Russia's economy has entered the death zone • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#41

Post by wiseowise » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:52 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #13

tonymet wrote: post #7

Déjà vu … Since Crimea Invasion Russia’s Economy Is On the Brink of Collapse" – CNN Business, December 2014. "The End of the Putin Era? Russia’s Economy Is Tanking" – Newsweek, December 2014. "Russia Heading for Economic 'Colossal Collapse'" – BBC News (quoting Alexei Kudrin), December 2014. "How the Oil Price Collapse Could Topple Putin" – The Guardian, 2015. "Russia’s Economy Is a Mess" – The Atlantic, February 201…

Yes, it seems like that’s the propaganda. The free speech democratic West, instead of reporting about the objective truth, tells us half truths for their own benefit.

Western news resources aren’t controlled by government, unlike Russia. So they have incentive to post what generates clicks, not necessarily what reflects reality.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#42

Post by mdavid626 » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:52 PM UTC

konart wrote: post #32

mdavid626 wrote: post #4

What is Europe/USA fueled by? Debt. The Bubble. Is that sustainable? I don’t think so. What’s the point of the article? To prove the west’s superiority?

I think you do not quite understand what debt is. Just like most people in our beloved Russia.

Or maybe you don’t understand what debt actually is.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#43

Post by pavel_lishin » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:52 PM UTC

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence.

I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#44

Post by kergonath » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:53 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #11

vondur wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is probably true, but if they are selling at a loss, it can only go on for so long.

Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.

Ukraine is also very hard to completely destroy, either militarily or economically. And Ukraine is in an existential struggle, I don’t see the Ukrainians caving.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#45

Post by crossbody » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:53 PM UTC

phicoh wrote: post #31

chowells wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone with no firsthand knowledge at all, I am inclined to believe your position is correct. But I also think the Economist is making an important point: Russia's continued prosecution of this war will shred their internal economy with consequences lasting for decades or centuries. What people often underestimate is just how much damage an economy can suffer before breaking down entirely. But Putin doesn't care…

The EU is rich enough to support Ukraine for a very long time. During that time it is likely that Ukraine develops better and better weapons. This requires Russian army to improve as well. It's not clear how the Russian army will improve when the economy declines.

The EU is rich enough but will they stay "willing enough"? Unfortunately, many EU parties that are gaining popularity are also against spending money on Ukraine

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#46

Post by falcor84 » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:54 PM UTC

nosianu wrote: post #16

mdavid626 wrote: post #4

What is Europe/USA fueled by? Debt. The Bubble. Is that sustainable? I don’t think so. What’s the point of the article? To prove the west’s superiority?

> Debt That is the very basis of our currency, and the basic idea is a good one in an idea-heavy economy more reliant on innovation than natural resource constraints. Also, if truly becomes too much we will just have one of the many many currency changes. My grandparents lived with about five (could be as many as seven) currencies throughout their (German) lives, for example. As long as the real values remain, the fa…

And I'll just use this opportunity to recommend David Graeber's "Debt: The First 5,000 Years" - a wonderful book about the history of economy, demonstrating how it always boils down to effective use of debt.

There are tons of great parts in it, but one that really stuck with me is his analysis of the social dynamics whereby when someone brings you a gift or otherwise does something expensive for you, you are temporarily in debt to them, and the polite expectation is that you always pay it back in a way whereby you give more than you owe, such that they will then be in debt to you (generally for approximately the same amount), and the relationship can continue oscillating, with each of you being in debt about half the time. Paying back exactly what you were given and not a penny more is thus considered to be an indication that you want to discontinue the relationship.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#47

Post by elektronika » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:54 PM UTC

tonymet wrote: post #7

Déjà vu … Since Crimea Invasion Russia’s Economy Is On the Brink of Collapse" – CNN Business, December 2014. "The End of the Putin Era? Russia’s Economy Is Tanking" – Newsweek, December 2014. "Russia Heading for Economic 'Colossal Collapse'" – BBC News (quoting Alexei Kudrin), December 2014. "How the Oil Price Collapse Could Topple Putin" – The Guardian, 2015. "Russia’s Economy Is a Mess" – The Atlantic, February 201…

So glad we don't have propaganda, only independent journalists who just coincidentally parrot the same think-tank talking points. See the wealth of articles that are even more obviously wrong predicting China's collapse.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#48

Post by phicoh » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:54 PM UTC

kergonath wrote: post #30

k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a pop…

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine.

Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time.

For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russia. Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#49

Post by squidbeak » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC

mdavid626 wrote: post #40

squidbeak wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you imagine Ukraine's desire for sovereignty would be exhausted before Russia's stomach for economic hardship? Do you really think the Russia public has the stamina even for the 4 more years it will take them to capture the rest of Donbas?

Russia doesn’t have any other choice, than to continue. Same applies for the West.

Russia could end the war today if it wanted to.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#50

Post by wuschel » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 7:55 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #43

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

I think the problem is that there is not much data presented in this article - or other articles of that kind.

Systems are resilient - until they are not, and exhibit sudden factures and fast collapse.

The question is not whether Russia collapses or not, but who would be making profit from such a scenario, and who is keen on keeping the current state of affairs.