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TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

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Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#41

Post by earthnail »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

Not necessarily. If TSMC doesn’t build these fabs in Japan or USA, these governments might just mandate that chips are manufactured elsewhere. Intel could have a big comeback.

This keeps ppl locked in to the TSMC universe. The Japan and US fabs produce just a fraction of what these countries need.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#42

Post by KK7NIL »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

The US protected Taiwanese sovereignty for decades before they even had a single semiconductor fab. This idea of "the silicon shield" just shows a complete ignorance of the history of Taiwan and its place in the geopolitical order.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#43

Post by hirako2000 »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

More so a damage control move. In the eventuality Taiwan, and its factually on Chinese land production sites get affected, it won't affect as much the supply chain as it otherwise would.

The U.S and Japan indeed will have less incentive to defend the sovereignty of Taiwan, but other reasons remain to ensure the statu quo remains. Purely geopolitical, not just industrial.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#44

Post by jorvi »

avhception wrote: post #29
kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

High-end chips should be more of a EU concerted effort rather than every country for itself.

The problem is that unlike Airbus, which (highly inefficiently) can be made in multiple countries, you can't really spread out parts of a fab that way. The most you can do is fab machines + chips + chip packaging. Netherlands already has fab machines and in packaging there isn't a high margin.

That leaves chips, and you can be sure that whoever gets the fabs, the other EU countries will throw a shit fit and demand counter investments to compensate. And on top of that there is also regional animosity. So even if it makes logical sense to pop the fab down in the middle of the blue banana, it won't make political sense because France and all of South and East EU will be angry about "the rich getting richer".

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#45

Post by gexla »

yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

I would argue the chips don't even matter (important, but not as a reason for defending Taiwan.) It's a strategically important location that is a stone's throw from Japanese islands. If Japan feels the need, then nukes may be on the table. If that were to happen, S. Korea may not be far behind. And the cycle spirals.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#46

Post by XorNot »

KK7NIL wrote: post #42
yanhangyhy wrote: post #18

Taiwanese politicians, like those under American-style democracy in many regions, only care about safeguarding their own interests and have no concern for how to protect the interests of the public. Once TSMC’s factories are completed in Japan and the United States and the technology is secured, Taiwan will no longer have any value worth protecting. Of course, the politicians can always take planes and leave in advan…

The US protected Taiwanese sovereignty for decades before they even had a single semiconductor fab. This idea of "the silicon shield" just shows a complete ignorance of the history of Taiwan and its place in the geopolitical order.

The US historically did not threaten military action against NATO allied nations as well.

The past is of no value in predicting the future right now.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#47

Post by jeeeb »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #17
SilverElfin wrote: post #2

Isn’t this an erosion of the silicon shield Taiwan is protected by? If they make semiconductors everywhere else then the world has less economic incentive to protect Taiwan from war.

Seems likely that Takaichi has given Taiwan a Japanese security guarantee. [1] This may be a quid pro quo. [1] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p-4nFgs9fRE

Japan giving a security guarantee to Taiwan would be major news!

In reality no such thing happened and one YouTube video of a handful of protestors doesn’t make it so.

What she did say is that a Chinese attack on Taiwan _could_ clearly become an existential threat to Japan. Note that key word _could_

Which… of course it could!

Japan hosts multiple US military bases. If it developed into an armed conflict between the US and China then it’s exceedingly likely that Japan would be attacked. Think Chinese missiles aimed At Yokosuka, just south of Tokyo.

Not only that but Japan and China have multiple territorial disputes. It’s not hard to imagine China deciding to go all in and settle those as well.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#48

Post by Jean-Papoulos »

raincole wrote: post #24
AlexCoventry wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems likely that Takaichi has given Taiwan a Japanese security guarantee. [1] This may be a quid pro quo. [1] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p-4nFgs9fRE

She didn't give a security guarantee. And even if she wanted she can't. Japan can't even sell arms to Taiwan right now. Even starting selling arms would be a huge change, let alone a mutual defensive pact. It's extremely hard to change the constitution of Japan. It's the only constitution that has never been revised since WWII. LDP has been pushing this agenda for decades and nothing really happened.

Japan's foreign policy about Taiwan includes the notion that an attack on Taiwan is an "existential threat" to Japan, enabling a constitutional reasonning for a war in such a case.

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#49

Post by 15155 »

avhception wrote: post #29
kyboren wrote: post #23

Japan and America have now both gotten TSMC to commit to a decent level of domestic advanced-node fabrication. Meanwhile Europe only got 40k WSPMs of 12+ nm capacity: https://overclock3d.net/news/software/bringing_advanced_semi...

Germany squandered so much money on nonsense, when they could have simply driven the few kilometers over to Eindhoven and bought an ASML machine for "Silicon Saxony". Sure, it would have taken years and years and serious commitment by the government and private sector to make that a successful move. But instead of putting in the hard work with a clear vision for the future, we mostly spend our time whining and wailin…

[flagged]

Re: TSMC to make advanced AI semiconductors in Japan

#50

Post by p-e-w »

raincole wrote: post #24
AlexCoventry wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems likely that Takaichi has given Taiwan a Japanese security guarantee. [1] This may be a quid pro quo. [1] https://www.youtube.com/shorts/p-4nFgs9fRE

She didn't give a security guarantee. And even if she wanted she can't. Japan can't even sell arms to Taiwan right now. Even starting selling arms would be a huge change, let alone a mutual defensive pact. It's extremely hard to change the constitution of Japan. It's the only constitution that has never been revised since WWII. LDP has been pushing this agenda for decades and nothing really happened.

> It's extremely hard to change the constitution of Japan.

It’s easy to ignore or work around it though, just like it routinely happens for every other constitution in the world.

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