Time to get rid of charter and be a normal member of this capitalism :)
The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
41–50 of 411 posts
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#42Purely anecdotal, but GPT 5.4 has been better than Opus 4.6 this past week or so since it came out. It’s interesting to see it rank fairly low on that table. Opus “talks” better and produces nicer output (or, it renders better Markdown in OpenCode) than 5.4.
Not in my experience.
Quoting my tweet:
Gave the same prompt to GPT 5.4 (high) and Opus 4.6 (high).
GPT 5.4 implemented the feature, refactored the code (was not asked to), removed comments that were not added in that session, made the code less readable, and introduced a bug. "Undo All".
Opus 4.6 correctly recognized that the feature is already implemented in the current code (yeah, lol) and proposed implementing tests and updating the docs.
Opus 4.6 is still the best coding agent.
So yeah, GPT 5.4 (high) didn't even check if the feature was already implemented.
Tried other tasks, tried "medium" reasoning - disappointment.
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why? Give it a couple weeks and everybody will forget about this. They'll be earning more money than previously. Job well done.
Just like everyone forgot about this https://www.wired.com/story/openai-staff-walk-protest-sam-al...
Employees are the ones with the real power to make this hurt. The customers switching over are easily offset by the DoD contract. But losing talent over this, and having a harder time to attract future talent? That could hurt them
Sam probably expects to solve this by just offering more money. It worked in the past
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#44"Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is a type of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human capabilities across virtually all cognitive tasks." [Wikipedia] One can argue that they have already achieved this. At least for short termed tasks. Humans are still better at organization, collaboration and carrying out very long tasks like managing a project or a company.
It depends.
SoTA models are at least very close to AGI when it comes to textual and still image inputs for most domains. In many domains, SoTA AI is superhuman both in time and speed. (Not wrt energy efficiency.*)
AI SoTA for video is not at AGI level, clearly.
Many people distinguish intelligence from memory. With this in mind, I think one can argue we’ve reached AGI in terms of “intelligence”; we just haven’t paired it up with enough memory yet.
* Humans have a really compelling advantage in terms of efficiency; brains need something like 20W. But AGI as a threshold has nothing directly to do with power efficiency, does it?
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#45[flagged]
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#46""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…
I 100% understand and agree the AI community argument around lethal autonomy. But I am trying to understand this from the perspective of defence & govt. Why is it so business as usual for them? Do they consider this at par with missiles with infra-red/heat sensors for tracking/locking? Where does the definition of lethal autonomy begin and end? Just putting this out there as a point to ponder on. By itself, this may…
For surveillance at least, multimodal AI is old hat: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentient_(intelligence_analysi...
If you're one of the contractors working in NRO or aware of Sentient, OpenAI and Anthropic probably do look like supply chain risks. They want to subsume the work you're already doing with more extreme limitations (ones that might already be violated). So now you're pitching backup service providers, analyzing the cost of on-prem, and pricing out your own model training; it would be really convenient if OpenAI just agreed to terms. As a contractor, you can make them an offer so good that it would be career suicide to refuse it.
Autonomous weapons are a horse of a different color, but it's safe to assume the same discussions are happening inside Anduril et. al.
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#47OpenAI: - we are building Open AI - only if you have more than $10B net worth - we are against using AI for military purposes - except when that case is allowed by government - we are on a mission to help humanity - again, we define humanity as set of people with more than $10B net worth - surrender? - sure, sure, we will, only to people with more than $10B net worth, they can do whatever they want to our models, we…
Anyone can make these silly negations.
As if any other big corp is different.
And as if your own imaginary big corp (if you took the time and effort to try to achieve, that is) would have behaved differently given enough pressure from investors and share holders.
This is all just very naive
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#48>uses arena ranking only
>claims to be some topshot data scientist
okay
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#49> The impotence of naive idealism in the face of economic incentives. I don't think it was so much the naivety of idealism, but more an adoption of idealism and related language to help market what was actually being built: a profit-first organization that's taking its true form little by little.
I genuinely dont think it was profit first thenm i think it was all in good faith. Altman definitely got greedy and stabbed all that in the back
This is an extraordinary claim and it requires extraordinary evidence. There is nothing in Altman’s behavior current or past to suggest this was anything other then a money making grift. The easiest explanation for his betrayal is that he was simply lying.
Re: The changing goalposts of AGI and timelines
#50""" I resigned from OpenAI. I care deeply about the Robotics team and the work we built together. This wasn’t an easy call. AI has an important role in national security. But surveillance of Americans without judicial oversight and lethal autonomy without human authorization are lines that deserved more deliberation than they got. This was about principle, not people. I have deep respect for Sam and the team, and I’m…
[flagged]
Are you keeping your own absolutist assumptions in-check?