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Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>One crash in this context is going to just completely blow out their statistics. One crash in 500,000 miles would merely put them on par with a human driver. One crash every 50,000 miles would be more like having my sister behind the wheel. I’ll be sure to tell the next insurer that she’s not a bad driver - she’s just one person operating an itty bitty fleet consisting of one vehicle! If the cybertaxi were a human d…

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#42
post #31
post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

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I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples.

If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in.

1: https://hsph.harvard.edu/news/usaid-shutdown-has-led-to-hund...

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#43
post #42
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples. If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in. 1: https://hsph.h…

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#44
post #7

The comparison isn't really like-for-like. NHTSA SGO AV reports can include very minor, low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers, meaning the Tesla crash count may be drawing from a broader category than the human baseline it's being compared to. There's also a denominator problem. The mileage figure appears to be cumulative miles "as of November," while the…

> The comparison isn't really like-for-like.

This is a statement of fact but based on this assumption:

> low-speed contact events that would often never show up as police-reported crashes for human drivers

Assumptions work just as well both ways. Musk and Tesla have been consistently opaque when it comes to the real numbers they base their advertising on. Given this past history of total lack of transparency and outright lies it's safe to assume that any data provided by Tesla that can't be independently verified by multiple sources is heavily skewed in Tesla's favor. Whatever safety numbers Tesla puts out you can bet your hat they're worse in reality.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#45
post #42
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples. If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in. 1: https://hsph.h…

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Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#46

To be honest I think the true story here is: > the fleet has traveled approximately 500,000 miles Let's say they average 10mph, and say they operate 10 hours a day, that's 5,000 car-days of travel, or to put it another way about 30 cars over 6 months. That's tiny! That's a robotaxi company that is literally smaller than a lot of taxi companies. One crash in this context is going to just completely blow out their stat…

Wait, so your argument is there's only 9 crashes so we should wait until there's possibly 9,000 crashes to make an assessment? That's crazy dangerous.

At least 3 of them sound dangerous already, and it's on Tesla to convince us they're safe. It could be a statistical anomaly so far, but hovering at 9x the alternative doesn't provide confidence.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#47

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#48
post #45
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would call strong opposition to Musk a democratic responsibility, not a derangement. We are talking about a guy with a fondness for the far right and throwing Nazi salutes, and whose destruction of USAID had, by November 2025, resulted in “hundreds of thousands of deaths”. [1] Those, of course, are just a couple of examples. If strong opposition to that kind of evil makes me deranged, count me in. 1: https://hsph.h…

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>The "salute" in particular is simply a politically-expedient freeze-frame from a Musk speech, where he said "my heart goes out to you all" and happened to raise his arm.

Yeah, no. I thought so as well initially but then I saw the video. The guy throws out his arm straight out multiple times.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#49

Elon promised self driving cars in 12 months back in 2017? He’s also promising Optimus robots doing surgery on humans in 3 years? Extrapolating…………… Optimus is going to kill some humans and it will all be worth it!

Elon is aware that Tesla insane market valuation would crash 10x if it stays a car company.

There isn't enough money and most importantly margin in the car industry to warrant such a valuation, so he has to pivot away from cars into the next thing.

Just to make an example of how risky it is to be a car company for Tesla.

In 2025 Toyota has had: 3.5 times Tesla's revenue, 8 times the net income and twice the margin.

And Toyota has a market cap that is 6 times lower than Tesla.

It would take tesla a gargantuan effort to match Toyota's numbers and margins, and if it matched it...it would be a disaster for Tesla's stock.

Hell, Tesla makes much less money than Mercedes Benz and with a smaller margin..

Mercedes has 60% more revenue and twice the net income. Yet, Tesla is valued around 40 times Mercedes-Benz.

Tesla *must* pivot away from cars and make it a side business or sooner or later that stuff is crashing, and it will crash fast and hard.

Musk understands that, which is why he focusing on robo taxis and robots. It's the only way to sell Tesla to naive investors.

Re: Tesla’s autonomous vehicles are crashing at a rate much higher tha human drivers

#50
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you ever driven more than 200km at an average of 80km/h with enough turns on the highway? Perhaps after work, just to see your family once a month? Driver fatigue is real, no matter how much coffee you take. Lane-keep is a game changer if the UX is well done. I'm way more rested when I arrive at destination with my Model 3 compared to when I use the regular ICE with bad lane-assist UX. EDIT: the fact that people…

If you're on a road trip, pull the fuck over and sleep. Your schedule isn't worth somebody else's life. If that's your commute, get a new apartment or get a new job. Endangering everybody else with drowsy driving isn't an option you should ever find tenable.

You are correct - but the reality is many humans do those stupid things.
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