Rule of thumb: when something is being called "The World's Most Complex Machine", its either CERN's Large Hadron Collider or an ASML EUV machine.
In this case, its the latter.
ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
41–50 of 251 posts
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#42Earlier quoted context omitted.
i find it hard to believe that there is no equivalent anywhere else in the world. there is so much talent out there and the stakes are so high that it seems like an inevitability. whatever many secrets are involved, information wants to be free and it's hard to believe that others won't figure it out. by the time they do catch up we better be steps ahead. what's after EUV?
High-NA EUV, apparently. https://www.reuters.com/business/asml-says-next-gen-euv-tool... : - ASML's High-NA EUV machines ready for high-volume production - Machines have processed 500,000 wafers, showing technical readiness - Full integration into manufacturing expected in 2-3 years, ASML's CTO says After that, it may be X-rays. A disruptive step would be to move to 3D printing, but that (among other issues) is too s…
> A disruptive step would be to move to 3D printing
The lithography equivalents of that are laser direct write lithography and e-beam lithography. They've been used for decades in research labs, but they're impossibly slow for any mass production.
Atomic Semi are trying to make some derivative of these processes happen at a commercial scale.
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
It has never happened in the history of the world that a company or country could maintain its technological advance indefinitely. Either China will catch up on this or that particular technology will become obsolete. But it is certain that they won't stay behind forever (measured in a small number of decades at most).
Right but if you dont say how long it will take them, youre not really saying anything.
> measured in a small number of decades at most
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because very large share of market now are datacenters. Difference from desktop is dramatic - for desktop really acceptable very simple chips with bad energy efficiency, but DCs already deal with extremely high power consumption, as they typically "compress" so much consumption in one rack, that constantly working near to physical constraints.
You can't make desktop computer 4 times larger but there's very little preventing you form putting 4 racks where you had 1 before. If the floor space is the expensive part of data center then probably some incentives are misaligned.
For about price of land and connectivity - in large city land price begin on few millions dollars per square kilometer, and usage of cable channels could cost from 50$ per meter (easy could be 200$/m).
Plus, space arrange could last years.
Heat dissipation in range of megawatts could be just prohibited by local regulations.
So, space in large cities is very serious problem, and for business it is usually easier to "compress" as much computing power as possible in one rack.
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#45For anyone interested in the topic I highly recommend this Veritasium video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUHjLxm3V0
I recommend the Asianometry channel, he has a good series of videos about ASML, TSMC, chip fab supply chain, the Japan photo resist monopoly, etc
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#46For anyone interested in the topic I highly recommend this Veritasium video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiUHjLxm3V0
I recommend the Asianometry channel, he has a good series of videos about ASML, TSMC, chip fab supply chain, the Japan photo resist monopoly, etc https://m.youtube.com/c/Asianometry/videos?ra=m
Asianometry is fantastic
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because very large share of market now are datacenters. Difference from desktop is dramatic - for desktop really acceptable very simple chips with bad energy efficiency, but DCs already deal with extremely high power consumption, as they typically "compress" so much consumption in one rack, that constantly working near to physical constraints.
That's the AI hype narrative, but aren't server CPUs only like 25% of the total market? That's tiny compared to consumer volume, though revenue is likely on par given the higher cost per unit.
> aren't server CPUs only like 25% of the total market?
Yes and no. If just formally calculate, yes, servers are small market volumes. But, they are much less constrained financially, than private person, so from same fab one could earn much more money if sell to server market, than if sell to consumer market.
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#48> To ship one requires 40 freight containers, three cargo planes, and 20 trucks.
Is this just restating the size of the same shipment three times?
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's the AI hype narrative, but aren't server CPUs only like 25% of the total market? That's tiny compared to consumer volume, though revenue is likely on par given the higher cost per unit.
> aren't server CPUs only like 25% of the total market? Yes and no. If just formally calculate, yes, servers are small market volumes. But, they are much less constrained financially, than private person, so from same fab one could earn much more money if sell to server market, than if sell to consumer market.
I don't think that's correct, server chips aren't really "more expensive" than consumer chips when you correctly account for performance. Older-gen server chips have comparable performance to new top-of-the-line consumer chips and sell for a similar price. Newer-gen server chips in turn are priced at a premium over the current value of the older-gen, to account for their higher performance. The lower financial constraints don't enter into it all that much.
Re: ASML became the chokepoint for cutting-edge chips
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
Non-zero chances - yes. Unavoidable - I wouldn't be so sure. I can't imagine how many top human-hours and cutting-edge inventions involved to construct this machine. And much of this simply cannot be stolen or bought, no matter how much money you have.
It has never happened in the history of the world that a company or country could maintain its technological advance indefinitely. Either China will catch up on this or that particular technology will become obsolete. But it is certain that they won't stay behind forever (measured in a small number of decades at most).
I mean you’ve definitely just had technology disappear though, usually because of war. Damascus Steel was a lost military tech. We could certainly end up just accidentally (or worse, intentionally) bomb this stuff out of existence so nobody has it.