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Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

natesilver.net

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Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#41

Post by legitster »

ninth_ant wrote: post #31

> I did too much bragging in the media and didn’t anticipate the extent to which public opinion toward FiveThirtyEight would shift once we became a corporate-backed incumbent rather than an eccentric upstart Can’t speak for everyone else, but it wasn’t this for me. It was about 2016 presidential that lost me. He tries to justify this later about how theirs was better than other outlets but I don’t care. Call it emoti…

If I say you have a 50% chance to win a coin flip and you lose it, that doesn't mean I'm wrong.

A key thing though is 538 did regularly test the calibration their models: https://web.archive.org/web/20190410030104/https://fivethirt...

> "What you’ll find, though, is that our calibration has generally been very, very good. For instance, out of the 5,589 events (between sports and politics combined) that we said had a 70 chance of happening (rounded to the nearest 5 percent), they in fact occurred 71 percent of the time. Or of the 55,853 events that we said had about a 5 percent chance of occurring, they happened 4 percent of the time."

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#42

Post by browningstreet »

divbzero wrote: post #12

Some of Disney’s most valuable properties—ESPN, Pixar, Marvel, Star Wars—were acquired. FiveThirtyEight may be smaller, but it should be in Disney’s self-interest to set things right and earn a reputation for being a good home for acquisitions.

They're running with their heads down, for at least as long as the current administration exists.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#43

Post by wredcoll »

SilverElfin wrote: post #29
superfrank wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How so? To me it seems like the exact opposite of what's happened with Star Wars in the last 20 years. 538 was purchased and then left to wither and die where as Disney seems intent on squeezing every last penny from the Star Wars franchise by using the IP as much as possible

Disney removed a lot of the earlier IP from the official Star Wars storyline shortly after acquiring it. That IP was much better than the complete mess and politicization of Star Wars that happened in the sequels. Sure they are trying to squeeze money out of it - and maybe some of the TV shows are tolerable - but they killed the brand and its best content in the process.

Good point, Star Wars was famously not about politics. Very apolitical.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#44

Post by armchairhacker »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #35
armchairhacker wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to AllSides, many outlets moved left, although some did move right: https://www.allsides.com/blog/AllSides-Media-Bias-Rating-Ove... It and https://mediabiasfactcheck.com say NYTimes “leans left” and is “left-center” respectively. What’s an example that you believe highlights NYTimes moving rightward?

you should scroll through AllSides' twitter before trusting them to be impartial.

https://xcancel.com/AllSidesNow

Again, which one of these tweets highlights their bias? Most of them are event headlines from a “left”, a “center”, and “right” source.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#45

Post by Octoth0rpe »

armchairhacker wrote: post #27
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe this has to do with the leftward trend of the mainstream press. What mainstream press outlet has moved leftwards? I can't think of any, and I certainly am interested in knowing which those might be. Inversely, cbs, the ny times, and the washington post have all shifted rather noticeably rightward in the last 10 years.

According to AllSides, many outlets moved left, although some did move right: https://www.allsides.com/blog/AllSides-Media-Bias-Rating-Ove... It and https://mediabiasfactcheck.com say NYTimes “leans left” and is “left-center” respectively. What’s an example that you believe highlights NYTimes moving rightward?

> What’s an example that you believe highlights NYTimes moving rightward?

The treatment of Mamdani for one, or Hochul/Cuomo.

>say NYTimes “leans left” and is “left-center” respectively.

That can be true and at the same time it can be moving rightward.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#46

Post by Retric »

rurp wrote: post #38
ninth_ant wrote: post #31

> I did too much bragging in the media and didn’t anticipate the extent to which public opinion toward FiveThirtyEight would shift once we became a corporate-backed incumbent rather than an eccentric upstart Can’t speak for everyone else, but it wasn’t this for me. It was about 2016 presidential that lost me. He tries to justify this later about how theirs was better than other outlets but I don’t care. Call it emoti…

I had complaints about 538, especially the early days, but don't understand this critique at all. A 30% chance hitting is completely unremarkable, and it was a perfectly reasonable reading of the evidence at the time. Nate isn't wrong that conventional wisdom was way off, with even supposedly statistical models giving Hillary a 99% chance of winning. Elections, like many things, have some inherent uncertainty. A seve…

Not just that, predictions also impact voter participation.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#47

Post by tekla »

ninth_ant wrote: post #31

> I did too much bragging in the media and didn’t anticipate the extent to which public opinion toward FiveThirtyEight would shift once we became a corporate-backed incumbent rather than an eccentric upstart Can’t speak for everyone else, but it wasn’t this for me. It was about 2016 presidential that lost me. He tries to justify this later about how theirs was better than other outlets but I don’t care. Call it emoti…

> Call it emotional, naive, unfair or whatever you want

Yep definitely all those.

Why is it so hard to admit 30% is not 0%?

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#48

Post by wredcoll »

armchairhacker wrote: post #27
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe this has to do with the leftward trend of the mainstream press. What mainstream press outlet has moved leftwards? I can't think of any, and I certainly am interested in knowing which those might be. Inversely, cbs, the ny times, and the washington post have all shifted rather noticeably rightward in the last 10 years.

According to AllSides, many outlets moved left, although some did move right: https://www.allsides.com/blog/AllSides-Media-Bias-Rating-Ove... It and https://mediabiasfactcheck.com say NYTimes “leans left” and is “left-center” respectively. What’s an example that you believe highlights NYTimes moving rightward?

NYTimes constantly deletes parts of Trump's comments or outright rephrases them in an attempt to make him seem smarter, or at least, less insane. They rarely to never do that for other people.

Re: Disney erased FiveThirtyEight

#50

Post by wredcoll »

CGMthrowaway wrote: post #15
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe this has to do with the leftward trend of the mainstream press. What mainstream press outlet has moved leftwards? I can't think of any, and I certainly am interested in knowing which those might be. Inversely, cbs, the ny times, and the washington post have all shifted rather noticeably rightward in the last 10 years.

>cbs, the ny times, and the washington post have all shifted rather noticeably rightward As the Overton window or activist left moves further left on issues like identity politics, crime and free speech (1619 Project era at NYT, staff revolts etc), steady coverage can appear "righter" by comparison without actually changing

Wait, so your argument is that people being against censorship or discrimination are now considered to be left wing? That's literally the overton window moving to the right, you're contradicting yourself!
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