They represent 4.5% of oil production it seems. It will be interesting to see what this means longterm.
4.5% most likely capped to meet OPEC agreements. There's no ceiling now (although, it will obviously not be 100% or even close).
UAE to leave OPEC
41–50 of 750 posts
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#42Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…
Someone's going to have to provide me with an explainer of how many different proxy forces are involved in Yemen. I can barely keep up with Lebanon and have forgotten Syria.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#43Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…
> Egypt
Already aligned with the KSA [0]
> India
Already aligned with the UAE [1]
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IMO the Pakistan aspect is overstated. This is a reversion to the norm of KSA-Pakistan relations before Imran Khan completely destroyed it by fully aligning behind Qatar and Turkiye when both were competing against KSA.
[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/5/egypt-says-it-shares...
[1] - https://thediplomat.com/2026/01/india-uae-embark-on-a-strate...
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
Hormuz will be a problem for a long time. No one needs insider info to know that. The clowns in charge of our side of the war have made zero progress toward a resolution, and I don't know what will change. My fear is that this will continue for months and then the desperate US will start bombing cities.
I think you underestimate the impact of a blockade on Iran's ports... Iran (and China) can maintain this posture for ballpark a month or so more before economic mayhem leads to another popular uprising. Time is in the US's hands up until the midterms and even then until January
I think you underestimate how little economic pressure matters when people are up against an invader who attacked amidst negotiations for bogus reasons, threatened total annihilation, and killed thousands, including a school full of children.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think they just want to pump as much as they possibly can to cash out now while they can. The writing is on the wall for fossil fuels. Even _they_ are doubling down on solar power and switching away from fossil fuel. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_the_United_Arab...
Earth is going to run out of oil in 50 years at current rates. One way or another, the status quo is going to change.
No it isn't!
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#46Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.
The goal is a full regional war orchestrated by Israel. That's what is playing out here.
Slowly weakening remaining Arab states and setting them up to fight each other.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?
It also looks fairly easy to mine/blockade outside of their territorial waters. You don’t need that many drones to make the whole area unusable for marine transport. The strait is the clearest choke point but I don’t know how much bypassing it would help UAE
You don't even need to hit that many ships either.
Despite there being way less than 1 successful attack per week [1] travel through the Red Sea is down from ~500/week to ~200/week [2].
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_attacks_on_commercial_v...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis#Houthi_attacks_...
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#48My guess is that is this because UAE has ports on the other side of Hormuz and doesn't want to be restricted in their usage by OPEC? Does this mean UAE thinks Hormuz will be a problem for a long time? And what does it mean for oil prices long term?
Do they? I just looked at a map and I see very little oil infrastructure on that side of Hormuz plus isn't Oman Iran aligned?
Fujairah, on the other side of Hormuz is the fourth largest bunkering hub in the world. That’s not “little oil infrastructure”
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#49This is how peak oil happens. Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, nuclear. These are more than ripe to disrupt energy into the 21st century.
> Without a healty cartel, oil is doomed
Why/how?
Without a healthy cartel, wouldn't prices go down? Cheaper oil means less adoption of alternate energy sources.
Re: UAE to leave OPEC
#50Is there an explainer on this? I'm not familiar with the geopolitics or oil cartels well enough to understand the implications here.
OPEC is a cartel of Arab oil-producing countries, including UAE. They limit production in order to keep the world oil price artificially high. UAE is pulling out of the cartel, presumably so it can bypass the restrictions and cash in on the high prices caused by the Iranian conflict. AFAIK this is the first time a country has pulled out of OPEC, and hopefully, it will lead to its demise.