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Software Pump and Dump

tautvilas.lt

41–50 of 166 posts

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#42
post #7

I really don’t get the strategy here. What do the coins have to do with the project? Why would someone who was “lured” into using the project buy the coins? Why would someone speculating on the coins use the project? What’s the connection? I’m genuinely having a hard time understanding what there even is for someone to “fall for” here. How does any of this trick anyone? I guess I really am just that out of touch with…

[flagged]

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#43
post #22

What worries me even more is tens of thousands (or even magnitudes higher) half-baked, over-hyped, vibe-coded spaghetti "open-source projects" released publicly for clout or to attract investment. It is like all the garbage papers you find in academia that you need to sift through until you find that one good paper. Needle in a haystack. 2026 will be the year of vibe-code driven enshittification. Github will be the c…

In the last 6 months we've seen no fewer then a dozen vibe coded/AI assisted open source, self hosted projects launch that complete against ours. So far all but one has fizzled out, with the same pattern each time: announcement, repo with 1 giant commit, 2-4 months of feature releases, loss of interest from the author, and finally abandonment.

I expect once users get burnt enough time, they'll stop adopting the new cool thing until it's been out long enough with consistent releases.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#44
post #39
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People can spin up magic crypto coins backed by other crypto coins at the push of a button. Dirtbag crypto people will spin up a coin in the name of someone's software product, give the project owner a bunch of coin, make them feel special like they're suddenly part of lots of money, and then astroturf and pump the coin as much as they can before setting up for a rugpull by either the project owner trying to cash out…

You didn't answer the question though, you just double downed on crypto=bad. If someone posts a github link of some LLM tool, clawbot or whatever. You are free to run or fork it and then some crypto bro creates a clawbot $coin.. nobody is forcing you to buy the $coin.

Crypto or meme stock pump and dump is a game gamblers can play knowing exactly what they’re doing. They need to coordinate on where they will play the game next, and any excuse will do.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#45
post #40

FWIW I’ve been in enough of these cycles to see the same pattern play out now with software + AI hype that I saw back in crypto land. You get: some half-baked project that looks cool until you actually try it, a flood of “look at me I’m first” blog posts and influencers hyping the hell out of it, people and companies saying they’re building on it because they don’t want to be left behind, a weird intersection with to…

I mean besides crypto and ai being big investments, i barely see any parallels. AI you can actually use to build useful things in the world , and tokens are used not as trading , but transactional currency to do that building.

I did a lot of postgraduate research around crypto from 2011 - 2016. There are a lot of parallels, and your message adds to them.

"x is different because we can actually do useful stuff with it" is what every x enthusiast deep in an x bubble or pump n dump says about x.

When the next big tech bubble comes along in 10 - 15 years, there will be people saying exactly what you just said: "NextBigTech you can actually use to build useful things in the world, and NextBigTech thing actually does that building, not just what LastBigTech thing (AI) did, that obviously didn't deliver the utopia it promised".

I wonder what it'll be. AGI? Quantum computing? Brain computer interfaces?

I'd love to pickup this conversation again with you in 15 years.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who is currently looking to setup local CI for macOS hardware, that'd be neat :) Unrelated; For CI, what hardware would people recommend? I'm choosing between mac Mini (M4 Pro) and Mac Studio (M3 Ultra) but haven't digged into the CPU difference yet to understand what would be best. Opinions?

How heavy is your CI workload? Even the base Mac Mini is equipped with a pretty beefy CPU, but obviously it has limited RAM/storage (although the latter can be solved with a cheap external SSD enclosure).

It's basically for private/personal usage, almost no concurrent jobs ever, but I don't have the entire day to wait for builds. Doing maybe 10-12 builds per day on average. Storage won't be an issue, it'll be networked from outside of the box, but I'm curious if there is massive difference in performance between M4 Pro and M3 Ultra. FWIW, I'm mostly doing Rust builds at the moment.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#47
The new shit-coin-as-a-service app(Bags) is a fascinating evolution of the system. Shitcoins started as a mechanism to monetize your own fame but have apparently evolved so you can monetize other people's fame.

On one hand this is pretty obviously dumb but on the other maybe I'm just not 'getting it' and if shit-coin-speculators want to help finance OSS projects (vibe coded or no) why complain about it?

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#48
post #19
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So I guess it’s just FOMO, because I still can’t really relate to why anyone would actually buy any of those coins.

Exactly. People are buying those coins because they believe other people will buy them, increasing their value.

Sounds like investors in Cursor.

Cursor was popular because it was reselling OpenAI at a loss, so for 20 USD / month you could consume 200 USD of tokens per day, but now it's over.

Founders (coins minters) are leaving the ship.

The last ones to leave the ship are going to be left holding the bag.

Re: Software Pump and Dump

#49
> AI models became much better and even doing a "ralph loop" on a simple prompt in a few hours could produce copious amount of working code. As a result you have burned through thousands of dollars of tokens to get some barely working "product" but you had no idea who or why would use it.

Not with a plan from Anthropic or OpenAI. It seems like using pure API is a status symbol among some developers. Look how much I spend on tokens.

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