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You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

geohot.github.io

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Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#41

Post by raverbashing »

Sometimes people just need to touch (literal) grass

No gpt18Pro won't cost $1Bi dollars. The buck (or the bubble) will stop somewhere.

I'd be more worried for the people making trades run 1ms faster, they literally create no value to the world that is not something their own peers believe it

There are billions of people not knowing and not caring about what is chatgpt and while it might hit them hard, humans are more flexible and less impressionable than most people think (I mean, some people think it's the other way as well and they might be right in some situations)

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#42

Post by MattGaiser »

mmaunder wrote: post #19

The premise is economically incoherent because labor is not a single task category that technology can delete. It is the input that continuously reconstitutes itself around whatever remains scarce, valuable and socially demanded as productivity rises. This is the lump of labor fallacy- the belief that there’s a fixed amount of economically valuable work that technology and capital can eliminate through automation or…

> It is the input that continuously reconstitutes itself around whatever remains scarce, valuable and socially demanded as productivity rises.

In general, yes. For many groups, no.

It assumes that there is something of value for them to do and as shown by masses of long term unemployed in many areas, that is not always the case.

For example, people on the autism spectrum and with disabilities have persistently high unemployment. Because of various limitations, there is nothing for them to do in many cases. The market should have corrected this (especially over the long term) if reconstitution was consistently possible.

If AI makes all humans seem limited in a similar fashion, the idea of labour reconstitution falls apart.

There is also a large portion of the population on social assistance so while there are things they can do, the market value of what they can do is often well below their needs.

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#43

Post by duskdozer »

vaughands wrote: post #26
kaliqt wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It posits that the tools at their disposal will be far more powerful and wide reaching than just Gmail or even modern social networks. The good ol' AGI and then ASI singularity everyone likes to talk about. To be fair, it is possible.

It's vogue on HN to sometimes criticize critically so I want to try and be as constructive as possible: I work for one of these companies. I also have pay bills to pay. I'd like to understand what a real, good alternative is. Frontier labs such as Google DeepMind are not just going to shutter their doors because 10% of the peons dropped their jobs. I believe, at least, that we should be demanding political accountabi…

>Frontier labs such as Google DeepMind are not just going to shutter their doors because 10% of the peons dropped their jobs.

What about 20%? 50%? 90%? 100%?

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#44

Post by bananaflag »

phyzix5761 wrote: post #34

Honest question, if large portions of labor are automated or marginalized who ultimately buys the goods and services that companies produce? Markets depend on consumers having purchasing power. It seems economically rational to keep the average worker making just enough to afford goods and services over the long term. We can see this logic reflected at times in business history. Ford paid workers double the daily wag…

> who ultimately buys the goods and services that companies produce?

The only goods that will be produced will be the one that machines will need for their survival or for whatever unfathomable goals they will have. Human goods will only be produced as long as human labour still has some value.

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#45

Post by breppp »

fnoef wrote: post #7
d1sxeyes wrote: post #3

Hard to take seriously from a guy who has Facebook, Google, and Twitter on his CV.

I noticed an interesting pattern. People who “made it” usually by working high paying jobs for the neofeudal lords, suddenly gain moral compass and tell the rest of us to not work for said neofeudal lords, because “money is not important”, and apparently you can buy a place to live or food to feed your family simply by having principles.

it's simply the principle of fuck you money

that's why they are also more egocentric, racist, etc. When people do not feel the threat of society it is easier to have opinions that verge out of the norm or could restrict further employment (and also opinions that are wrongfully or rightfully policed in society)

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#46

Post by mitthrowaway2 »

mmaunder wrote: post #19

The premise is economically incoherent because labor is not a single task category that technology can delete. It is the input that continuously reconstitutes itself around whatever remains scarce, valuable and socially demanded as productivity rises. This is the lump of labor fallacy- the belief that there’s a fixed amount of economically valuable work that technology and capital can eliminate through automation or…

I don't know about your labor, but as far as my labor goes, there are basically only three things I am capable of doing: manual labor with my hands and legs, mental labor with my mind, and selling personal charm with my handsome face.

If you can perform all the same jobs I can for a penny a day, and food and rent cost a dollar a day, I'll have a hard time earning enough to remain fed and housed.

Until now, I've always been competing against other flesh-and-blood humans who needed to eat and pay rent, so I've never had to worry about the labor price floor too much.

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#47

Post by petesergeant »

phyzix5761 wrote: post #34

Honest question, if large portions of labor are automated or marginalized who ultimately buys the goods and services that companies produce? Markets depend on consumers having purchasing power. It seems economically rational to keep the average worker making just enough to afford goods and services over the long term. We can see this logic reflected at times in business history. Ford paid workers double the daily wag…

> who ultimately buys the goods and services that companies produce?

You don’t need anyone to buy them if you already have all the capital. You sell good and services to make more capital, but if you’ve got enough capital to provide all your needs, you don’t need anyone buyers.

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#48

Post by bloak »

phyzix5761 wrote: post #34

Honest question, if large portions of labor are automated or marginalized who ultimately buys the goods and services that companies produce? Markets depend on consumers having purchasing power. It seems economically rational to keep the average worker making just enough to afford goods and services over the long term. We can see this logic reflected at times in business history. Ford paid workers double the daily wag…

But why does Costco pay more than Walmart rather than the other way around? (I don't know much about either company.)

Re: You have three minutes to escape the perpetual underclass

#50

Post by petesergeant »

XorNot wrote: post #25
pu_pe wrote: post #9

This is a real threat that is not discussed enough. If labor could be completely automated, then the value and political power of workers tends to zero.

I feel like the people who post this sentiment have never done any plumbing, electrical wiring or really just any sort of actual creative manual labor. Show me the robot that can plumb a new sink in, or brick up an old doorway... Because I'd really like to buy it, those things are hard and time consuming!

Right, like programming
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