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Will you heed my warnings now?

scottaaronson.blog

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Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#41

Post by tgv »

sanxiyn wrote: post #19
Ardren wrote: post #16

> Shor of Damocles What is the biggest number factored using Shor's algorithm? Last time I looked it was very unimpressive. Edit: It's gotten worse. 21 from 2012. "Replication of Quantum Factorisation Records with an 8-bit Home Computer, an Abacus, and a Dog" say the factorization of 35 in 2019 actually failed. https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237

I will let Scott Aaronson speak. (See https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9668 ) > Sometimes these days, I'll survey the spectacular recent progress in fault-tolerance, 2-qubit gate fidelities, programmable hundred-qubit systems, etc., only to be answered with a sneer: "What's the biggest number that Shor's algorithm has factored? Still 15 after all these years? Haha, apparently the emperor has no clothes!" I've commented…

> dismissing the Manhattan Project as hopelessly stalled in 1944

Then again, there are enough examples of failed projects. Why should this be comparable to the Manhattan project? In 1944, it was only two years underway, whereas Shor's algorithm is over 30. Tons of articles have been published on quantum computing, while the A bomb was kept as secret as possible, making learning from other countries, sometimes even from colleagues, impossible. In 1942, an atomic explosion was still hypothetical, whereas quantum computing had its first commercial service 7 years ago. Etc.

So, while in principle lack of progress doesn't guarantee failure, a comparison to the Manhattan Project is stylistic bullshit.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#42

Post by deepsun »

red75prime wrote: post #31
toxik wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I talked to a guy who did his doctoral degree on quantum computing and he was not worried at all. In fact he thought it was wildly overhyped, and like cold fusion, self driving cars, or string theory, always just around the corner. Just give us five more years and another grant, please.

Meanwhile Waymo has 200 million autonomous miles under its belt.

Waymo had millions in 2015.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#43

Post by red75prime »

deepsun wrote: post #42
red75prime wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile Waymo has 200 million autonomous miles under its belt.

Waymo had millions in 2015.

Waymo doesn't seem to know it.

https://waymo.com/research/safety-performance-of-the-waymo-r...

> Waymo’s rider-only ride-hailing operations reached its first one million rider-only miles on January 21, 2023

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#44

Post by AndrewStephens »

red75prime wrote: post #34
emil-lp wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But Duke Nukem was developed with visible progress. We are still not factoring 21, let alone 35, let alone numbers with thousands of digits.

Quantum correction algorithms (that would allow factoring of thousands of digits) begin to work when the gate fidelity and other parameters are above certain threshold.

> gate fidelity and other parameters are above certain threshold

A threshold that might be beyond what the physical properties of our universe allow. It is still unclear.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#45

Post by sanxiyn »

tgv wrote: post #41
sanxiyn wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I will let Scott Aaronson speak. (See https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9668 ) > Sometimes these days, I'll survey the spectacular recent progress in fault-tolerance, 2-qubit gate fidelities, programmable hundred-qubit systems, etc., only to be answered with a sneer: "What's the biggest number that Shor's algorithm has factored? Still 15 after all these years? Haha, apparently the emperor has no clothes!" I've commented…

> dismissing the Manhattan Project as hopelessly stalled in 1944 Then again, there are enough examples of failed projects. Why should this be comparable to the Manhattan project? In 1944, it was only two years underway, whereas Shor's algorithm is over 30. Tons of articles have been published on quantum computing, while the A bomb was kept as secret as possible, making learning from other countries, sometimes even fr…

The main point is that just as you can't ask for tiny nuclear explosion because nuclear physics just doesn't work that way, you also can't ask for factoring of 21 with Shor's algorithm. Quantum computing just doesn't work that way, sorry.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#46

Post by brador »

Sounding the alarm while presenting no data or science, as a member of the National academy of sciences, is doing a disservice to the position, to science, to the self.

Show the data, the charts, let people decide for themselves.

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#47

Post by vidarh »

red75prime wrote: post #43
deepsun wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Waymo had millions in 2015.

Waymo doesn't seem to know it. https://waymo.com/research/safety-performance-of-the-waymo-r... > Waymo’s rider-only ride-hailing operations reached its first one million rider-only miles on January 21, 2023

The key distinction being "rider-only".

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#48

Post by Tyyps »

beloch wrote: post #32
KaiserPro wrote: post #2

Ok, maybe I'm missing something here. So we know that quantum computers hold a real risk of being able to break a lot of encryption. We also know that changing cyphers is hard (because reasons) But what I don't see is what I can practically do now, as either someone who is a CTO/Big Cheese™ or a lowly engineer?

The most important thing to realize about cryptography is that, for most methods short of a Vernam cipher or quantum key distribution, coded messages need to be treated as published with delay . Cipher text can be archived today and attacked years from now with currently undeveloped, unknown, or unpredicted resources/algorithms. Sure, perhaps nobody archived the cipher text and you're fine. You don't know that for su…

About QKD: https://arxiv.org/abs/1803.04520

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#49

Post by jrflowers »

watwut wrote: post #24
sharkjacobs wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying this because it's an evergreen joke or because you really think there hasn't been meaningful progress in the field since 1996? Duke Nukem Forever was release fifteen years ago. Some things never happen until they suddenly do. The wolf really does eat the boy at the end of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.

The Boy Who Cried Wolf is a story about a boy who have seen a wolf, successfully threatened the wolf away by causing a commotion in a disbelieving village. One day the disbelieving village refused to show up, boy was eaten and thus proven correct. But as it happens in real life politics too, people who were just proven they were wrong continued to blame the boy. The story is told from the point of view of a villagers…

> The Boy Who Cried Wolf is a story about a boy who have seen a wolf, successfully threatened the wolf away by causing a commotion in a disbelieving village

What happened before that in the story

Re: Will you heed my warnings now?

#50

Post by red75prime »

AndrewStephens wrote: post #44
red75prime wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quantum correction algorithms (that would allow factoring of thousands of digits) begin to work when the gate fidelity and other parameters are above certain threshold.

> gate fidelity and other parameters are above certain threshold A threshold that might be beyond what the physical properties of our universe allow. It is still unclear.

This possibility means discovery of new physics that has no indications of existence yet.
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