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Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

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Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#41

Post by alephnerd »

pm90 wrote: post #38
alephnerd wrote: post #28

As I previously mentioned, based on person experience assumptions around hiring have changed due to the Twitter layoffs, demands for FCF positivity, and WFH inadvertently justifying offshoring [0], not necessarily due to interest rate changes. --- As I also mentioned, the only way you can survive in American tech at this point is to: 1. Move to a Tier 1 tech hub like the Bay and NYC. If you get laid off, you will pro…

I don’t believe this is true. There are plenty of roles that are happy to hire remotely. Sure, there is an in person requirement for many job listings but Ive found EMs/companies to be very flexible if they need to hire talent. For people that can’t/dont want to move to the “hubs”, just know that there is absolutely still a career path. I will say though that you need to have above average communication skills and pr…

There absolutely are remote first roles in the US, but the competition is also extremely intense. The median SWE and HNer wouldn't make the cut.

It also requires a level of maturity, clear thinking, self-starterness, and independence that is hard to come by without a proven track record and experience.

My advice is for the median/average SWE and HNer, not for the truly exceptional.

Spending a 7-10 years in a hub and then going remote first is the best path because you build the network you need to get referrals to vouch for you as a remote-first hire well as the track record needed to go remote-first.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#42

Post by tayo42 »

mamcx wrote: post #29
ICantFeelMyToes wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True but there is also a massive proliferation of ghost jobs. Dirty secret for a bunch of Series A places

I'm looking for job (in Rust) now and is absurd how many positions are for training LLMS -in Rust!- (yeah, lets help the people that wanna put everyone out of jobs)

What companies are hiring people to use rust?

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#43

Post by kittikitti »

Although the graph lists BLS data as the source, it's hard for me to find the specific datasets that back it up. It's March 2026 and the graph indicates it would encapsulate 2025. In fact, the "Software Development Job Postings on Indeed in the United States" indicate something different, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1T60O

I was able to find the following:

- Software Publishers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051320001

  - Regional data available only, numerous national statistics are discontinued

  - California region matches up, but places like Boston don't https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU25000005051320001
- Computing Infrastructure Providers https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051800001

  - Matches up perfectly, no notes here.
- Computer Systems Design https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES6054150001

  - However, the graph in the tweet doesn't include the February data (even though it claims "recent") which shows an increase
- Web Search Portals https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES5051900001

  - Matches up, but February data isn't in the graph which shows an increase from January
- Streaming Services https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU06000005051620001

  - Doesn't include January or February 2026 data, doesn't match up with graph in tweet
I wasn't able to find the following: - Custom Computer Programming Services

There are numerous open questions in this analysis which I would need to be addressed before drawing any conclusions. My gut feeling would love to accept it at face value but I never trust my gut.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#44

Post by serial_dev »

mjr00 wrote: post #15

In my experience, tech employment is incredibly bimodal right now. Top candidates are commanding higher salaries than ever, but an "average" developer is going to have an extremely hard time finding a position. Contrary to what many say, I don't think it's simple as seniors are getting hired and juniors aren't. Juniors are still getting hired because they're still way cheaper and they're just as capable as using AI a…

I’m not sure it is just that, I don’t even see positions listed where I would like to work. For salary ranges, I see lower upper limits than my second best offer three n half years ago. Considering the high inflation, that’s crazy.

I would not mind switching but 1. I don’t see interesting positions 2. they don’t pay well, and only 3. they might not even want me.

It might also be just my niche, but finding a good position feels completely impossible for me.

I am doing cross platform mobile development and I’m wondering how I could transition into backend development or I started even considering the decentralized finance…

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#45

Post by dimgl »

QuercusMax wrote: post #22
kaeruct wrote: post #6

https://xcancel.com/JosephPolitano/status/202991636466461124...

What that graph looks like to me is that there were a ton of marginal folks hired during COVID, and we're shedding a lot of those folks who probably shouldn't have been hired anyway.

Unfortunately... I want to mirror this sentiment. I interviewed a lot of candidates (and worked with many teammates) in my last few roles and I saw some pretty worrying trends...

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#47

Post by nxm »

mamcx wrote: post #29
ICantFeelMyToes wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True but there is also a massive proliferation of ghost jobs. Dirty secret for a bunch of Series A places

I'm looking for job (in Rust) now and is absurd how many positions are for training LLMS -in Rust!- (yeah, lets help the people that wanna put everyone out of jobs)

If you don’t then someone else will… genie is out of the bottle

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#48

Post by fhd2 »

mjr00 wrote: post #30
electronsoup wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and they're just as capable as using AI as anyone Wouldn't the assumption be the opposite, in that AI is magnifying the decision making of the engineer and so you get more payback by having the senior drive the AI?

For a good senior, yes you get massive returns, which is why those good seniors are in incredibly high demand right now. For average to low-performing intermediates/seniors... there's not much difference in output between them and a good junior at this point. Claude really raised the skill floor for software development.

My thinking is a bit different here: Seniors, even mediocre ones, already learned a lot of hard lessons by doing things pre-LLMs, even pre-SO. Those skills are valuable and I don't know how to train them into juniors.

I find it easier to get a reasonably smart senior to use AI in a good way, than to train a junior in what thinking to do, and what to outsource, learning basics about good design, robustness and risk analysis. The tools aren't the problem per se, it's more about how people use them. Bit of a slippery slope.

That's just my anecdotal experience from not a whole lot of data though. I think the industry will figure it out once things calm down a bit. Right now, I usually make the bet to get one senior rather than two juniors. Quite different to my strategy from a few years ago.

Re: Tech employment now significantly worse than the 2008 or 2020 recessions

#49

Post by alephnerd »

wnolens wrote: post #46

Anyone else's inbox slammed with recruiters, more than it ever has been in the past? Feels like there's 10x the jobs available, but perhaps it's just that LLMs have automated a recruiter's job and they're letting the slop fly

Depends on your geo. If you're in the Bay, NYC, and maybe a few other hubs hiring remains strong.

The "inshoring" hubs like RTP and Denver or those hubs that are dominated by a handful of oversized companies like Seattle are the worst impacted.

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