We don't know why Malawi is poor • Hacker News Board

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#41

Post by alephnerd » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:49 PM UTC

xandrius wrote: post #16

I think just you can get a glimpse by what they export (from Wikipedia): - Malawi: tobacco (55%), dried legumes (8.8%), sugar (6.7%), tea (5.7%), cotton (2%), peanuts, coffee, soy (2015 est.) - Rwanda: Gold, tin ores, coffee, malt extract, rare earth ores I can easily see why one has a higher GDP than the other. Very little mistery to me.

Also, foreign aid. Rwanda received massive amounts of foreign aid unlike Malawi [0] and de facto colonized the DRC's mine fields [1]

[0] - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS?locat...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rwanda-exercises-comman...

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#42

Post by forinti » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:51 PM UTC

ascorbic wrote: post #35

forinti wrote: post #24

The Central African Republic, which has a low population density, lots of water and arable land is also very poor. As is South Sudan. It must be very hard to trade your way out of poverty if you are landlocked in a poor continent. All the countries in Europe are well off by world standards because there's an enormous market next-door.

The question isn't "why is Malawi poor compared to European countries", it's "why is Malawi poor compared to other countries in a similar – or worse – situation"

Look at the map in the article. It's a lot lighter in the middle than around the coastline. Niger, Chad, Burundi, South Sudan, CAR. These are all very poor. Malawi is not really an exception.

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#43

Post by londons_explore » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:52 PM UTC

alephnerd wrote: post #41

xandrius wrote: post #16

I think just you can get a glimpse by what they export (from Wikipedia): - Malawi: tobacco (55%), dried legumes (8.8%), sugar (6.7%), tea (5.7%), cotton (2%), peanuts, coffee, soy (2015 est.) - Rwanda: Gold, tin ores, coffee, malt extract, rare earth ores I can easily see why one has a higher GDP than the other. Very little mistery to me.

Also, foreign aid. Rwanda received massive amounts of foreign aid unlike Malawi [0] and de facto colonized the DRC's mine fields [1] [0] - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS?locat... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/rwanda-exercises-comman...

Foreign aid is rarely a gift - in almost all cases it is a business transaction. It is given as a loan, or in return for some mineral rights, or for an important UN vote, or for allegiance in a war.

For the loan cases, the terms are often unaffordable, effectively handing effective control of the entire country to the entity who has the other end of the loan - it is the modern empire-by-debt.

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#44

Post by sofixa » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:53 PM UTC

xandrius wrote: post #16

I think just you can get a glimpse by what they export (from Wikipedia): - Malawi: tobacco (55%), dried legumes (8.8%), sugar (6.7%), tea (5.7%), cotton (2%), peanuts, coffee, soy (2015 est.) - Rwanda: Gold, tin ores, coffee, malt extract, rare earth ores I can easily see why one has a higher GDP than the other. Very little mistery to me.

There are a few things to note here.

For both, around half of GDP is in the services sector. It doesn't matter that much what raw resources they export when it's a smaller portion of GDP (23% in Rwanda, 15% in Malawi). Also, almost all of those raw resources that Rwanda exports are stolen from the DRC by Rwanda-backed militias.

Foreign aid, and Rwanda's ability to position itself geopolitically as a trusted stable partner (which enables more aid and for it to get away with theft and murder) have more impact than maize vs gold.

And in the end, there are plenty of countries that have successfully developed and become less or not poor without having anything of serious value to export. From Bangladesh to the Balkans (I mean post-decolonisation Balkans, not post-Iron Curtain - it was mostly an area with subsistence farming as the main employment, disease, low rates of literacy and very low for higher education, frequent conflict and ethnic/religious tensions, few natural resources other than grain and some very limited amounts coal/minerals). If anything, it usually is the opposite, cf. the resource curse.

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#45

Post by boelboel » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:54 PM UTC

xandrius wrote: post #16

I think just you can get a glimpse by what they export (from Wikipedia): - Malawi: tobacco (55%), dried legumes (8.8%), sugar (6.7%), tea (5.7%), cotton (2%), peanuts, coffee, soy (2015 est.) - Rwanda: Gold, tin ores, coffee, malt extract, rare earth ores I can easily see why one has a higher GDP than the other. Very little mistery to me.

There's barely any mines in Rwanda btw. DRC is closer to the later in terms of exports and I wouldn't say it's doing better.

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#46

Post by rdtsc » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:54 PM UTC

> It ranks 107th out of 180 on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, which is middling, but not especially bad, roughly comparable to Indonesia and Brazil.

I would still guess corruption is a major reason. Sometimes the way it’s measured and how it’s reported is not accurate. People internalize corrupt practices as normal and stop viewing it as corruption. A bribe is a gift, a nepotistic appointment is “taking care of one’s family”.

It also doesn’t always make sense to compare only corruption with other countries. Some may be more corrupt but they have enough positive factors that they develop better despite the corruption.

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#47

Post by yorwba » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:54 PM UTC

pavlov wrote: post #15

The conclusion of the article is interesting: > 'The unit of analysis for "why is X poor" may be the political coalition, not the country.' So maybe the real question here is not about the absolute poverty, but the derivative: "Why hasn't Malawi seen meaningful growth for 30 years?" — And the answer could be surprisingly related to first-world countries like Finland that also have experienced decades of stunted growt…

Finnish GDP per capita is growing much, much faster than Malawi's: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locat...

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#48

Post by therein » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:54 PM UTC

ViktorRay wrote: post #40

peterfirefly wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like: Rwanda has a competent dictator (and has had the same one for 26 years, more if you consider the years where he was the strongman behind the President). A competent dictator is better than an incompetent dictator -- or even, in many ways, an incompetent democracy.

Is Malawi an incompetent democracy? Based on the article it seems to have a functioning stable democracy. Are you implying that a dictator would lead to Malawi becoming wealthy? Seems like a disturbing argument. If that’s not what you are implying then what are you implying?

Are you implying that a "functioning" democracy automatically leads to good decisions being made and crowd always has good wisdom regardless of the attributes of the crowd?

To lead a country to prosperity is as simple as letting a nation vote and counting their votes and then giving power to the guy they voted for?

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#49

Post by Joker_vD » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:56 PM UTC

vondur wrote: post #32

Malawi needs to drop tobacco as their main export. Tobacco is hard on the soil and requires more fertilizer and acidifies the soil. Swapping out tobacco for something like a specialty coffee would be far better (and Rwanda has done that) Bringing some hard specie with Coffee would really help and the foreign aid could help them make the transition, which would take a few years to get going.

> Malawi needs to drop tobacco as their main export

That's the product they have most comparative advantage in producing. You're literally suggesting they should cut their income down, and try to get better at something else.

Re: We don't know why Malawi is poor

#50

Post by amoorthy » Fri, May 15, 2026, 5:58 PM UTC

rwyinuse wrote: post #11

Perhaps there are cultural reasons that explain this, such as attitudes towards work, entrepreneurship, private ownership etc? I have no idea if Rwanda and Malawi have difference there, but globally one can see clearly see the impact of culture. Just look at how well Japan did despite losing WW2 and having little natural resources, or how badly Russia has done despite its huge landmass and resources, because the poli…

Immigrants to any country are a unique slice of the population because they chose to migrate for a better life. Hence immigrants in most countries tend to do well economically (sometimes after a generation). Uncertain that cultural differences are the reason for different economic outcomes you observe.