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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

bloomberg.com

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#41

Post by daymanstep »

myrmidon wrote: post #8
GiorgioG wrote: post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

I think the "cost of living" explanation for low birthrates is just wrong, and not even plausible (anecdote: my grandmother had 17 siblings, and they could not even afford proper sunday shoes for all of them, much less current living standards). I think the biggest impact is from kids being obsolete/net negative as both workforce (when young) and retirement scheme (when the parents are old). But there is no reverting…

I can't agree with you enough. I am so sick and tired of the cost of living argument. Back in the 1800s people were living in tiny cramped places and having 5-6 kids while barely able to afford necessities.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#42

Post by someperson »

gadders wrote: post #6

Sounds hellish. "His administration is focused on delivering on his promise to reduce the immigrant population and argues, despite the protestations of economists, that doing so will mean greater opportunities and wages for native-born workers and will reduce the cost of everything from housing to health care by reducing demand. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President…

I wish there were more reasoned debate and distinguishing between legal immigration including tech workers (H-1B visas) versus illegal immigration for eg food truck workers, DoorDash scooter drivers.

Also the lack of knowledge about the existence of the fantastic and generous H-2A visa for farm workers is maddening.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#44

Post by jeffbee »

daymanstep wrote: post #21
jeffbee wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force" - amazing that you can get people to believe that. There is a massive shortage of labor and the labor force participation rate is already dangerously high.

There is no labor shortage. Look at layoffs and job openings - lowest since 2020.

Yes, Trump is also successfully destroying the demand side of the labor economy at the same time. Is that what his supporters imagined that sentence means? It is nevertheless the case that the prime-age labor force participation rate is bouncing off 85% and getting it any higher than that is impossible.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#45

Post by nradov »

mmastrac wrote: post #37
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need young people to pay for old people retirement (economically speaking, someone has to be working when someone else is just eating).

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

Despite the hype cycle around humanoid robots it's unlikely that they'll advance enough to be capable of replacing many human workers in nursing homes and assisted-living facilities within our lifetimes. Expect to see lots of really sad stories about elder abuse and neglect because as a society we simply won't have the resources to adequately care for them all.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#46

Post by CodingJeebus »

mmastrac wrote: post #37
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need young people to pay for old people retirement (economically speaking, someone has to be working when someone else is just eating).

I really hope that automation and robotics will _finally_ allow us to invert the pyramid.

It won't. The economic gains of automation will continue to be captured by the capital-owning class. It's simply too valuable to just give over to the masses.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#48

Post by yoyohello13 »

The primary cause of low birth rates is that society does not value children.

Sure we talk a big game, everything is 'for the children' obviously. However, we publicly divest from schools, we invest in technologies that devalue humans and human labor. Growing up we make people believe they need to be millionaires just to not be swallowed up by the 9-to-5 meat grinder (this is true actually). It's no wonder young people don't value family when every signal in our society is telling them not to.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#49

Post by seanmcdirmid »

someperson wrote: post #42
gadders wrote: post #6

Sounds hellish. "His administration is focused on delivering on his promise to reduce the immigrant population and argues, despite the protestations of economists, that doing so will mean greater opportunities and wages for native-born workers and will reduce the cost of everything from housing to health care by reducing demand. “There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President…

I wish there were more reasoned debate and distinguishing between legal immigration including tech workers (H-1B visas) versus illegal immigration for eg food truck workers, DoorDash scooter drivers. Also the lack of knowledge about the existence of the fantastic and generous H-2A visa for farm workers is maddening.

H-2A is expensive and prone to abuse. It is generally considered a failure by both employers and workers who participate in it. So I’m guessing your use of fantastic and generous is either sarcasm or uninformed?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#50

Post by Buttons840 »

GiorgioG wrote: post #2

Maybe if young folks could afford housing they'd have kids...there's a thought.

Lots of people are doing the math and explaining why what the people who aren't having kids are saying is wrong. They have their math and the people still don't have kids.
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