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Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

finance.yahoo.com

41–50 of 68 posts

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?

What specific thing(s) are you worried that USD will take a dive relative to? Then once you have an answer to that question, that might point you towards what you want to be long.

Traders could start buying their oil using Yuan, for example. That’s not a theoretical anymore

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#42
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can go all cash so not risking leverage via shorts, etc. But a lot of folks think that's dumb. I feel better being in cash right now as the mental stress of big loses in middle age is not worth the missed gains if I'm wrong. To each their own.

You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?

I have a big chunk in FXE (like owning Euros) precisely for this reason.

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#43
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can go all cash so not risking leverage via shorts, etc. But a lot of folks think that's dumb. I feel better being in cash right now as the mental stress of big loses in middle age is not worth the missed gains if I'm wrong. To each their own.

You don’t think the US dollar will take a dive along with US stocks?

If your debts are also denominated in USD, their value will be fixed relative to your cash assets. This assumes a fixed rate, of course, but a 30 year fixed is common in the US and makes up a substantial portion of most folks’ debt.

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#44
post #21

Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they were only using Copilot. This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude! This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That…

It’s odd to me how much Microsoft over committed to Copilot. They added unwanted Copilot buttons to laptops. They renamed Office to Copilot. And in the end, it’s a terrible product anyways. They can only get away with this because of the control they have over OEMs, distribution channels, and the inability for consumers to opt out of all of thus.

Meanwhile startups can’t compete fairly because they don’t have the same channels to flood with their own branding.

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#45
post #21

Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they were only using Copilot. This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude! This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That…

“Copilot” is not one product, it’s around 15 different products, seriously. I think that people often compare apples to oranges by comparing the “copilot” they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc to Claude Code which is ridiculous. A better product to compare Claude Code to would be “Github Copilot CLI”, but I haven’t seen the two seriously compared anywhere.

That's on Microsoft for their choice of naming/branding.

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#46
post #21

Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they were only using Copilot. This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude! This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That…

“Copilot” is not one product, it’s around 15 different products, seriously. I think that people often compare apples to oranges by comparing the “copilot” they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc to Claude Code which is ridiculous. A better product to compare Claude Code to would be “Github Copilot CLI”, but I haven’t seen the two seriously compared anywhere.

In the context of knowledge workers, It is really about Claude Cowork against Microsoft Copilot suite for all their applications, which is what the OP is referencing ?

Github Copilot can use Claude APIs and has its own problems and challenges.

Microsoft AI performance is primarily not being affected by Github - while significant is much much smaller part of the enterprise revenue stream and their DAU compared to their Office suite apps.

Same for their PR exposure. It is lot more likely to here about Copilot in the office context than Github outside of small niche's like this forum.

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Copilot” is not one product, it’s around 15 different products, seriously. I think that people often compare apples to oranges by comparing the “copilot” they have in Windows/Office/Teams etc to Claude Code which is ridiculous. A better product to compare Claude Code to would be “Github Copilot CLI”, but I haven’t seen the two seriously compared anywhere.

That's on Microsoft for their choice of naming/branding.

Absolutely. They've made the same mess with "Copilot" as with ".NET" in the early 00's [0]. Everything was ".NET" from consumer oriented services (".NET Passport"), to "Visual Studio .NET" without anyone understanding what ".NET" was.

Now it's "Microsoft Copilot" which is different from "Microsoft 365 Copilot", which is different from "Copilot Chat" and from "GitHub Copilot", and the many other flavors.

It's a mess.

Still, their developer-focused offering seems to be "GitHub Copilot", which among other things includes "GitHub Copilot CLI" [1], their terminal-based agent. It's not bad.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_.NET_strategy

[1]: https://github.com/features/copilot/cli/

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#48
post #21

Copilot is the worst AI agent on the market. Over 50% of people I've spoken to that say AI is overhyped, when pressed, admit they were only using Copilot. This would be profitable if they could ship garbage for cheap, a la Microsoft Teams or Internet Explorer. But Copilot is worse at integrating with Office than Claude! This is because Copilot has aggressive context pruning to meet its price point of $20/month. That…

We have copilot at work integrated very deeply in our E5 landscape. It def sucks in Office, and I can break Copilot very easily when building small notebooks. It often crashes and the next page build in a notebook doesn’t come close to the previous iteration. That’s maddening.

But, the Teams integration for meeting summaries and in-meeting “what did Bob just say about the data center project?” prompts is magical and very useful. If you live in meetings or are trying not to. They need to put that team on rescue duty.

Re: Microsoft Set for Worst Quarter Since 2008

#49
post #40

Microsoft is one of the least likely large companies to benefit from an AI boom. They don’t have the capacity to support OpenAI and their own foundational models, they aren’t providing a compelling story for wrapping OpenAI, windows continues to suck… OpenAI signed an agreement with GCP , that should say a lot.

OpenAI also signed an agreement with AWS. And Anthropic has signed on with Microsoft as well as GCP. The underlying dynamic is that no single cloud provider has the capacity required to host all the demand, so the frontier AI labs have no choice but to diversify for their infrastructure needs.

can you elaborate on this? diversifying compute doesn't create more compute - is it that the different LLM vendors have different peak times and so spreading themselves over more compute vendors spreads peak load?
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