41–50 of 53 posts
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You should short the stock. If you think it’s a big scam and not actually worth being in the top 500 US companies, you could make a lot of money.
You're ignoring the fact that timing has a lot to do with a short position. There was a long period where shorting Enron would've ruined you, and a short period when it'd make you rich.
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>I can assure you building rockets isn't rocket science. This is mind bogglingly wrong. “[Rocket Science] looks hard and is harder than it looks” is the classic line. Anyone in the industry will tell you how extremely difficult rockets are. Look at Blue Origin, all the money in the world and it still blows up on the pad. Look at ULA, largest aerospace companies in the world with institutional aerospace talent, backed…
So what is the secret sauce SpaceX brings to the table? Obviously they have top talent, but if it's not a matter of funding or talent, what makes them stand out?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You should short the stock. If you think it’s a big scam and not actually worth being in the top 500 US companies, you could make a lot of money.
not everyone responds to a perceived social ill by thinking "maybe I should gamble"
It’s an incentive for people to root out corruption and graft. If you truly believe that SpaceX is a big scam and it’s not actually worth enough to be in the S&P 500, then taking a short position not only will net you a bundle of cash, it will do the public a service by helping to expose a fraud and prevent future companies from doing the same thing.
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not everyone responds to a perceived social ill by thinking "maybe I should gamble"
Shorting is the best mechanism for exposing scams and frauds in public markets, in fact that’s really the only reason it exists. It’s an incentive for people to root out corruption and graft. If you truly believe that SpaceX is a big scam and it’s not actually worth enough to be in the S&P 500, then taking a short position not only will net you a bundle of cash, it will do the public a service by helping to expose a…
Why should people invest in SpaceX? Because they're going to be propped up by the US government for a long time. Nations need a way to get to space. SpaceX has launched more rockets than anyone in the last few years. Including 3x more than China's space agency.
Having a global internet service with at cost launch prices is about 3-8 trillion dollar business. That's one product line at Space X.
250k people in my city x $4/lemonade x 365 days per year
Why should people invest in SpaceX? Because they're going to be propped up by the US government for a long time. Nations need a way to get to space. SpaceX has launched more rockets than anyone in the last few years. Including 3x more than China's space agency.
Having a global internet service with at cost launch prices is about 3-8 trillion dollar business. That's one product line at Space X.
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Having a global internet service with at cost launch prices is about 3-8 trillion dollar business. That's one product line at Space X.
BS check: $8T is $1000 per person on this planet. A healthy P/E ratio of 25 would translate to earning $40/year in profit from every person on the planet. SpaceX/Starlink obviously doesn’t just walk in and get everyone as a customer though. They have roughly 10 million customers right now. Let’s be generous and say they have 20 million. That $8T works out at $400K per customer valuation which at a 50 P/E would mean $…
$8T/(unreasonably high 50 P/E)/200M customers/12 months = $66.67 profit (not revenue) per customer per month.
The moment Musk's reality distortion bubble stops functioning, his brands' PE ratios are likely to revert to the 5-15 levels of comparable businesses.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
not everyone responds to a perceived social ill by thinking "maybe I should gamble"
Shorting is the best mechanism for exposing scams and frauds in public markets, in fact that’s really the only reason it exists. It’s an incentive for people to root out corruption and graft. If you truly believe that SpaceX is a big scam and it’s not actually worth enough to be in the S&P 500, then taking a short position not only will net you a bundle of cash, it will do the public a service by helping to expose a…
That societal benefit is mostly worthless to investors.
Investors need to capture a good return (risk adjusted) to have any incentive to expose frauds or scams.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Having a global internet service with at cost launch prices is about 3-8 trillion dollar business. That's one product line at Space X.
Genuinely curious about the math behind this. https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/754891 this index represents a decent chunk of the worldwide telecommunication industry. It's only worth $1.45T in total. They roll trucks and dig trenches to provide internet service - and provide other telecom services besides. My gut tells me that's cheaper than launching rockets. And these companies already provide service to most of…