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How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

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Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#41

Post by sdf4j »

ekidd wrote: post #25
yCombLinks wrote: post #16

> The overlapping AGI definition I use here is "Most purely cognitive labor is automatable at better quality, speed, and cost than humans". That's a poor definition. Nowhere have I seen cheapness as being a requirement to count as AGI. If we have something that can do everything people can do and more, but it costs a lot means it's not AGI?

If it's merely human equivalent but somehow costs a lot more than actual humans, then it's actually pretty marginal until the cost comes down. There are a lot of humans. So you could technically have AGI without entering a true AGI era. "95% as good as an average Harvard graduate across the board, but it costs $5 million/year to run" is impressive and scientifically interesting, but not economically transformative. B…

Plenty of C-level executives have salaries around that number. Replacing them with AGI would be cost-effective. Cost is contingent, shouldn't be part of the AGI definition.

Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#42

Post by [deleted] »

coldtea wrote: post #40
zeafoamrun wrote: post #38

One of my reports just sent me a giant design doc that Claude enthusiastically generated packed with plausible looking technical detail. Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all. So I'd say as answer to the question posed by this title: a while.

> Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all Isn't that like 90% of project plans by pre-LLM managers too?

[deleted]

Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#43

Post by cautiouscat »

zeafoamrun wrote: post #38

One of my reports just sent me a giant design doc that Claude enthusiastically generated packed with plausible looking technical detail. Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all. So I'd say as answer to the question posed by this title: a while.

Yeah but these models are the worst they’ll ever be! They’ll get better! You need to give it better context! Did you try multiple agents?

Sarcasm aside, I am just so tired.

Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#44

Post by coldtea »

dwohnitmok wrote: post #22

The current HN submission title ("AGI timelines shift with whichever lab is dominant") is very bad. It is neither the title of the article nor is it the thrust of the content. The title of the article is "How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?" The main point of the article is summarized by its intro: "Recently, though, I noticed that many great researchers have now published two or more precise forecasts,…

There was a ChatGPT era, and now an Anthropic era (less so though than the initial boom was 'ChatGPT dominated'), but there never was an xAI, Meta, and Gemini era.

Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#45

Post by peab »

coldtea wrote: post #40
zeafoamrun wrote: post #38

One of my reports just sent me a giant design doc that Claude enthusiastically generated packed with plausible looking technical detail. Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all. So I'd say as answer to the question posed by this title: a while.

> Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all Isn't that like 90% of project plans by pre-LLM managers too?

Yeah. I find a lot of the gripes people have a bout LLMs, these days, could also be said about employees.

Like, "the agent went and did a bunch of unrelated changes for the task I asked it to do!"... Have you ever worked with other engineers? This happens all the time

Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#48

Post by Mallory_Ringess »

zeafoamrun wrote: post #38

One of my reports just sent me a giant design doc that Claude enthusiastically generated packed with plausible looking technical detail. Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all. So I'd say as answer to the question posed by this title: a while.

That's because you're still in the loop to point out it is trying to solve a misguided problem. Once it is LLMs all the way up - or at least far enough up so that the layers above it don't have the required technical knowledge to deduce whether the machines are following the correct track - they'll be solving problems 'till the cows come home no matter whether they're worth solving.

Re: How long until AI automates all cognitive labor?

#49

Post by izietto »

zeafoamrun wrote: post #38

One of my reports just sent me a giant design doc that Claude enthusiastically generated packed with plausible looking technical detail. Unfortunately the problem it's trying to solve is completely misguided and we shouldn't be doing it at all. So I'd say as answer to the question posed by this title: a while.

Your point of view is flawed. You should take the ratio of good / bad AI plans activity and compare it with the same ratio by human work.
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