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White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

martynasm.com

41–50 of 109 posts

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#41
Managed decline policies of western governments are much more threatening to white-collar workers and everyone else than AI will ever be.

AI will enable significantly faster economic growth, which is something the EU has been making impossible with legislation designed to destroy Europe's economic advantage.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#42

Every morning the turkey rejoiced and said to himself "oh joy, I'm such a lucky turkey, I don't have to do anything, the food is plentiful, I just eat and shoot the breeze the whole day long, what an awesome life!" Until one morning, the day before thanksgiving, the turkey rejoiced about the awesome day he's about to have ... just to be picked up 5 minutes later and dragged to the slaughterhouse.

It’s a compelling story; but what you’re describing is, to the turkey, a black swan event, rather than an obvious inevitability that all the other turkeys keep telling the turkey is going to happen.

Years ago when you went into computers, you didn't have normies warning you that one day computers will program themselves? 20 years ago, nobody could tell you if this would happen in 20 years or 200 years, but I do believe there has been a general sense of this sort of thing happening eventually.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#43

To be perfectly honest, the majority of work is going to see a restructure soon anyway. "Triaging by LLM before sending task to any human" can work for almost anything, not just support calls. On another story I saw someone mention that they'd like something like an ad-blocker, but for content - a "content-blocker". Not too hard running even a local model that, via a browser extension, scnas the current page and plac…

Or it might mean they produce more valuable product and more of it and therefore need more devs to do it.

If a dev produces value for the company, and then the company can automate away the least valuable part of the dev's job, the dev is now more valuable. Why would tbe company get rid of them just at that moment?

Well, some will, because some companies are badly-run. Others will take advantage of the opportunity.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#44

I think the argument here is a bit of a strawman, though there is a good point in there as well. AI will not automate all customer support, but it has the potential to automate a large fraction of it. The anecdote in there is about complex B2B enterprise software. That's not the majority of customer support, and is very heavy on escalating to actual experts. You don't have to remove 100% of the jobs to have huge effe…

The article literally addresses this point. The easily automated stuff doesn’t save that much money. The big costs of support are the hard things you can’t automate.

For this specific business. I don't think that is true for every business or field.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#45

Let's suppose you are a medium sized business. You've always wanted to provide top quality customer service but couldn't do it before because you'd need to hire 5 people to do it right. Instead, you strategically decided to not provide quality customer service and sell the product at a lower price than competitors. So you have no customer service person in the company. Service is bad. It limits growth. But it was str…

"Top customer service" and AI do not mix. People hate an AI response more than a late, real response.

AI needn't respond, it can instead be used to sort the meaningless noise from the actionable complaints, where previously all would have been ignored. Raise only the issues that matter and can be addressed to the human.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#46
Of course it is, it’s just a scapegoat to lower the wages, another power dynamic trick pulled on employees. I have noticed a lot of managers going with coop+AI combo or outsourcing+AI, thinking it’s the ultimate goldmine to minimize expenses and maximize profits, and they soon hit a reality check. And when they do, unfortunately, instead of resolving the root cause issue, they go and hire only one senior in the team and overload and overwork him, while praising the AI how it increased the productivity and all.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#47

People tend to forget how fast technological development advances. Even if you lived trough it you tend to forget how recently the world looked very different. - before 2012 there was no smartphone - before 2001 there was no wikipedia - before 1995 less then 10 percent of the rich country home users had internet - before 2023 there was no ai available to home users. Hardware has been getting faster by a factor of 100…

Not quite, the Earth Simulator in 2003 had 35.86 Linpack TFLOPS, 10TB of RAM and 700TB of disk.

That's still almost three orders of magnitude from the iPhone 12 (0.02 Linpack TFLOPS, 4GB RAM, 256GB storage).

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#48
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You jest but this is precisely what we have done. Our customers have downright rejected SCRUM. It is considered a waste of money.

At a recent AI workshop management made clear that they see AI as rendering sprints and scrums obsolete, that Kanban makes a lot more sense, and that estimating effort/story-points is also becoming meaningless. Which is a strong silver lining if you ask me.

I want to understand how AI leads to this outcome.

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#49

I love how the comments are always full of doomposting. Get prepared. Something is coming * soon* And how any even slightly skepctical commend gets downvoted to hell. One may start thinking there are bots promoting the narrative.

Nobody thinks this way, so all the posts saying it must be bots. Wow, look at all the posts saying the thing, there must be a lot of bots.

Or maybe you're choosing to perceive bots when actually a lot of people disagree with you?

Re: White-collar AI apocalypse narrative is just another bullshit

#50

Let's suppose you are a medium sized business. You've always wanted to provide top quality customer service but couldn't do it before because you'd need to hire 5 people to do it right. Instead, you strategically decided to not provide quality customer service and sell the product at a lower price than competitors. So you have no customer service person in the company. Service is bad. It limits growth. But it was str…

In some ways AI sounds almost utopian. I theory it could redistribute manpower more evenly between small and large businesses, allowing them to compete more fairly and improving the efficiency of capitalism (the idealistic model, not the real world state). However, than you remember that the AI tech is currently almost fully in control by the big tech (and its next generation) and you have to ask whether they’ll be able to sabotage that improvement because they will do their worst for sure since liberating the market is not beneficial to them. Let’s hope that despite all odds and current trends we actually reach a state where AI is possible to run on-prem/locally and there are still SOTA models at least as open as they are today.
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