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There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

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Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#41

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Indeed. The DPRK was right from the start. They always were.

For the longest time I thought they'd gone too far, but now we're the clowns putting on a show.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#42
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO the rest of the world isn't asleep. Denmark's prime minister said the same as you, for example. US just got roasted at UN by inter alia, France, with ~20 countries either speaking the same or asking to speak on it. That's just from 30s with front page of nytimes.com.

That just sounds like more 'strongly worded letters' which never go anywhere and they never do anything about. It's over for the EU. They rested on their laurels for too long and cowardice rotted them from the inside. I don't think Denmark will put even a smidge of resistance up. Trump is going to bark some orders, boots are going to hit the ground and it's fait accompli .

What does action (i.e. not-strongly-worded-letters, i.e. not words) look like?

Capture Trump?

Invade the US?

The idea the EU is some bureaucratic hellhole incapable of anything is really odd and nigh-universal - I'm used to righties adopting it from Brexit & antipathy for social demoracy, but I'm not used to see it as a despondent wailing from people otherwise sympathetic to it.

Note no one even mentioned the EU - it's so universal a reaction to "US is acting bad" that it came out of nowhere. Not to pick on you: when I was first replying, I also replied as if it was the EU! Had to go back and read the comment I was replying to and corrected myself before posting.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#43
post #12

Alternative theory: Part of the operation caused power outages or disrupted some connections, the BGP anomalies were a result of that. The data would make that more likely, because deliberately adding a longer route doesn't achieve much. It's not usually going to get any traffic.

The BGP anomalies were 24-hours~ before the power outage, so I'm not sure I follow what you're arguing.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#44

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

If having nuclear weapons did anything at all to prevent cyber attacks, the US would not be getting constantly victimized by cyber attacks.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#45
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That just sounds like more 'strongly worded letters' which never go anywhere and they never do anything about. It's over for the EU. They rested on their laurels for too long and cowardice rotted them from the inside. I don't think Denmark will put even a smidge of resistance up. Trump is going to bark some orders, boots are going to hit the ground and it's fait accompli .

What does action (i.e. not-strongly-worded-letters, i.e. not words) look like? Capture Trump? Invade the US? The idea the EU is some bureaucratic hellhole incapable of anything is really odd and nigh-universal - I'm used to righties adopting it from Brexit & antipathy for social demoracy, but I'm not used to see it as a despondent wailing from people otherwise sympathetic to it. Note no one even mentioned the EU - it…

Action probably looks like crash-starting multiple nuclear weapons programs. With or without the help of the british/french. Probably with.

I'd imagine programs from: the Nordics and Poland+Baltics. Maybe Germany, probably not.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#46

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

Counterpoint is that Ukraine, Qaddafi, and Assad already demonstrated the significance of maintaining certain capabilities. Vzla didn't have those capabilities before, much less publicly depreciate them.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#47
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not from the cloudflare dashboard, you can zoom out. The night of the attack doesnt even really stand out as abnormal when zooming out that far.

So you're saying I can't set an alert for these conditions and use the timing to place a quick bet on the geopolitical polymarket du-jour? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-polymarket-user-made-more...

Yeah, I was thinking it definitely needs to be correlated to geopolitical tensions in some way. Polymarket data might be helpful in this case- and provides incentives for putting this kind of data together.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s be honest, that was a crazy operation. I wonder whether they really secured all chances of success, or just winged it with chances of not depositing the leader, and him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA. While on their way out, if the USA could set everything back to IPv6, that would be nice.

> While on their way out, if the USA could set everything back to IPv6, that would be nice. You actually think the US would leave things better than they found them?

Only when it's oil infrastructure.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#49

I assume that nuclear capability would rule out a target from this kind of snatch operation, and that this event will add pressure to proliferate.

If having nuclear weapons did anything at all to prevent cyber attacks, the US would not be getting constantly victimized by cyber attacks.

I think "this kind of operation" refers to the entire "we bombed your capital and stole your President" thing, not just the cyber component of it.

It seems extraordinarily unlikely we'd have attempted such a thing if Venezuela had nukes.

Re: There were BGP anomalies during the Venezuela blackout

#50

I wonder what kind of capabilities the US army didn't use during this operation.

Let’s be honest, that was a crazy operation. I wonder whether they really secured all chances of success, or just winged it with chances of not depositing the leader, and him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA. While on their way out, if the USA could set everything back to IPv6, that would be nice.

> him being able to summon his diplomatic relations into 50 countries declaring war to the USA.

As if. Dictators only do things that benefit themselves, and deciding to attack the US is suicide and/or world ending.

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