Tesla sales fall for the second year in a row • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla sales fall for the second year in a row

#41

Post by stackghost » Sat, Jan 03, 2026, 3:58 AM UTC

valianteffort wrote: post #40

stackghost wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If these bets don't pay off, Tesla needs a fallback Good news! No matter what Tesla does, Musk's orbiters will tell you that Tesla isn't a company, it's actually a bet on .

Well it kind of is. Tesla are not coy about their plans of moving away from selling consumers personal vehicles. If you think cybercab can eat any significant percentage of Uber/Lyfts lunch there is value. It takes a lot of hubris to throw away ostensibly worldwide EV dominance. And selling Americans on giving up car/independence culture when compared with Europe or Asia will be tough. They will undoubtedly crush in…

>It takes a lot of hubris to throw away ostensibly worldwide EV dominance.

This was never a possibility to begin with and only Musk cultists thought it was.

Re: Tesla sales fall for the second year in a row

#42

Post by mocana » Sat, Jan 03, 2026, 2:41 PM UTC

beardyw wrote: post #14

mocana wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have arrested some. Have heard of Teslas getting keyed too. My sense is that Elon being less in the spotlight recently has allowed some of the anger he provoked to cool off. But the brand damage, I am afraid, is permanent. https://www.wcvb.com/article/tesla-vandalism-incidents-conti... https://youtu.be/NpFpfOemGR0?si=eMK0rMeRrv-gIKCT

> But the brand damage, I am afraid, is permanent Afraid? Are you somehow invested in Tesla?

I am unhappy about Tesla's slide. My car is indeed worth less as there uncertainty about the company's ability to provide parts and services long term. More importantly, Tesla was an American company making cars in the U.S. and leading the world in production and technology of EVs. Musk has stupidly pissed away Tesla's position and ceded it to Chinese companies. Perhaps this sounds overly nationalistic, but leading in one of the key industries of the coming decades in the U.S. would have been good for the country.

Re: Tesla sales fall for the second year in a row

#43

Post by ben_w » Sat, Jan 03, 2026, 2:51 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #38

ben_w wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't ULA launch something like 75-90 tons to orbit last year, vs. 2400 tons for SpaceX? So SpaceX would be worth 27x just from payload even if the profit margin was the same, even if they weren't the cheapest launch vehicle and therefore a natural provider for all the mega-constellations that want to compete with Starlink in coming years, and even if they didn't have this plausible (allbeit definitely work-in-progr…

Somewhat to your chagrin, I think, I agree that 27X is a reasonable multiple. But I'm a generous guy I'd give them 50X. Do the math.

No chargrin.

All Musk's valuations are based on his visions for what could be. It's just that for SpaceX, unlike for X and Tesla, "what could be" still seems plausible.

For Tesla… there is the argument that while "what could be" is very unlikely, if he pulls it off then it is also very valuable. But I not only don't think he can pull it off at all, even if he could don't think he will have market dominance sufficient to justify the price.

SpaceX… may have similar risks, depending IMO more on Chinese companies thinking "Great idea, let's do that but better" than e.g. European companies doing that. But even with that, 27x for current launches, and an additional 3x combined with that for other constellations plausibly gets them to around x80 even if Starship continues to not be reusable.

Starship is a big question mark for me. Assume it works: Would it be cheap enough to induce demand? Dunno. Not implausible, but I really don't know, and that is needed to get up to 700x.

Re: Tesla sales fall for the second year in a row

#44

Post by Zigurd » Sat, Jan 03, 2026, 2:57 PM UTC

Zigurd wrote: post #38

ben_w wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Didn't ULA launch something like 75-90 tons to orbit last year, vs. 2400 tons for SpaceX? So SpaceX would be worth 27x just from payload even if the profit margin was the same, even if they weren't the cheapest launch vehicle and therefore a natural provider for all the mega-constellations that want to compete with Starlink in coming years, and even if they didn't have this plausible (allbeit definitely work-in-progr…

Somewhat to your chagrin, I think, I agree that 27X is a reasonable multiple. But I'm a generous guy I'd give them 50X. Do the math.

Sure. 80X. I'd even agree to that. Which is a bit over 10% of what Elon thinks SpaceX is worth.

Re: Tesla sales fall for the second year in a row

#45

Post by cmxch » Sat, Jan 03, 2026, 5:47 PM UTC

iwontberude wrote: post #15

TylerLives wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who is vandalizing the cars? Why doesn't police arrest them?

The police are underfunded and understaffed since Covid here in Silicon Valley. They won’t pursue your vandalism cases if they are just the value of a car.

Yet they probably would jump on the person that dared to defend themselves from the vandal.