Anthropic Is Preparing for IPO and We Should Be Worried

Post by dgellow » Tue, May 19, 2026, 2:20 PM UTC

HWR_14 wrote: post #27

miroljub wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that an issue? Many funds that replicate an index are not doing full replication anyway. They do some kind of sampling that includes way fewer stocks than defined in the index. What would stop a fund from just not including those stocks because of sampling? Or waiting for time to settle, since even with full physical replication, they are not required to jump in and buy immediately after IPO.

Index funds make legal commitments to replicate the entire index. I have no idea why you think they use sampling. The whole point of an index fund is I'm not paying someone to try to guess what stocks are going to under/over perform the S&P. And when they are required to buy is not really a mystery either. they have very little discretion.

Post by dgellow » Tue, May 19, 2026, 2:21 PM UTC

re-thc wrote: post #22

twalla wrote: post #19

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There is indirect exposure to Anthropic/OpenAI through all the incestuous partnerships between hyperscalers and NVDA

Exactly. Google has SpaceX stock. To make matters worse all the banks, insurers and investment firms in that S&P list are likely in there somewhere too. I'm sure I'm missing a whole lot more.

Post by [deleted] » Tue, May 19, 2026, 2:24 PM UTC

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #26

vincent_s wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX all want to IPO within this year. There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares. So people might sell their shares in other companies to buy in at the IPO, then when the next one goes public they might sell the shares they just bought to jump onto the next one and so on. I don't think that there was a situation like this ever before.

> There's just not enough money in the market to buy all those shares What are you basing this on?

Post by twiceaday » Tue, May 19, 2026, 2:27 PM UTC

the__alchemist wrote: post #33

cmiles8 wrote: post #3

It’s going to be an interesting period ahead. The market is going to struggle to absorb SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others. They’re just massive relative to typical IPOs. Maybe one can sneak through but not all. Someone is going to have to have a very bad day and it’s not clear who yet. Separately there’s a big battle to keep these folks out of the S&P index, because many funds (some of whom are required to buy ind…

Regarding S&P: That is my acute concern. For individual investors, they can be removed by taking an a short position corresponding to the stock's index weight. (I do this for TSLA). More broadly, it exposes people who only use index funds or don't have shorting in their tool box (passive investors for example) to big risk.

Post by 999900000999 » Tue, May 19, 2026, 2:28 PM UTC

CharlieDigital wrote: post #42

999900000999 wrote: post #38

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On device is still meh. Realistically Apple needs to put a few teams on it, and have built in support for running LLMs on OSX. I assume if you integrate this on an OS level you might be able to pull off some additional tricks. So far most of the tools for running LLMs locally have been driven by volunteers or very small startups. Microsoft could also do this, but they're too busy trying to upsell everyone. Microsoft…

Apple has the edge here since they fully control the hardware and can baseline their implementation. It feels like Microsoft's task is much harder because there's a much broader range of hardware and capabilities that they need to support.