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The AI Layoff Trap

arxiv.org

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Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#41

Post by ithkuil »

xyzal wrote: post #13

I use AIs for coding with moderate success, but the more I work with them, the more I am convinced that "intelligence on tap" is a pipe dream, especially in domains where logical thinking in novel (ie not-in-dataset) contexts is required. Recently, I tasked it to study a new Czech building permit law in conjunction with some waste disposal regulations and the result was just tragic. The model (opus 4.6) just could no…

I wonder what percentage of the job space truly depends on the current edge we have over machines.

I think it's reasonable to worry that way before machines are more reliable than the average human (let alone more reliable than a highly trained human) they can pose a significant disruption to the job market which will send shockwaves throughout society

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#42

Post by tonyedgecombe »

bananaflag wrote: post #34
bwhiting2356 wrote: post #28

If robotics progress starts to pick up, I'll take this more seriously. Right now, there's practically infinite demand for labor in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and many other industries. All kinds us good projects that could be happening, if you dig into why, labor intensive work is a factor. Why didn't the hydroponics project take off? Why is that still an empty lot instead of a new home? Why isn't there…

Yeah I am always disappointed in how little there is automated in construction and how slow humans are in this activity. It feels like an exclave of the Dark Ages in the Information Age.

Construction is interesting because productivity has actually fallen in recent decades.

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#43

Post by jay_kyburz »

semiinfinitely wrote: post #8

neo-luddism dressed up in economic jargon. the authors suggest the only effective tool is to tax companies based on how much automation they achieve. Penalizing efficiency is a guaranteed recipe for stagnation and if we'd done this at any point in our past we would have not made it out of the dark ages

I agree, and I often wonder why companies pay any tax at all, rather than just hitting the shareholders as their wealth grows. There was a post a few months ago about taxing unrealized gains that was very interesting I thought.

The company itself has an impact on our society and needs to be "governed", so it seems reasonable for them to pay for that governance. Actually, it seems unfair that you can claim no profit and get out of paying for that governance.

I'd be really interested to know if companies pay the true cost of their impact to society, or if individual income tax has to pick up the tab.

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#44

Post by thierrydamiba »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #39
bwhiting2356 wrote: post #28

If robotics progress starts to pick up, I'll take this more seriously. Right now, there's practically infinite demand for labor in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and many other industries. All kinds us good projects that could be happening, if you dig into why, labor intensive work is a factor. Why didn't the hydroponics project take off? Why is that still an empty lot instead of a new home? Why isn't there…

Isn’t this more a function of how the American construction market is just really messed up somehow (corruption?)? In China, actual things get built fairly cheaply and quickly. You just don’t see workers hanging around watching one guy dig a hole like you do in the states. I would guess that automation is the only way out of the mess we are in, since just throwing more money and people at the problem just seems to ma…

What’s different about the market in China that enables this?

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#45

Post by debatem1 »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #28

If robotics progress starts to pick up, I'll take this more seriously. Right now, there's practically infinite demand for labor in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and many other industries. All kinds us good projects that could be happening, if you dig into why, labor intensive work is a factor. Why didn't the hydroponics project take off? Why is that still an empty lot instead of a new home? Why isn't there…

So you work in one of these fields, right? Hydroponics, homebuilding, theatre construction, pothole repair?

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#46

Post by enraged_camel »

bwhiting2356 wrote: post #28

If robotics progress starts to pick up, I'll take this more seriously. Right now, there's practically infinite demand for labor in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and many other industries. All kinds us good projects that could be happening, if you dig into why, labor intensive work is a factor. Why didn't the hydroponics project take off? Why is that still an empty lot instead of a new home? Why isn't there…

>> If robotics progress starts to pick up, I'll take this more seriously. Right now, there's practically infinite demand for labor in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and many other industries.

Don't be so sure: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/economy/blue-col...

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#47

Post by tonyedgecombe »

samrus wrote: post #25
drivebyhooting wrote: post #10

The trick is bypassing the human consumer as well. Companies satisfy (human) consumer needs as a byproduct of profit maximization. But human consumers are inefficient. They have to sleep, require medical care, etc. A purely machine economy would be far more efficient. Therefore in the limit we should eliminate reliance on human labor and consumption to build a more perfect and efficient world.

The humans consume to fulfill needs, how do those needs get fulfilled in a post human economy?

>The humans consume to fulfill needs

That's not how the capital class thinks of human consumption.

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#48

Post by teiferer »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #39
bwhiting2356 wrote: post #28

If robotics progress starts to pick up, I'll take this more seriously. Right now, there's practically infinite demand for labor in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and many other industries. All kinds us good projects that could be happening, if you dig into why, labor intensive work is a factor. Why didn't the hydroponics project take off? Why is that still an empty lot instead of a new home? Why isn't there…

Isn’t this more a function of how the American construction market is just really messed up somehow (corruption?)? In China, actual things get built fairly cheaply and quickly. You just don’t see workers hanging around watching one guy dig a hole like you do in the states. I would guess that automation is the only way out of the mess we are in, since just throwing more money and people at the problem just seems to ma…

Could you expand on the corruption claim?

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#49

Post by [deleted] »

ithkuil wrote: post #37
samrus wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The humans consume to fulfill needs, how do those needs get fulfilled in a post human economy?

Just train machines on the huge corpus of human needs so they can need things like no human has needed things before. What can possibly go wrong

[deleted]

Re: The AI Layoff Trap

#50

Post by thephyber »

paulpauper wrote: post #6

If AI displaces human workers faster than the economy can reabsorb them, it risks eroding the very consumer demand firms depend on. That is a huge "if" though. I am not sure either that the latter falls from this. When the US transitioned away from assembly lines or agriculture dominated, it's not as if consumer spending consequently collapsed.

When did the US transition away from agriculture?

When did the US transition away from assembly lines?

I don’t think you have thought through either one of these and I don’t think they are comparable to what we expect to see for AI’s changes to the job market.

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