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Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

economist.com

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Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#41

Post by djtango »

baxtr wrote: post #34
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

Simpson's paradox does allow for the possibility that nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water and material wealth has improved in the aggregate while it getting worse for subpopulations.

A lot of people in the world are angry and one of the things that fuels this anger is the "gaslighting" that the data shows their lives are better while their lived reality is the opposite.

Don't forget that Millennials are the first generation to be poorer than their parents in a long time...

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#42

Post by guerrilla »

baxtr wrote: post #34
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

It's definitely not the best we have though. People have created all kinds of metrics which measured things in better ways more relevant to our human goals. It's an entire genre of publication in economics and some of them are very popular. It's a choice to ignore them.

Also, see what djtango said. It's not that simple.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#43

Post by zmgsabst »

djtango wrote: post #41
baxtr wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

Simpson's paradox does allow for the possibility that nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water and material wealth has improved in the aggregate while it getting worse for subpopulations. A lot of people in the world are angry and one of the things that fuels this anger is the "gaslighting" that the data shows their lives are better while their lived reality is the opposite. Don't forget that Millennials are the f…

Millennials are 30-45, roughly.

There’s now a large segment (and several generations) of society for whom the system has never worked, even if the growth of retirement accounts masks the loss of wealth and well-being.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#44

Post by torginus »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #27
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

It is an indicator and it's not totally non-meaningful. But GDP growth, when it's at the price of increasing the public debt and inflation, is no real growth. Instead of looking at the US, let's look at what used to be a relevant ally... In the eurozone, for example, politicians are hiding the lack of growth behind a growing mountain of public debt and the GDP growth ain't even beating inflation since the 2008 crisis…

I don't know - GDP has a few counter intuitive cases.

One example is when the same stuff gets more expensive. If I have something, like a loaf of bread, a house, a smartphone all of them the exact same get more expensive, GDP increases if demand doesn't change (let's say because its inflexible).

You could argue this is due to some increased foreign demand for said product and the price increase legit represents increased economic output.

But in the case of tariffs for example, we know that's not the case - stuff became more expensive because of levied taxes. No new stuff got produced, no foreigners are buying up this stuff, demand likely decreased for said product, yet the GDP contribution increased.

Another very typical example are things with inflexible supply, such as housing, where due to the increased volume of money, the exact same house now costs more. But since transactions still happen, that means the economy got better, right?

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#45

Post by wewxjfq »

BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

> Too much and for too long, we seemed to have surrendered personal excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our Gross National Product, now, is over $800 billion dollars a year, but that Gross National Product - if we judge the United States of America by that - that Gross National Product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. It counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children. Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And it can tell us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans.

Robert F. Kennedy, Remarks at the University of Kansas, March 18, 1968

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#46

Post by boxed »

guerrilla wrote: post #42
baxtr wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

It's definitely not the best we have though. People have created all kinds of metrics which measured things in better ways more relevant to our human goals. It's an entire genre of publication in economics and some of them are very popular. It's a choice to ignore them. Also, see what djtango said. It's not that simple.

It's the best that has been used by a society that didn't later collapse though.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#47

Post by lnsru »

baxtr wrote: post #34
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

The question is where. Couple decades ago rent in Munich was like 3x lower. While salaries were insignificantly lower with overall lower living cost.

Couple decades ago Germany had electronics industry. Now it’s gone. More industries are following.

Couple decades ago there were rather isolated Yugoslav Wars. Now it’s introduction into WW3 with active war in Ukraine and hybrid attacks everywhere in Europe.

It depends heavily on location. Indian colleague has completely different world view and is proud how India is progressing.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#48

Post by mikelitoris »

baxtr wrote: post #34
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

I think it’s not perfect but probably the best we have. People forgot or simply don’t realize how much worse life was just a couple of decades ago (in terms of nutrition, access to knowledge, clean water, material wealth).

All of those except for access to knowledge were better in the U.S. 20-30 years ago even though GDP per capita "grew" even in real terms.

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#49

Post by justonceokay »

zmgsabst wrote: post #24

Populism is best understood as the general public asserting elites have “broken the deal” that legitimizes their rule — and the public withdrawing their assent from the regime. They are correct that the technocratic managerialists on the past century have failed — and failed in a way damaging to the state/nation. (For US and EU at least.) In so far as we’re all discussing that (and have been for several years), they’…

Of course populism is a wonderful tool for “elites” to abuse power, so maybe the story is more complicated

Re: Do not mistake a resilient global economy for populist success

#50

Post by toenail »

EZ-E wrote: post #25
BrenBarn wrote: post #9

Do not mistake economic indicators such as GDP or "growth" for meaningful measures of economic health.

What is a good measure of meaningful growth? Genuinely asking. I imagine all measures have pros and cons.

- Time to affordability ratios (Hours of work for food, energy, housing etc)

- Intergenerational social mobility trend

Not doing great on either.

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