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Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

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Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#41

Post by solumos »

xg15 wrote: post #34

I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.

Polymarket is simply an exchange for these sorts of “contracts” and the results are verified by a separate entity (it’s a DAO, which of course can be manipulated, and was the subject of controversy due to some Venezuela invasion-related “market” resolutions)

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#42

Post by mint5 »

xg15 wrote: post #34

I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.

No no no, the outcome revealed new information as the market intends! That info is that people had discounted the rare weather event “a 10% chance of localized hairdryers” on the day in question. The bettor predicted this better than everyone else, making their info public by placing a bet!!! /s

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#44

Post by gizajob »

saghm wrote: post #35
alansaber wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We rename everything to make it cooler to sell. Probably been a thing since the times of the sea people.

Even the term "sea people" sounds cooler than "those dudes who live over there by the water"

Preferable to “the beaker folk of the Bronze Age”

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#46

Post by Tade0 »

chucksta wrote: post #25
testing22321 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sooner or later someone will rig the coin

Potential for fraudulent activity makes something a scam? That list is gonna be long

"Gaming"[0] companies are audited for the expected value each coin toss/slot machine roll etc. has - typically it's a high and unusually precise percentage, like e.g. 95.1681%.

The scam in is advertising, that emphasizes how much you can potentially win, even though obviously on average the house takes those few percent each time.

[0] A term they like to use to describe themselves.

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#47

Post by greatgib »

Just to be clear, my understanding of news here is France is that there is an investigation for someone having possibly rigged the weather sensor but there was nothing release about how this could have been done.

The hair dryer thing is a joke, even if it is still a possibility, but just to say, it could be a cover, it could be a hot air gun, it could be a hack, it could be just luck, ...

Take care because there are ai generated videos of a guy with a hair dryer doing that, but these are fake!

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#48

Post by LeifCarrotson »

boringg wrote: post #4

Is there a bet available to determine if the weather forecasted was impacted by a hair dryer?

That's effectively what all the 99% or 1% prediction markets are: a bet that an asteroid will destroy the planet or that the Rapture will occur or that we'll all upload our consciousnesses into computronium or whatever is not actually a bet that those events will happen (and that the site and enough of the economy will survive to allow you to collect and spend your winnings), it's a bet that the market will resolve incorrectly.

Re: Someone allegedly used a hairdryer to rig Polymarket weather bets

#50

Post by arealaccount »

xg15 wrote: post #34

I think what's also telling is Polymarket's non-reaction to this. If there are obvious concerns that the outcome was manipulated, I'd expect them to invalidate the bet - otherwise they're effectively incentivising manipulation.

If anything this was great free advertising for their platform
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