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How does one simply reject it? You make it sound oh so easy. As if the taxman is a made up idea.
What are you even trying to say? Where does the taxman enter into this?
The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
41–50 of 130 posts
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is like ANY company. What company will last forever. Not many.
Not every company trades at 387 PE on 2%-3% growth. I can't name any that do. F sells an order of magnitude more cars (~$190 billion in revenue), and has a market cap of $62.8 billion vs TSLA market cap of $1.59 trillion. TSLA is ridiculous. Any sane investor would look at those numbers and run as far and as fast as they can.
Somehow people will read this fact and say it's not overvalued because it hasn't crashed yet.
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#43So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana... Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive. They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in agg…
To be fair, few could have anticipated that Tesla and Musk would be unaffected by valid scrutiny and criticism.
This is also addressed in the article:
> E. DON’T TRY TO SHORT SPACEX!!
> Elon Musk is a cult figure. Moreover, he has again and again proven himself immune to any meaningful market, legal, or regulatory scrutiny.
> Musk’s detractors have been correct about Tesla’s terrible fundamentals, its Full Self-Driving lies, its robotaxi fantasies, its shaky accounting. But when they have imagined these things might affect the stock price, they have been wrong.
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#44Falcon 9 proved SpaceX can deliver on hard engineering promises. Why isn't that track record factored into the business case here?
Is the argument that SpaceX the business fails, or just that the IPO price is disconnected from reality?
How much of the index fund manipulation concern applies to any mega-cap IPO, vs. something unique to SpaceX?
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#45So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana... Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive. They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in agg…
Grudge? I would say he was spot on. And he still is.
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#46[flagged]
I doubt your sentiment. Index funds are for people who don't want to know about the details and put the work in. They go by general recommendations. Now the underlying rules got changed, undeniably in favor and through pressure of few individuals. Where I come from, we call that a rug pull
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Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#47This is just eds. Same guy here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TSLAQ He's got some kind of beef with Elon and has predicted TSLA stock will crash many times.
It is reasonable to predict TSLA stock will, someday, drop to something roughly reflective of the value of the company. It has a long way to fall to reach that point, but, there's no reason to think it won't happen eventually. The market can remain irrational for a long time, but the facts are what they are.
Well, if Tesla gets merged into SpaceX at a record valuation (as was rumored is the intention recently), people with short positions would end up shorting SpaceX.
There are a lot of high stakes bets wrapped up in that company at this point already. AI, orbital launch business, communications networks, a little bit of Twitter/X, etc. And soon robots, grid battery, solar panels, electrical vehicles, autonomous driving, etc. They don't all have to work out to justify the combined valuation. Of course the facts are that quite a few of these lines of businesses are generating many billions in revenue already. It's at least a more diversified bet if a merge happens. Which might be why some share holders might prefer this. I don't have shares but I think that's a pretty rational attitude.
Still a risky bet of course. But betting that it will all fail might be the riskier one. Maybe it will just end up somewhere in between and not quite live up to expectations but still be a business generating lots of revenue with some healthy growth.
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#48How can a public sale ever be a theft?
Most have their pension automatically track index. Nasdaq changes rules so that the pension funds are forced to buy stock while very volatile and likely overpriced.
Those poor pension funds, unable to make their own decisions. Forced to keep all of their money in $NDX forever.
It must be terrible to be so utterly powerless.
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is like ANY company. What company will last forever. Not many.
Apple and Microsoft seem to be doing okay after many decades. Edison is 200 years old and is on the stock market. It is about finding the right product that will last. Tesla could be one of them if it can survive the next decade.
AAPL and MSFT have a P/E an order of magnitude lower than TSLA whilst both having revenue growth % yoy in the teens. They both make over a $100b in PROFIT a year. TSLA's? $4b and shrinking btw. Their highest P/E's since 2005 was under 50. AAPL reached 100 in June 2003 (around the time of the iTunes Store release.. mid iPod era but pre iPhone).
Comparing with MSFT and AAPL makes TSLA look even more insane.
Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century
#50So this guy was pretty active in the TeslaQ community. They believed Tesla to be (extremely) overvalued in 2017-2019 on the grounds that they would never become profitable.. or something. They lost a lot of money shorting Tesla. https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91aha1/montana... Anyways, seems like he's keeping the grudge alive. They were right about a couple of things back then. But majorly wrong in agg…
To be fair, they were overvalued in those days as well. Just because the on-paper value went up doesn’t make their statements false, it just means we’ve continued the charade.
Or maybe that's just what value is, what someone else would pay for something.