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Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

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Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#41

Post by vitally3643 »

VladVladikoff wrote: post #35

Recently I had been struggling with a computer that kept crashing randomly. I finally figured out it was a bad stick of DDR4. I jokingly said to some friends I should put it on Facebook marketplace for free for repair. Maybe I should, who knows maybe someone can reflow the chips?

Sell it outright on eBay. Someone will pull off the good chips and put them in a product.

It really is that bad out there for small businesses trying to make consumer goods. At work we had to recycle prototypes to salvage memory for a production run

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#42

Post by vitally3643 »

poly2it wrote: post #25

Does anybody have an understanding of when realistically there will be supply again? I've heard some positive sentiment about new developments in China, but that's not a market I am familiar with, and I haven't witnessed any effects of it thus far.

Two years at minimum. The manufacturing process simply takes that long to spool up.

That is, unless the hyperscalers all drop dead overnight. Then we'll be swimming in more chips than anyone would care to buy

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#43

Post by vitally3643 »

deadbabe wrote: post #23

People act like RAM is thousands of dollars now. I checked prices recently and while it’s pretty high, it’s not that bad for a component you just buy once and use for a long time. I’m still more concerned about the prices and availability of decent GPUs.

RAM prices are so bad that my business couldn't launch our product this year. RAM increases completely obliterated our profit margin, and would have required raising prices 30%. For a small business, that just doesn't work.

A lot of small businesses are getting absolutely wrecked by this.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#45

Post by p0w3n3d »

Okay, but... Are the new RAM players coming to the game? Or we'll be unable to afford a smartphone next year?

There were news that China has set up a new line, but tbh it's really bad that only a few companies are buying the ram at low low prices while others suffer. Economy and the invisible hand of the free market are failing their purpose.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#46

Post by p_l »

ggm wrote: post #20

Worldwide chip pricing and it's effects on the overall economy are fascinating. I expected by now somebody with a gen -2 class VLSI plant would swing into action and make for 2/3 the cost of the majors, and clean up in volume as the market absorbs the price shock. But no, instead it suits everyone in the pipeline to whine about it, but mark up prices instead. I am guessing the other side of this, the price drops will…

Unfortunately from what I understood a production line that makes "normal" digital chips generally can't make memory cells with concrete physical differences in the process pipeline

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#47

Post by qingcharles »

omgwtfbyobbq wrote: post #18
qingcharles wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I misremembered, it was $5 for 16GB DDR4 (not DDR3) sticks that I was paying on eBay. That might change the pricing. Here's one I found in my email: https://imgur.com/a/YWYpuzp

That's a great price for either, especially for DDR4. Only one stick though, right?

Yeah, I only bought single sticks at a time as I saw good deals on them. I only needed six sticks for three laptops. Just stuck a bunch of low bids and grabbed whatever I could. At the time there were tons going for $5-10 every day. Trying to stick to ones with free postage otherwise the postage would cost as much as the RAM back then.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#48

Post by imtringued »

ggm wrote: post #20

Worldwide chip pricing and it's effects on the overall economy are fascinating. I expected by now somebody with a gen -2 class VLSI plant would swing into action and make for 2/3 the cost of the majors, and clean up in volume as the market absorbs the price shock. But no, instead it suits everyone in the pipeline to whine about it, but mark up prices instead. I am guessing the other side of this, the price drops will…

The memory crunch started October 2025. DDR6 will come out in 2027. At that point you're investing new capacity into an obsolete technology.

If I was a memory company, I would try to bring DDR6 to the market as soon as possible. DDR6 allows high end CPU based server platforms to reach the memory bandwidth of an A100 or half a H100 without the costly HBM.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#49

Post by jononor »

rwmj wrote: post #29
ggm wrote: post #20

Worldwide chip pricing and it's effects on the overall economy are fascinating. I expected by now somebody with a gen -2 class VLSI plant would swing into action and make for 2/3 the cost of the majors, and clean up in volume as the market absorbs the price shock. But no, instead it suits everyone in the pipeline to whine about it, but mark up prices instead. I am guessing the other side of this, the price drops will…

Even on previous gen nodes it takes a year or two to bring a chip to full production.

Not only that, but such a node is fully booked with existing orders, many which are long term commitments with penalties if they fail to deliver.

Re: Memory crisis is getting so bad that even retro RAM prices are going to the Moon

#50

Post by ssl-3 »

lexicality wrote: post #10
michalpleban wrote: post #5

The headline made me fear that I will need to shell out a few more bucks for 4164 DRAM chips, but fortunately this does not seem to be the case. DDR3 is not "retro", for chrissakes.

It was introduced barely 20 years ago. By that rationale the PS3 is a retro console

It tracks. Let's put it into perspective:

By 2006 when the PS3 came 'round, the NES was definitely retro. It wasn't a livingroom staple anymore, and examples that survived were well-loved (either in the wear-and-tear way, in the appreciation-of-objects way, or both).

The NES was only ~21 years old at the time that the PS3 came out.

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