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OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

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Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#41

Post by alexpotato »

pavel_lishin wrote: post #40
alexpotato wrote: post #29

You sometimes hear people say "I mean, we can't just give an AI a bunch of money/important decisions and expect it to do ok" but this is already happening and has been for years. Examples: - Algorithmic trading: I once embedded on an Options trading desk. The head of desk mentioned that he didn't really know what the PnL was during trading hours b/c the swings were so big that only the computer algos knew if the deci…

But none of those things are AI in the same sense that we use the term now, to refer to LLMs.

But those things were considered on the same level of current LLMs in the sense of "well, a computer might do part of my job but not ALL of it".

No, algorithmic trading didn't replace everything a trader did but it most certainly replaced large parts of the workload and made it much faster and horizontally scalable.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#42

Post by SoftTalker »

johnohara wrote: post #30

> The President sits at the top of the classification hierarchy. Constitutionally, and in theory as Commander-In-Chief, perhaps. But in practice, it does not seem so. Worse yet, it's been reported the current President doesn't even bother to read the daily briefing as he doesn't trust it.

And the last president couldn't comprehend it.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#43

Post by djwide »

johnohara wrote: post #30

> The President sits at the top of the classification hierarchy. Constitutionally, and in theory as Commander-In-Chief, perhaps. But in practice, it does not seem so. Worse yet, it's been reported the current President doesn't even bother to read the daily briefing as he doesn't trust it.

I point that out a little bit when I refer to agencies being discouraged from sharing information. The CIA may be worried about losing HUMINT data to the NSA for example. You may be referring to them worrying about compartmentalizing the information away from the president as well which you are right happens to some extent now but shouldn't 'in theory'. Maybe it's a don't ask don't tell. I think Cheney blew the cover of an intel asset though.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#44

Post by djwide »

alexpotato wrote: post #29

You sometimes hear people say "I mean, we can't just give an AI a bunch of money/important decisions and expect it to do ok" but this is already happening and has been for years. Examples: - Algorithmic trading: I once embedded on an Options trading desk. The head of desk mentioned that he didn't really know what the PnL was during trading hours b/c the swings were so big that only the computer algos knew if the deci…

I'm saying there's something structurally different form autonomous systems generally and from an LLM corpus which has all of the information in one place and at least in theory extractable by one user.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#45

Post by handedness »

djwide wrote: post #43
johnohara wrote: post #30

> The President sits at the top of the classification hierarchy. Constitutionally, and in theory as Commander-In-Chief, perhaps. But in practice, it does not seem so. Worse yet, it's been reported the current President doesn't even bother to read the daily briefing as he doesn't trust it.

I point that out a little bit when I refer to agencies being discouraged from sharing information. The CIA may be worried about losing HUMINT data to the NSA for example. You may be referring to them worrying about compartmentalizing the information away from the president as well which you are right happens to some extent now but shouldn't 'in theory'. Maybe it's a don't ask don't tell. I think Cheney blew the cover…

> compartmentalizing the information away from the president as well which you are right happens to some extent now

This is nothing new, and has been happening since at least the 1940s, to multiple administrations from both parties. Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, Nixon, Reagan...and that's just some of the instances which were publicly documented.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#46

Post by nirav72 »

pixl97 wrote: post #37
mjr00 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A great example of this is here: https://marshallbrain.com/manna1 This is a piece of science fiction and has its own (inaccurate, IMO) view on how minimum wage McDonald's employees would react to a robot manager. Extrapolating this to real life is naive at best.

>Extrapolating this to real life is naive at best. Why, it's as much of a view of our past adherence to technology without thinking as a well as a view of the future. "Computer says no" is a saying for a reason.

>"Computer says no" is a saying for a reason.

Current LLMs rarely or seldom say no. Unless, they're specifically configured to block out certain types of requests.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#47

Post by kekqqq »

alexpotato wrote: post #29

You sometimes hear people say "I mean, we can't just give an AI a bunch of money/important decisions and expect it to do ok" but this is already happening and has been for years. Examples: - Algorithmic trading: I once embedded on an Options trading desk. The head of desk mentioned that he didn't really know what the PnL was during trading hours b/c the swings were so big that only the computer algos knew if the deci…

I must say that the book is unrealistic, but it makes a good sci-fi story. Thanks, I read it just now in 80 min.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#48

Post by exsomet »

alexpotato wrote: post #41
pavel_lishin wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But none of those things are AI in the same sense that we use the term now, to refer to LLMs.

But those things were considered on the same level of current LLMs in the sense of "well, a computer might do part of my job but not ALL of it". No, algorithmic trading didn't replace everything a trader did but it most certainly replaced large parts of the workload and made it much faster and horizontally scalable.

The two key differences to me are infrastructure and specificity of purpose.

Autoland in plane requires a set of expensive, complex, and highly fine-tuned equipment to be installed on every runway in the world that enables it (which as a proportion is statistically not a majority of them).

And as to specificity, this system does exactly one thing - land a specific model of plane on a specific runway equipped with instrumentation configured a specific way.

The point being: it isn’t a magic wand. Any serious conversation of AI in these types of life or death situations has to recognize that without the corresponding investment in infrastructure and specificity of purpose, things like this blog post are essentially just science fiction. The fact that previous generations of technology considered autoland and algorithmic trading to be magic doesn’t really change anything about that.

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#49

Post by sifar »

unyttigfjelltol wrote: post #27
MengerSponge wrote: post #5

A COMPUTER CAN NEVER BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE THEREFORE A COMPUTER MUST NEVER MAKE A MANAGEMENT DECISION.

Computers are more accountable. You just pull the plug, wipe the system. Executives, in contrast, require option strike resets and golden parachutes, no accountability. Neither will tell you they erred or experience contrition, so at a moral level there may well be some equivalency. :D

>> Computers are more accountable. You just pull the plug, wipe the system.

I think you are anthropomorphizing here. How does a computer feel when unplugged ? How would a computer take responsibility for its' actions ?

Re: OracleGPT: Thought Experiment on an AI Powered Executive

#50

Post by Guvante »

alexpotato wrote: post #29

You sometimes hear people say "I mean, we can't just give an AI a bunch of money/important decisions and expect it to do ok" but this is already happening and has been for years. Examples: - Algorithmic trading: I once embedded on an Options trading desk. The head of desk mentioned that he didn't really know what the PnL was during trading hours b/c the swings were so big that only the computer algos knew if the deci…

You gave examples of feedback loops.

We know very well how to train computers to handle those effectively.

Anything without quick feedback is much more difficult to do this way.

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