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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#41

Post by A_D_E_P_T »

CalRobert wrote: post #28
ambicapter wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's absolutely insane that Claude Code can spit out a week's worth of business automation tasks in half a day. And do it at relatively high quality in low-defect rate languages like Rust. > Europe won't be able to catch that. You think Europe won't be able to use Claude Code? If Claude Code is the one reaping the majority of the benefits of "spit[ing] out a week's worth of business automation tasks", then it's not…

Well, if it becomes strategically advantageous to bar Europeans from doing so, why would we (Europeans) be permitted continued access?

Open models are, at worst, a few months behind SOTA closed models. This has been the case since 2024, and there's no indication that it's going to change.

You don't need anybody to permit you access.

You can, in all seriousness, thank Meta and the Chinese for this.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#43

Post by gmueckl »

echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

This is an downright evil take on the current situation. The supply chains are so complex that no single country is capable of replicating them entirely. It starts with the fact that the required natural resources are distributed around the globe in a way that no country has access to all of them. The production chains from resources to finished machines are downright byzantine. And this becomes recursive with the need for specialized tools and their own production chains along the way. You need trains amd trucks and ships to be able to build semiconductors, for example. Except for maybe China pr India, there is no country that has the manpower to cover all of this domestically. The supply of workers and training falls far too short.

Any Western strategy that sees this as both "us vs. them" and also pursues reduced international collaboration is bound to lose bitterly in the long run.

The result is either a silent collapse of that country's economy or the start of an ill-conceived war of conquest to gain by force what the country cannot supply itself.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#44

Post by mikeyouse »

arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

This ratchet effect of partially righting the ship every four years followed by drunken sailors YOLOing further into a reef because the ‘responsible party’ didn’t fix things fast enough is unsustainable. No clue how it ends but it’s so much easier to destroy things than it is to build them, so the builders are always at a distinct disadvantage.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#45

Post by kenjackson »

throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

It may be unreliable to you. I see the life of most people around me getting better. Even people that are somewhat poor (not dirt poor, but free lunch poor) have homes, three squares and snacks, PS5, mobile phones with cellular data, and cable tv. The biggest life issues I see are usually strongly related to substance abuse and mental health.

Transplanting to even just the 80s would be a culture shock for most people.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#46

Post by Hikikomori »

alephnerd wrote: post #38
Hikikomori wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The laser source, not the rest of the machine.

The metrology is coming from Taiwan and California (HMI) as well. The Veldhoven campus "only" does final assembly (which should not be underestimated either - it's complex and high precision work). But it's the light source and the metrology that is the blocker. Edit: can't reply > And mirrors from Carl Zeiss Absolutely! But note how Zeiss/Trumpf is not ASML. If the US DoE changes the terms of the Cymer partnership a…

And mirrors from Carl Zeiss. Heavy lifting on "only".

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#48

Post by davidw »

arjie wrote: post #39

One of the things I do like about the US, and that I think is a reason for America's ability to meet the challenges this country faces is that it has good data collection and aggregation mechanisms: from the seemingly-banal surveys and so on to satellite remote-sensing. There's three more years to go but afterwards (and perhaps even post the mid-terms) we should be able to hammer back some of this nonsense like being…

This is going to take a generation or two to fix. If we're lucky and work hard at it.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#49

Post by mattmaroon »

throwawa1 wrote: post #19

Its been unreliable my entire life. Every year the economy gets better but life gets worse. You can't even recognize the country any more.

I honestly think that the idea that this is what’s happening is almost entirely propaganda.

I think people have an overly rosy view of the past and an overly negative view of the present. What has changed more than anything is we all have the 24/7 instantaneous news cycle, and algorithmic propaganda delivery.

Every election year zillion of dollars get spent convincing you the country went to hell in a handbasket because of the other party.

Which is not to say there are not issues, or even some new ones, but I don’t think the present is significantly worse than the past in many ways, and it is significantly better in several

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