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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#41

Post by master_crab »

keiferski wrote: post #24

I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence: "Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_... Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this…

This seems like the contrarian argument to libertarianism. A libertarian might claim it is orthogonal to it in theory, but in practice it is very much relevant to a “break all the walls down” ideology.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#42

Post by BurningFrog »

keiferski wrote: post #24

I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence: "Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_... Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this…

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#43

Post by CodingJeebus »

keiferski wrote: post #24

I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence: "Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_... Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this…

> Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this time, for some vague unclear reason.

Moneyed interests saw a business opportunity, simple as that. Economic investment is becoming highly concentrated towards high-growth, high-risk opportunities and gambling has long thrived in the black market while staying current with technology.

> except in the value that acquiring money by any means necessary is a good thing.

And this will only become more true as the economy continues to worsen. Economic downturns and market collapses favor the elite.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#44

Post by keiferski »

BurningFrog wrote: post #42
keiferski wrote: post #24

I’m increasingly convinced that the single most important concept to understand in the 21st century is Chesterton’s Fence: "Chesterton's fence" is the principle that reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G._K._Chesterton#Chesterton's_... Gambling isn’t a new problem, but apparently we thought it would turn out differently this…

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#45

Post by stickfigure »

dh2022 wrote: post #31
microtonal wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, once it's on television, it is similar to polling, which can influence elections because people like to vote for the winner. However, in this case it's even worse, because someone with deep pockets can influence the predictions.

But polling is still scientific and harder to manipulate than the betting markets. All of this is covered in th article. You should read it-it is a good article.

The solution is baked into the problem. If prediction markets become generally embraced by the public (mentioning them on CNN is part of that evolution) then they will be much harder to manipulate. Size matters.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#46

Post by protonbob »

keiferski wrote: post #44
BurningFrog wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

Amoral by what standard? That’s where the conservatism comes in.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#47

Post by keiferski »

protonbob wrote: post #46
keiferski wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

Amoral by what standard? That’s where the conservatism comes in.

Amoral, not immoral.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#50

Post by kelipso »

keiferski wrote: post #44
BurningFrog wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe, like myself, you're just aging into being a bit of a conservative.

Eh, I don’t think not wanting gambling and amoral behavior to consume society makes me a conservative in any real sense of the word. More just common sense pragmatism, is how I’d put it.

The Chesterton’s Fence argument is an argument against progressive social changes, no?
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