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Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

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41–50 of 91 posts

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#41

For me it depends on who you listen to If you're following a bunch of people who are from LLM labs, you're going to be more incentivised to tokenmaxx because it's in the Lab's best interest tonget you to behave that way. Practically, many companies aren't labs with endless runway. Companies hopefully follow a PnL model. And when you look at things with that lens, many of the times the LLM use case falls apart. You're…

I'll take the contrary position and say that I think the "tokenmaxxing" we've previously seen was useful (but shouldn't continue indefinitely). My TLDR position is that TokenMaxxing was a way to force discovery of Product Market Fit.

The push by companies to incorporate AI into everything is (depending on the company) either hype and cargo-culting or it was an attempt by management to (1) try and discover if/what new workflows or tools could use it and (2) force the haters to use as it got better.

Where I work, there is an obvious split between people who have been willing to use AI, and those that hated it from day 1 and mocked the "stochastic parrots". Senior folks were disproportionately haters, and generally didn't see much productivity lift from early AI stuff. They strongly resisted the mandates to use AI, and completely missed the "agentic" inflection point that other colleagues experienced. The more willing users saw Claude Code/agents and were able to experience this as the genuine benefit it can be. Now that the more senior folks are using agentic programming, they're genuinely able to maintain code quality and see meaningful speed improvements in coding tasks.

Today, tokenmaxxing doesn't make sense because we found the product-market-fit of agentic coding. Now that most (?) employees are onboard with using it, the industry can shift focus to cost-effective usage and positive-ROI usage. For example, Uber shifting to a fixed per-employee token budget.

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#42

For me it depends on who you listen to If you're following a bunch of people who are from LLM labs, you're going to be more incentivised to tokenmaxx because it's in the Lab's best interest tonget you to behave that way. Practically, many companies aren't labs with endless runway. Companies hopefully follow a PnL model. And when you look at things with that lens, many of the times the LLM use case falls apart. You're…

Human systems are not good at rapidly adapting to change.

AI could be absolutely perfect and we'd still struggle to deploy it in a value generating way simply because it will exceed our ability to adapt.

So tokenmaxxing might be the wrong thing to do, but only because it's focussing on the wrong problem rather than because it doesn't actually work.

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that will tank literally all AI companies immediately as, sure, some will pay it, but by far most won't. Anthropic will be gone in 1 day, so will OpenAI.

you allocate tokens from top down - first exclusivity deals - Citadel pays $10 bil to get exclusivity access to GPT-6 for 3 months before anyone else, then you price it $1000/mil, then whatever compute is not used you sell GPT-5.9 at $500/mil...

AI companies are speed running the old Cable company model.

Hoping your customer base is so old they forget to cancel the subscription might not work so well this time. “Popcorn eating ensues”

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#45
post #20

With no details, a bird told me of a project which estimated using several millions of tokens per day to automate a team work which got laid off. The operation is now a mess, there is no one willing to be considered liable and since the cheap model they used is about to be retired the company is going to see a 4x increase in price at least. I have the feeling that the age of 'i can't be blamed by AI stuff' will be a…

I don't doubt that the operation as a whole is a disaster, but they should be able to avoid the price increase by using one of the many other cheap models like DeepSeek V4 Flash right?

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#46
deepseek pro and flash are dirt cheap.

kimi-k2.6 can do a pretty damn good job with vision for optimizing ui design workloads in a loop. not cheap but significantly cheaper than anthropic.

mimo 3 is jsut pretty damn good when you need a high end reasoning model - also reletivly affordable.

I was able to run gemma and do some coding locally on a 32 gb machine. it was slow as molasses but the fact that it worked at all on a local machine that wasn't desinged around AI workloads is great.

Its only a tokenpocalypse if you rely on these closed and frankly overpriced american models. is opus better than kimik2.6? arguably yes but not 16 times better from what I've been seeing.

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#47
post #33

I think it is easy to make some ragebait doomer articles with eye catching headlines. There are a lot of people who are ready to eat up AI catastrophism because something about apocalyptic predictions and catastrophism seems to attract certain kind of doomer-pilled people. Here are my concrete predictions 1. Token costs will come down and performance will go up 2. Everyone will spend even more on LLMs not less - the…

> 3. AI Companies will be profitable but many of the current crop will never return money to investors. I largely agree with you, but the huge investments currently being made will be very hard to get a return on. Token costs will come down, performance will go up, and you want to be in the business of selling the picks & shovels, not doing the mining. Which is of course why nvidia, google & TSMC are in pretty good p…

Respectfully, do you want a bet that AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic can't become profitable?

I mean this is a sort of conspiracy theory and I genuinely don't know why people think AI is particularly hard to get money back from?

> I largely agree with you, but the huge investments currently being made will be very hard to get a return on.

Why do you find it huge? Anthropic went from $1B to $44B revenue in a few months and this is unprecedented.

1. The margins on inference are huge

2. There is genuine moat because AI models have personalities strengths and weaknesses that's so they are definitely not fungible

I think a lot of handwaving goes on but it comes in the form of some latent concern that AI might just be profitable. But the reality is that it will be.

None of the "selling picks and shovels" analogies will stick.

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#48

I think it is easy to make some ragebait doomer articles with eye catching headlines. There are a lot of people who are ready to eat up AI catastrophism because something about apocalyptic predictions and catastrophism seems to attract certain kind of doomer-pilled people. Here are my concrete predictions 1. Token costs will come down and performance will go up 2. Everyone will spend even more on LLMs not less - the…

[deleted]

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#49

Even on the consumer side AI providers are enshitifying the plans. Everyone saw this coming three months ago plus. The corporate side seems to be well... stupid? Execs asking their people to burn tokens do not understand the politics and cadence of business. Corporations do not actually demand more work to be completed in the way we traditionally think. Creating a lot of stuff in a corporation tends to naturally bani…

Yes. As makers we tend to assume that the more that is made the better, and that simply by having lots of (shiny!) stuff we will get paid/honored/favored etc, whereas in fact often this stuff becomes someone's problem somewhere.

Re: Is This the Dawn of the Tokenpocalypse?

#50
post #20

With no details, a bird told me of a project which estimated using several millions of tokens per day to automate a team work which got laid off. The operation is now a mess, there is no one willing to be considered liable and since the cheap model they used is about to be retired the company is going to see a 4x increase in price at least. I have the feeling that the age of 'i can't be blamed by AI stuff' will be a…

To me this is clearly a skill issue. Several millions of tokens per day is peanuts, even if uncached. gpt-5.5 is $5 per million of input tokens.

Anybody doing things seriously understand how to optimize their workflows for smaller models once they start to lock in processes.

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