In terms of damage to society it's irrelevant who the winners are within the Polymarket system, it matters how much the insiders playing on Polymarket have an effect to the outside world of politics and economics. If Polymarket gambling increases corruption and destructive effects on society it simply has to be regulated or made illegal.
Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
41–50 of 167 posts
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don’t see why it’s AI, but even if it is, it’s better than most human comments so the complaint should be downvoted.
Take a look at the user's history, it's more obvious in context. It has a lot of claude-specific tells which are noticeable if you've spent time working with claude. AI-generated comments are against the HN guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
phrenology
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
"predicting the future" and "correct analysis of all available information" often aren't all that different.
Not really. Not all players in prediction markets are rational players. A good chunk of it are there for entertainment, and analyze things incorrectly; you can take the other side of those trades, and you won't need to predict the future.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
this comment was clearly written by AI. please don't do that.
Not sure why you were downvoted/flagged, because you're right. It is also quite an insightful comment worthy of discussion so I'm a little conflicted.
It looks completely fine and plausible to me. Which is worrying.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#45[dead]
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/resolution
Interesting. Any (in)famous UMA vote debates? Or interesting Unknown/50-50 outcome resolutions?
First one that came to mind: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/07/wager-platform...
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Take a look at the user's history, it's more obvious in context. It has a lot of claude-specific tells which are noticeable if you've spent time working with claude. AI-generated comments are against the HN guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
Maybe the guidelines should be changed? Something about: don’t complain about comments just because they’re AI.
I'm not complaining "just" because it's AI.
I'm complaining because it's AI, and also slop.
> resolves into "cross-venue infrastructure" — which is also a more durable edge than within-venue alpha
anybody who actually trades knows that on these markets, "cross venue infrastructure" (aka vibe coding some exchange api integrations) is much less important / durable than actual alpha.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
Take a look at the user's history, it's more obvious in context. It has a lot of claude-specific tells which are noticeable if you've spent time working with claude. AI-generated comments are against the HN guidelines https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html#generated
phrenology
if you're not able to tell that OP's comment was AI slop, then you probably don't have much insight to contribute to the conversation either.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure why you were downvoted/flagged, because you're right. It is also quite an insightful comment worthy of discussion so I'm a little conflicted.
I don’t see why it’s AI, but even if it is, it’s better than most human comments so the complaint should be downvoted.
it's only "better than human comments" if you have no idea what profitable trading looks like. it's a very-very thin mildly convincing veneer over what is fundamentally slop.
Re: Who wins and who loses in prediction markets? Evidence from Polymarket
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't think that's surprising because the alternative would be that some people are able to predict the future. Whatever strategy one might figure out that works is long term destined to fail, as other people start using them. The only real way to make money there is by providing liquidity since it's a zero sum game. For the stock market this is not true because it's not zero sum, it grows over time.
There is alternative to being “able to predict the future”, which is “I already know the future” or “I can change the future”
Someone flips a coin and looks at it, what orders are you willing to put in?
The potential for insiders should be represented by a complete loss of liquidity.