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Internet traffic in Iran increasing

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Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#41

Post by zuzululu »

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink.

Those two were supposed to be backstops against any externally induced regime change. Now any country at odds with United States currently owning nukes is looking at escalating straight to warning shot doctrine. Having enriched uraniums or some land based ICBM is no longer enough. Something tactical and small enough to be used to limit nuclear fallout but make regional allies absolutely against engaging in war at behest of the US seems like it would test US nuclear umbrella.

ex) Any NATO countries willing to have a low yield tactical nuke detonate near their border but inside a disputed territory/land? Which non-nuclear EU country is willing to erase themselves off the map to shield their European brothers?

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#42

Post by NordStreamYacht »

nostrademons wrote: post #12

The weird thing is: Iran seems to be acting like the war is ending, and that their peace plan has been accepted, and yet now it's the Trump administration that says it's all fake news. In the past the Trump administration has claimed the war was ending and Iran said (truthfully) it's all fake news. It makes me wonder if something has shifted with the internal power dynamics in Iran, and the civilian government at lea…

> Does U.S. intelligence know something we don't?

Unlikely. They thought a dose of shock and awe would get people out on the streets for a rapid regime change and it didn't work.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#43

Post by taneq »

zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

Re. point 2: It is if you own Starlink. :S

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#44

Post by taneq »

platinumrad wrote: post #35
dakolli wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's the middle of the night in the region, so I don't expect very many human internet users from Israel or Iran right now. This may also explain why so much of the traffic coming out of Iran is flagged as bot traffic. I agree that a significant portion of urban middle class Iranians have been online the entire time, but it's a group that is roughly analogous to the people in China who go out of their way to use a VP…

What kind of crazy person would be on the internet on the middle of the night? None of us normal people would ever do that! cough cough

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#45

Post by whatever1 »

zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

I really thought that Russia would use such a device to end the war in Ukraine. Hopefully they will not.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#46

Post by the_af »

twothreeone wrote: post #33
nostrademons wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could be a trust-building move, open up a little and see if it's reciprocated, although if it's a trust-building move the right response is probably not to threaten to obliterate them, or to launch more military strikes. Although this conflict has seen both sides consistently choose the wrong response in basically every situation, which is why it's still going on.

Yeah, it's not even clear what the true motivation is from the US side.. "get the Uranium out" by itself doesn't make sense, because (a) they can just enrich again (or even be supplied directly by Russia/NK) and (b) even if they build nukes they'll never be able to reach US territory. If they wanted to destabilize the regime, they would have needed to actively push an alternative group or leader. If they wanted to pr…

Everyone is lost about what exactly was the US strategy here. Everybody understands Iran wasn't a threat to the US that warranted immediate action. Mostly everyone understands the aftermath of this war looks to be worse than the previous situation.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#47

Post by rayiner »

zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

> For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners

I think the Iran war was a dumb idea, but you’re repeating propaganda.[1] Khamenei called the shots in Iran. The country had a nuclear weapons program because he wanted it. Iran isn’t an autocracy in the same way China isn’t an autocracy—the mullahs run the country in the same way as the CCP runs China. But major defense programs don’t happen without the supreme leader’s approval.

Khamenei was also a hardliner. Over the last two decades, there have been many moderate candidates for Iran’s presidency. But the Guardian Council banned all of them from running. (The Guardian Council has six members appointed by the Ayatollah, and six appointed by the Chief Justice, who is appointed by the Ayatollah.)

[1] I find it interesting people feel the need to make excuses for the Iranian regime. I guess non-interference with a sovereign country’s internal affairs is not, by itself, a very satisfying principle. So there is a desire to make it seem like Iran’s leadership didn’t deserve to get blown up.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#48

Post by taneq »

wunderlotus wrote: post #39
dakolli wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Don't trust 5 eyes (this includes CF) What are CF & 5 eyes?

Not sure about CF but 5 Eyes is an information sharing agreement to get around laws regarding governments spying on their own citizens. So eg. Australia wants to surveil some guy but legally can’t. Well, they can’t help it if the US spies on that guy, right? And if the US later hands the Australian government an envelope with some information in it, that’s perfectly legal, right? And later the same thing takes place in reverse, quite a coincidence really.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#49

Post by mgiampapa »

taneq wrote: post #43
zuzululu wrote: post #41

Any country watching Iran situation should take a way a few things: For one khamenei was known to be against nuclear weapons and was a sort of a peace keeper between hardliners leaning towards lifting sanctions but seems to have been forced into a lame duck through narratives inside and outside along with internal leaks. Two, its no longer possible to shut down the internet with Starlink. Those two were supposed to b…

Re. point 2: It is if you own Starlink. :S

The US Government can own and nationalize it in a heartbeat if they want to. Even other Billionaires hate Musk.

Re: Internet traffic in Iran increasing

#50

Post by t-3 »

lysace wrote: post #10
tptacek wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Iranian-sponsored threat actors have had network access throughout this entire conflict.

[flagged]

If you think propaganda is why people are upset about Gaza, you don't understand the politics and history. Diasporas produce grassroots domestic interest and activism, no propaganda needed. 70 years of forcing people out of their homes makes for a pretty significant diasporic population.
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