Lindsey Graham candidly admitting to being the agent of a foreign country is a National-Security threat.
War prediction markets are a national-security threat
41–50 of 162 posts
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#42I think it's safe to say that beside national security risks. Allowing unrestricted betting on pretty much anything in the world is just not something we should have...
Third order effect on post-AGI economics when those with expensive mortgages lose their jobs to AGI, can no-longer afford them, burn through their savings and get wiped out in a financial market crash because most of them used their RSUs to get mortgages for their homes, which now does not make any sense today.
Then gambling on prediction markets, stocks, crypto etc will be the new normal.
This is post-AGI.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#43Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.
You couldn’t design a better system for incentivizing leaks if you were trying. Hell, the CEO literally said as much. Not sure how you can conclude the markets aren’t the problem.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#44Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
Yeah we should ban derivatives too.
I hope everyone reading this realizes that commodity futures are useful and easily distinguished from prediction markets, which are a ruse to get around restrictions on gambling.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#45Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
> Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead
This is why I'm opposed to prediction markets - they're gamified futures contracts (unsurprising given the founders at Kalshi are ex-Citadel and why Intercontinental Exchange executed growth equity rounds with Polymarket). A lot of degenerate gamblers are basically being taken to the cleaners as they lack the experience to actually mitigate risk or understand how to strucure futures contracts.
And an actual insider has much easier and much more legally defensible alternatives to conduct insider trading than using a platform that has KYC requirements.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#46Rhetorical question: why do non-insiders still bet in these markets? Surely, after all of the focus on insiders, people will begin to realize that betting without insider knowledge is a fool’s gambit..
Because the way these companies make money is incentivizing the behavior of gambling addicts. It's just like asking why people will continue taking drugs if it's known to harm them.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#47Lindsey Graham candidly admitting to being the agent of a foreign country is a National-Security threat.
He's not afraid because there are countless others in congress.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#48Isnt this silly when you can calculate the chance of war in Iran by oil futures instead. Prediction markets are just explicit markers of information that is already being traded on in 100 different ways.
Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.
No idea why you're being downvoted, there is a mountain of evidence that this is the case. We are doing this because of Israel.
Marco Rubio said outright we went in because of Israel. Just watch Trump's speeches, he literally talks about the power of the Israel lobby and hopes he is doing a good job for them. Netanyahu has visited Trump 7 times in the last year, each visit has been leading up to this move. Trump's biggest mega donors are Israeli dual citizens with strong ties to their home country. Miriam Adelson, Sheldon Adelson, Larry Elison (who has conveniently taken control of the TikTok algorithm and banned the phrase "#freepalestine" through his connection with Trump) have donated hundreds of millions for this exact outcome. These donors have direct ties to the Israeli government.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/13/who-is-miriam-adel...
There is very little evidence that the strikes are being driven by oil, in fact oil is the perfect excuse to use as cover. It was the exact same thing with the Iraq war. Iraq and Iran were the two largest threats to Israel, we went into Iraq to regime change them and now we are finishing the job with Iran. Now there are no threats to Israel's expansion to the rest of the middle east. The ruling party (Likud) supports the Greater Israel project, which aims to expand Israel's borders to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#49> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, an account under the username “magamyman” bet about $20,000 that the supreme leader would no longer be in power by the end of March. I know this is more for the drama than an actual claim, but it made me w…
>> Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was not, it’s safe to assume, a devoted Polymarket user. If he had been, the Iranian leader might still be alive. Hours before Khamenei’s compound in Tehran was reduced to rubble last week, Or you know, be in a bunker dug into the mountains somewhere, rather than being in your official residence? He was a 86 year old man faced with the prospect of living the rest of his life in a bunker, so…
It wasnt just that he was in his official residence, he was having a high level meeting with other senior members of the Iranian government. It seems likely the war started early (normally america strikes in the middle of the night) simply because all the people they wanted to assainate were all in one spot above ground and that was too good an opportunity to pass up.
Its really hard to imagine why anyone would do something that stupid when america just parked an aircraft carrier off your coast and looks to be spoiling for a fight.
Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat
#50You could just watch the movement of tankers and jets to the middle east on flight trackers. It was extremely easy to see this coming.
Note: the owner of the Atlantic has ties to Epstein and Israel. They are extremely biased on anything to do with this war in Iran.