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US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

theguardian.com

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Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#41

Post by vitally3643 »

potamic wrote: post #18

All these media people who write about markets need to adjust their perspectives on what a sell-off means. A 2% reduction for a market cap of 80 trillion dollars still leaves about 78 trillion dollars in the market. The way the market behaves when there's 78 trillion dollars would be very different from how it would if there were 20 trillion dollars. With volumes of these kind, the instrument becomes a currency in it…

> When everyone's money is in the market, would the market ever fall?

Yes? We had an entire great depression that tanked the global economy for a decade, and smaller dips since.

I regret to inform that the line does not, in fact, always go up. It does go down sometimes regardless of how much money is put into it.

Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#42

Post by vitally3643 »

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #33
camillomiller wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The dotcom bubble and this thing are nothing alike. Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet. It will only grow, and be ubiquitous in a decade. You dismantled your entire argument with this closing sentence. I do not doubt that gen AI is here to stay in some form, but that is not what we’re discussing here. What you’re showing as weak proof of demand…

Yeah, no. How much is invested doesn't matter. Look at who is investing. Every big tech firm (literally, each and every one of them). They'll make the money back, one way or another. Unless you're willing to claim that the entire tech sector goes poof tomorrow. They won't. They'll still be here 10-20-50 years, and they'll make their trillions back.

Who was investing in the dotcom bubble that wasn't "everyone"? This is an appeal to authority that doesn't check out.

Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#44

Post by camillomiller »

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #33
camillomiller wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The dotcom bubble and this thing are nothing alike. Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet. It will only grow, and be ubiquitous in a decade. You dismantled your entire argument with this closing sentence. I do not doubt that gen AI is here to stay in some form, but that is not what we’re discussing here. What you’re showing as weak proof of demand…

Yeah, no. How much is invested doesn't matter. Look at who is investing. Every big tech firm (literally, each and every one of them). They'll make the money back, one way or another. Unless you're willing to claim that the entire tech sector goes poof tomorrow. They won't. They'll still be here 10-20-50 years, and they'll make their trillions back.

I guess that if NitpickLawyer says we're fine, there's no problem with the capex we're seeing then. They won't go puff, they'll go Cisco.

Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#45

Post by NitpickLawyer »

owebmaster wrote: post #40
NitpickLawyer wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, no. How much is invested doesn't matter. Look at who is investing. Every big tech firm (literally, each and every one of them). They'll make the money back, one way or another. Unless you're willing to claim that the entire tech sector goes poof tomorrow. They won't. They'll still be here 10-20-50 years, and they'll make their trillions back.

I'm sure someone said that about Yahoo and eBay during the dotcom crash

Sure they did. And that's why I said "Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet."

But then again they also said the same thing about Amazon. And google. And (at one point) MS. And the others.

To reiterate: some might fail, but the field as a whole won't go anywhere. To look at the past 3 years, look at the current demands, and pretend that they'll all fail is insane. The proverbial cat is out of the bag, and it's not going back in.

Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#46

Post by throw0101d »

potamic wrote: post #18

All these media people who write about markets need to adjust their perspectives on what a sell-off means. A 2% reduction for a market cap of 80 trillion dollars still leaves about 78 trillion dollars in the market. The way the market behaves when there's 78 trillion dollars would be very different from how it would if there were 20 trillion dollars. With volumes of these kind, the instrument becomes a currency in it…

> When everyone's money is in the market, would the market ever fall?

Price discovery is at the margins: it's determined by (active) buyers and sellers.

If you're a (passive-ish) buy-and-hold kind of person you're generally not involved in the process (except on your (bi-)monthly purchase off your paycheque in for your retirement account).

So the active folks can cause prices to go down.

Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#47

Post by owebmaster »

NitpickLawyer wrote: post #45
owebmaster wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure someone said that about Yahoo and eBay during the dotcom crash

Sure they did. And that's why I said "Any of the large "products" can (and some probably will) fail, but the tech behind it is like the Internet." But then again they also said the same thing about Amazon. And google. And (at one point) MS. And the others. To reiterate: some might fail, but the field as a whole won't go anywhere. To look at the past 3 years, look at the current demands, and pretend that they'll all f…

You are creating fake arguments that weren't used to justify your answer. Nobody said all AI companies will go bankrupt.

Re: US AI stock sell-off shakes markets from Wall Street to Asia

#49

Post by cromka »

arisAlexis wrote: post #15
cromka wrote: post #14

"South Korea’s benchmark closed 10% down on Tuesday after the country’s largest chipmakers, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, both closed over 12% lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 3.5% at the close of trading." This is huge, isn't it? The conservative investors probably put their money into hardware companies, not directly into AI ones. So any scare of bubble-bursting affects memory manufacturing stock first and fo…

Hunix and Samsung are up 400% at least in a year what are you talking about ? Also what bubble?

I am talking about a stock dropping 10% overnight. Doesn't matter how much it grew, a 10% drop is a significant event, people start paying attention.
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