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Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

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41–50 of 113 posts

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#41
post #5

Economics calculator for Orbital vs Terrestrial Data Centers https://andrewmccalip.com/space-datacenters You can play around with the cost sliders to estimate the economics, but even being quite optimistic, space data centers cost ~2-3x of their terrestrial counterparts.

But, datacenter development in space does not deal with local NIMBYs, just centralized decision-makers that are easier to "influence".

The NIMBYs are coming for space launch sites, too.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Corrosion is one hell of a problem in salt water. I think the specific attraction to space is the copious massive amounts of free solar energy, isn't it? (In reality, they want to build the torment nexus at the Lagrange points because that would just be edgy-as-fuck)

> I think the specific attraction to space is the copious massive amounts of free solar energy, isn't it? Yes you get more energy harvest from solar above the atmosphere and can orient them to always be pointed towards the sun. But it is still so much more expensive than building out conventional solar in the Sun Belt, which is so much more expensive than just building a massive natural gas plant right next to people…

> People living near data centers have gotten wise to the fact that local people pay most of the externalities of data centers and AI, but the benefits mostly go elsewhere.

That's true of just about every industrial, commercial, civic, or residential site. It's the fundamental premise behind every NIMBY protest ever. The benefit of each individual site always runs disproportionately to people further away. It's only in the aggregate, i.e. each individual enjoying the cumulative externalized benefits from far-off, that the equation could ever balance.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#43
post #12
post #8

Why is everyone so focused on heat when cosmic rays randomly scrambling memory is going to be a much bigger problem?

Cosmic rays can probably be resolved with some parity bits and redundancy. Especially since these don't have to be located way up in geosynch, lower orbits get you more magnetosphere protection. Not that it isn't a problem, but I think heat dissipation will have the edge.

I worked at the architecture level on designs to mitigate signal corruption inside the asic. I don't remember the exact numbers, and obviously it depends on the design. but you need to add error detection and correction on every path (busses, mixes, registers, function units, etc). the number I seem to recall was a 25% area overhead and a nominal decrease in clock rate. this was for an earth-bound very large machine, so idk if that would be sufficient for space. usually those designs have much larger nodes and much slower clock rates. primarily because of damage caused by ionizing radiation that accumulates over time.

so sure, the heat issue seems fatal, but rad-hard designs will certainly have a bottom line impact

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#44
post #5

Economics calculator for Orbital vs Terrestrial Data Centers https://andrewmccalip.com/space-datacenters You can play around with the cost sliders to estimate the economics, but even being quite optimistic, space data centers cost ~2-3x of their terrestrial counterparts.

To remove heat by radiation there's a big benefit to running the GPUs hotter as the radiation will be proportional to the fourth power of temperature. This resource is using 85 deg C versus 60 deg C for OP which will improve cooling performance.

If Nvidia/SpaceX can make the chips run at a higher temperature that would help a lot although I assume it would have already been done if it were possible. Another option is to add a heat pump to raise radiator temperature if the smaller radiator mass can pay for the heat pump mass.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#46
post #11

Only a single order of magnitude of cost? So a $4b data center on Earth delivers the same value as a $40b data center in Space? So if you have greater than a 95% operating margin and capacity constraints (either due to nation environmental law, power limits, or other such blockers) then this is a no-brainer - a 95% operating margin becomes a 50% operating margin. The return on capital is much much lower so you have t…

It assumes $44/kg to launch into orbit. Idk where that came from if it's a musk claim or what but it's ludicrous against current costs. Currently still at thousands/kg and dropping but nowhere near $44 and I haven't heard anyone claim that's likely who isn't selling a rocket company.

That seems pretty cheap, like, can I launch my cat's ashes into space or something for $50?

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It assumes $44/kg to launch into orbit. Idk where that came from if it's a musk claim or what but it's ludicrous against current costs. Currently still at thousands/kg and dropping but nowhere near $44 and I haven't heard anyone claim that's likely who isn't selling a rocket company.

The plan is to launch from Earth in the beginning stages and then switch to launching from the Moon which has no atmosphere so you don't need rockets and can use an electromagnetic gun instead. That requires satellite manufacturing on the Moon and I guess the minerals required will come from asteroid mining. That's my understanding of what Elon said about how it's going to work.

So the majority of the hardware should stay on the moon where latency isn't so critical. There the cooling won't be the problem.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#48
post #8

Why is everyone so focused on heat when cosmic rays randomly scrambling memory is going to be a much bigger problem?

I mean, LLMs are already a pile of stochastic output .. maybe that just adds to the fun? /s

Finally, the classic BOFH excuse of sunspots causing issues will be true

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#49
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But, datacenter development in space does not deal with local NIMBYs, just centralized decision-makers that are easier to "influence".

The NIMBYs are coming for space launch sites, too.

That particular concern is currently covered as far as SpaceX is concerned since it launches under DoD coverage. See the California Coastal Commission and the fact that they had to apologize etc. for attempted overreach.

Re: Thermodynamics rules future orbital data centers

#50
post #5

Economics calculator for Orbital vs Terrestrial Data Centers https://andrewmccalip.com/space-datacenters You can play around with the cost sliders to estimate the economics, but even being quite optimistic, space data centers cost ~2-3x of their terrestrial counterparts.

They'll pay the price if it means their data centers are immune to the anger of the commoners who are being surveilled, analyzed, and manipulated by systems running on these data centers.
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