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IP Addresses Through 2025

potaroo.net

41–50 of 158 posts

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#41

The collapse in IPv4 transfer prices is what caught my eye here, dropping from a ~$55 peak in 2021 to a mean of $22 in early 2026 (figure 12). This validates my hypothesis that the run-up in 2020–2022 was an artificial scarcity bubble driven largely by hyperscalers. AWS was right up there stockpiling before they shifted their pricing model. Once AWS introduced the hourly charge for public IPv4 addresses (effectively…

As someone with a background in electronics who doesn't manage any internet-connected equipment but has multiple embedded devices connected to a WAN, I'm glad that IPv4 still seems to have a bit of life left in it.

When IPv6 was developed, over 30 years ago, connecting everything to the internet seemed like a great idea. I know that IPv6 can be made secure, but I don't have the background or research time to learn how to do so, and the NAT-by-default of IPv4 effectively means that I get the benefit of a default-deny security strategy that makes it impossible to accidentally directly connect anything to the internet.

I'm hoping I can keep using IPv4 until IPv8 or IPv4.5 or whatever comes next is developed with the modern proliferation of cheap insecure IoT in mind.

For some background on why IoT products are so insecure:

Hardware manufacturers don't really comprehend the idea of updates, let alone timely of security patches. Hardware has to work on the day of release, so everything is documented and tested to verify it will work. I have hardware with a TCP/IP stack that was released 20 years, (https://docs.wiznet.io/Product/Chip/Ethernet/W5500) and doesn't have a single errata published, despite widespread use. This is expected for every single component, for even the smallest 1-cent transistor, which has dozens of guaranteed performance characteristics laid out over several pages of documentation (https://en.mot-mos.com/vancheerfile/files/pdf/MOT2302B2.pdf).

When manufacturers venture into a product that runs software, they don't realize that for a given complexity, working through undocumented or, worse yet, incorrectly documented APIs takes more time than the equivalent hardware development and documentation. I've worked on multiple projects where software bugs were fixed with hardware workarounds, because it's faster, cheaper, and easier to develop, test, document, retool, and add a few cents of bill-of-materials cost per product, than to get reliable output from the already-written library that's supposed to provide the functionality.

The hardware TCP/IP stack that I linked to was developed at a time when it was the cheapest way to connect a low-power embedded system to a network. Modern low-power embedded systems have multiple cores running at hundreds to thousands of MIPS making the resources to run a softtware TCP/IP stack trivial, but the product still sells well, because when security is an absolute must, the hardware development and maintenance cost for the functionality is still cheaper than through software, even when there's no marginal cost to run the software.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#42

This closes on a bit of a downer: "As the Internet continues to evolve, it is no longer the technically innovative challenger pitted against venerable incumbents in the forms of the traditional industries of telephony, print newspapers, television entertainment and social interaction. The Internet is now the established norm. The days when the Internet was touted as a poster child of disruption in a deregulated space…

If you think the time that a given social network spends at the top is long now, wait until there's a "regulatory and governance framework" knocking out most newcomers.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#43
post #20
post #11

The country code GB in some of the tables should show the source economy being Great Britain right? Am I misunderstanding the table?

That looks weird. I am guessing that someone knows about the mismatch between ccTLDs (where the UK is .uk) and ISO codes (where the UK is GB and Ukraine is UA) and tried to correct something and got it wrong. its correct in other tables.

.uk being the TLD, and .gb being the ISO 3166-1 alpha-2 code is a quirk of history that comes with .uk being on the internet very early.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#44
post #36

It always sends me to sleep when IP enthusiasts lament the lack of adoption for IPv6. It's obvious to anyone that looks at the two formats that any kind of hacky workaround like NAT gateways will be preferable indefinitely to actually adopting the monstrosity that is IPv6.

NAT is the monstrosity, not IPv6.

But has the nice side-effect of working as a firewall, before traffic gets to you.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#45
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NAT is the monstrosity, not IPv6.

But has the nice side-effect of working as a firewall, before traffic gets to you.

No, it does not. Always use a firewall if you need a firewall. NAT is not a replacement for it.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#46

The collapse in IPv4 transfer prices is what caught my eye here, dropping from a ~$55 peak in 2021 to a mean of $22 in early 2026 (figure 12). This validates my hypothesis that the run-up in 2020–2022 was an artificial scarcity bubble driven largely by hyperscalers. AWS was right up there stockpiling before they shifted their pricing model. Once AWS introduced the hourly charge for public IPv4 addresses (effectively…

As someone with a background in electronics who doesn't manage any internet-connected equipment but has multiple embedded devices connected to a WAN, I'm glad that IPv4 still seems to have a bit of life left in it. When IPv6 was developed, over 30 years ago, connecting everything to the internet seemed like a great idea. I know that IPv6 can be made secure, but I don't have the background or research time to learn ho…

> the NAT-by-default of IPv4

IPv4 is not NAT-by-default. The reality of the world we live in today is that most home networks have a NAT, because you need multiple devices behind a single IP.

That said, I agree: it's quite unknowable how many services I've turned on on local machines with the expectation that a router firewall sat between me and potential clients.

But that doesn't go away with IPv6 - the NAT does, the router doesn't, and the firewall shouldn't either. For example, the default UniFi firewall rules for IPv6 are: 1. Allow Established/Related Traffic (outbound return traffic), 2. Block Invalid Traffic, 3. Block All Other Traffic

You must explicitly open a firewall rule for inbound IPv6 traffic. NAT is not the firewall.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#47

Really need governments to start pushing harder on IPv6 adoption. We need sticks, not just carrots. My favorite is chaos engineering forced IPv4 downtime.

In the US, I really want the FCC to mandate that an ISP provides IPv6 connectivity in order to meet the criteria to be considered broadband (and access the subsidies related to that). Don't even care if the functionality is off by default / you have to call and agree the routing may be sub-optimal, whatever. I currently use HE tunnels but on top of additional latency, the HE Cogent peering dispute still makes it difficult to access services over IPv6.

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#49

The collapse in IPv4 transfer prices is what caught my eye here, dropping from a ~$55 peak in 2021 to a mean of $22 in early 2026 (figure 12). This validates my hypothesis that the run-up in 2020–2022 was an artificial scarcity bubble driven largely by hyperscalers. AWS was right up there stockpiling before they shifted their pricing model. Once AWS introduced the hourly charge for public IPv4 addresses (effectively…

When AWS rolled out plans to start charging for IPv4 addresses: https://aws.amazon.com/blogs/aws/new-aws-public-ipv4-address... "As you may know, IPv4 addresses are an increasingly scarce resource and the cost to acquire a single public IPv4 address has risen more than 300% over the past 5 years. This change reflects our own costs and is also intended to encourage you to be a bit more frugal with your use of public I…

What disgusted you about it? I'm out of the loop

Re: IP Addresses Through 2025

#50
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What holds them back though? Even my shitty self-hosted website on a not-so-known VPS supports IPv6.

It provides no benefit, so even the smallest amount of added complexity or additional engineering effort required isn't worthwhile.

I did not have to put any additional engineering effort into it though.
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