Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#41

Post by layoric »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

> the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up Stock prices don't have to crash. They can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress. Debt binges, on the other hand, tend to go bust with a bang. But after the recent private-credit scare, the AI build-out has been predominantly financed with stock. (I think.)

Hasn't there been a _lot_ of debt to buy up Nvidia GPUs? I follow this stuff somewhat closely and it feels intentionally confusing, so I've likely lost track.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#42

Post by aurareturn »

jmyeet wrote: post #17

So what people seem to be unaware of or are purposely ignoring is that OpenAI and Anthropic have invested trillions in a rapdily depreciating asset. There was a HN post from a day or two ago where someone bought a V100 for 150 pounds and connected it to their computer. Well that was a $10k GPU in 2017. That's the fate of H100/B100 GPUs in 5-10 years (and I suspect closer to 5). What do you do if you've invested $1 tr…

Source on the trillions invested?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#43

Post by JumpCrisscross »

bunderbunder wrote: post #33
aurareturn wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.

I can’t imagine them actually being bullish about exponential growth, when both seem instead to be stagnating. I’m more inclined to believe they’re just maintaining a level of hype in public because that’s what you do.

> when both seem instead to be stagnating

What's the evidence for Anthropic stagnating?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#44

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

> the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up Stock prices don't have to crash. They can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress. Debt binges, on the other hand, tend to go bust with a bang. But after the recent private-credit scare, the AI build-out has been predominantly financed with stock. (I think.)

> Equity bubbles don't have to crash. Prices can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress.

Is there is historical evidence for that? As someone who used to follow Jeremy Grantham a lot (he considered himself a "bubble historian"), IIRC every bubble he studied always mean reverted, and it usually (maybe always, can't remember) overshot on the downside during the correction.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#45

Post by JumpCrisscross »

jackyinger wrote: post #38
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the accelerated S&P 500 inclusion of SpaceX To be clear, S&P hasn't announced a decision on this yet.

Perhaps they’re afraid announcement would trigger divestment

> Perhaps they’re afraid announcement would trigger divestment

S&P don't get a choice around whether they announce their methodology or not.

That said, the rule change at the NASDAQ 100 doesn't seem to have impacted pricing or allocation. I can't imagine that many people are that concerned about this. (I posted the public-comment request from S&P to HN [1]. The response was crickets.)

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48054324

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#46

Post by irjustin »

hungryhobbit wrote: post #14
timmg wrote: post #8

The way I've been thinking about it: there is too much money trying to pour into the market. That's why valuations are so high. Maybe getting more of these big private companies public will bring valuations down a bit. (Just my impression. No math or financial studies behind it :)

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements.

It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!?

> Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this and acted on it, you would've missed 3-4 +10%/yr returns.

As Buffet says: You can't time the market; be in it.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#47

Post by JumpCrisscross »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #44
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up Stock prices don't have to crash. They can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress. Debt binges, on the other hand, tend to go bust with a bang. But after the recent private-credit scare, the AI build-out has been predominantly financed with stock. (I think.)

> Equity bubbles don't have to crash. Prices can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress. Is there is historical evidence for that? As someone who used to follow Jeremy Grantham a lot (he considered himself a "bubble historian"), IIRC every bubble he studied always mean reverted, and it usually (maybe always, can't remember) overshot on the downside during the correction.

> IIRC every bubble he studied always mean reverted

This really depends on how we're defining these things. Let's call a stock-market bubble a period of elevated multiples. That can mean revert by prices decreasing while earnings stay constant or by prices staying constant and earnings rising. (Alternatively, both earnings and multiples can rise and fall.)

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#49

Post by aurareturn »

irjustin wrote: post #46
hungryhobbit wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up

This is one of those "everyone who dies, breaths air" statements. It's frustrating people who parrot it think they're smart by saying it to others with no basis and finally when it does happen they're like SEE SEE!? > Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up And this is the more important part. As long as you're People have been saying the crash has been coming since 2022. If you believed this…

I was old enough to remember the 08 crash. Then the market starting recovering in 2011/2012 and the sentiment was that the system would crash again soon like 08. Turns out, it was an amazing time to invest.

Post 08 crash, all sorts of conspiracy websites like Zero Hedge were popular saying how the world economy would keep crashing.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#50

Post by JumpCrisscross »

layoric wrote: post #41
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the crash (that we all know is coming) will do that. Until then, history teaches that we'll just keep going up and up Stock prices don't have to crash. They can just stagnate while profits catch up and multiples compress. Debt binges, on the other hand, tend to go bust with a bang. But after the recent private-credit scare, the AI build-out has been predominantly financed with stock. (I think.)

Hasn't there been a _lot_ of debt to buy up Nvidia GPUs? I follow this stuff somewhat closely and it feels intentionally confusing, so I've likely lost track.

> Hasn't there been a _lot_ of debt to buy up Nvidia GPUs?

I believe that's been concentrated at the hyperscaler layer, and subsided when the aforementioned private-credit scare reared its head. (I haven't heard a big datacenter debt deal announced in a while. Though of course that doesn't mean they aren't being done.)

Post reply on HN