"Prediction market" sounds much better than online gambling.
U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
41–50 of 116 posts
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why stop at prediction markets? Trading in markets is heavily tied to information or information processing advantage so probably all assets should be held by the government to avoid conflicts of interest involving self interests.
Reducto ad absurdum doesn't work here. You have to show that there's a desire and a rationale for going from limiting betting markets like Kalshi and limiting "investment" markets, which you haven't done. What you have left is a salty quip. There's an obvious opportunity to use insider information or insider influence to create a particular outcome on Kalshi. Like I could trade on the likelihood of a power outage in…
You are apparently very happy with a market that is defined by an economist who views it as you view the prediction* market.
Prediction markets are useful in their own right because they help people plan with information independent of themselves and more accurate and less biased than other sources. That is very similar to a market allocating a societies future allocations through rewarding holding of past investments. Both actually have many of the same problems and elimination of either can not prevent insider trading on information or significant resources being wasted on zero sum game aspects or faults in how such simple systems of reward function layers allocate as well.
(If you plan to propose to a partner in September might it not be helpful to have an opinion about the night of the 28th? Is that more or less important than the OTC penny stock for a probably defunct mine that possibly has copper? But why not pick equivalent strong points. If you are planning purchase like a next auto might you find future energy market related bets helpful to estimating long term risks for your choice?)
*typo
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#43ANY government employee or government contract worker should be banned from trading on prediction markets.
Every large company should ban employees and contractors from trading on prediction markets. There are so many ways an employee could make money on prediction markets. Causing outages is probably the easiest, but anything that would get the company in the news would do it.
I find this argument entirely unconvincing.
AWS’s massive outage lead to a significant jump in the stock price.
No single grunt level employee has the power to affect any large company’s share price.
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#44We've learned that these tools are only as effective as the tools of enforcement. A valid technique now available to us is to ban some activity that has valuable returns, then participate in it nonetheless, and simply not enforce action except against those of an opposing tribe. Presumably, violations of this ban simply lead to a hearing before an ethics committee staffed to lean towards the appropriate direction?
Still, it is something. Some chilling effect is better than none. While we do this, it is worthwhile to make prediction markets accessible to our opponents. Ideally, those in corrupt countries aligned against us should be leaking as much information through the markets to us and we should enrich them for it. I'd love to have this kind of distributed espionage with the largest number of bets being on the actions of those aligned against us.
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#45So they can vote themselves out to do the right thing, and they purposefully allowing themselves to invest in the stock market with insider information. My cynicism tells me they are throwing this bone to divert attention from the stock market loophole
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#46Good. Now they should also ban themselves from insider trading in both the public stock market and private markets as well as prediction markets.
They should do this, but only because senators and congresspeople are terrible at trading stocks and they generally average below SPY.
There’s like 2 famous exceptions, other than those they are simply abysmal traders because their information isn’t worth very much. This problem is so overstated, it’s popular because it’s vaguely populist and exhibits an anti elite sentiment
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#47I just can't understand how this prevents, say, the son
-in-law of the president (totally unelected) going to negotiate for peace in Iran, while his brother in law is on the board of Polymarket and a strategic advisor to Kalshi.
This is going to ruin interesting conversations at their holiday dinners!
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#48How can you even trace it if they’re using crypto?
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#49So they can vote themselves out to do the right thing, and they purposefully allowing themselves to invest in the stock market with insider information. My cynicism tells me they are throwing this bone to divert attention from the stock market loophole
i'm not sure it's productive to think this way. senators could be making more money on prediction markets. they took a nice step which will lead them to make no money on prediction markets (less money overall). it also sets a precedent which could easily be applied to the stock market.
what you're saying is probably on the mind of at least one Senator, but all things considered, this feels like a net-positive move which they didn't have to do.
Re: U.S. Senators Vote to Ban Themselves from Trading on Prediction Markets
#50So they can vote themselves out to do the right thing, and they purposefully allowing themselves to invest in the stock market with insider information. My cynicism tells me they are throwing this bone to divert attention from the stock market loophole
I get what you're saying but they did also vote themselves a restriction on stock trading in 2012, so the same behavior as this? If prediction markets get really profitable you might expect the same loophole there too.