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S&P500 Priced in Gold

pricedingold.com

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Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#41

Post by cykros »

foxglacier wrote: post #24

I sometimes wonder if we should be measuring money in some other unit besides dollar/etc. to reveal inflation. We could report bank balances and wages that way so the effect of inflation is obvious instead of being a trick to silently steal money off people. But it's tricky because there's no natural measure of inflation. Gold seems like a good idea in a way but I don't understand enough to know.

The issue is that broad money isn't money. It's credit. And measuring credit is like measuring both velocity and position at the same time.

The Fed tried to measure dollar supply globally for decades before giving up as they finally got their heads around how the Eurodollar network works, and they've kept somewhat quiet about the fact that they're just not actually at the center of it.

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#42

Post by hdgvhicv »

vessenes wrote: post #27
sebmellen wrote: post #7

This is a very interesting chart but I can't figure out if it takes compounding into account or not.

It’s just s&p 500 index value divided by gold to get a “gold native” number. The compounding represented here would be the growth of the companies that has been “compounded” as a result of their internal investment

It’s ignoring S&P dividends which add a significant amount.

S&P on its own is up 20 fold since 1990

SP500TR Is up 40 fold.

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#43

Post by alecco »

aurareturn wrote: post #37
maerF0x0 wrote: post #33

It's tricky because it's unclear if the S&P500 will halve (Market pessimism), or if Gold price will double (currency devaluation)... I need to see both of them priced in loaves of bread.

If currency devalue, S&P500 would go up since equities will hold value better than cash.

It's way more complex. Technology is driving deflation even for equities as extraction and refinement becomes cheaper.

But the worst is mass migration an the bulge of the world population pyramid entering working age [1]. Labor costs down for corporations and our wages evaporate. Compound with AI and automation.

I think the future is very unpredictable.

[1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2025/

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#44

Post by OutOfHere »

bot403 wrote: post #30
OutOfHere wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storing gold costs nothing but a little space which isn't an issue given how compact it is.

Oh good. I have a spare spot in my front yard to place it. Or maybe I'll just set it down on my dining room table. Wait...I might want something more secure than that. And if I have a lot of gold I might need to pay people to protect it. These storage costs are going up.

[flagged]

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#46

Post by ekianjo »

ajross wrote: post #31
rjbwork wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately Goodhart's law has rendered official inflation measures borderline useless, as anyone who has been shopping for food for the last decade can tell you.

Taking your example in good faith: Gold is four times as expensive today as it was at this time in 2015. Has food seen a 4x increase? No, right? So gold is volatile on a level way beyond inflation. QED. Are CPI measurements difficult? Sure. It takes a bunch of expert eggheads and a lot of shouting to come to consensus. Still better than trusting some kind of magical commodity market to tell you.

> Gold is four times as expensive today as it was at this time in 2015

easy to explain. Gold has a supply constraint. More demand causes prices to rise. When you have a currency following a heavy inflationary trend, people buy Gold, so the price of Gold goes up.

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#47

Post by maerF0x0 »

alecco wrote: post #43
aurareturn wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If currency devalue, S&P500 would go up since equities will hold value better than cash.

It's way more complex. Technology is driving deflation even for equities as extraction and refinement becomes cheaper. But the worst is mass migration an the bulge of the world population pyramid entering working age [1]. Labor costs down for corporations and our wages evaporate. Compound with AI and automation. I think the future is very unpredictable. [1] https://www.populationpyramid.net/world/2025/

I'm not sure how the cycle continues though if we dont have jobs, the companies do not have buyers?

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#48

Post by vessenes »

hdgvhicv wrote: post #42
vessenes wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s just s&p 500 index value divided by gold to get a “gold native” number. The compounding represented here would be the growth of the companies that has been “compounded” as a result of their internal investment

It’s ignoring S&P dividends which add a significant amount. S&P on its own is up 20 fold since 1990 SP500TR Is up 40 fold.

I guess if your purpose of the site is to make yourself feel good about gold they chose the proper index. Agreed if you want to compare the decidedly non-dividending gold as an asset class TR makes sense.

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#49

Post by ajross »

ekianjo wrote: post #46
ajross wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Taking your example in good faith: Gold is four times as expensive today as it was at this time in 2015. Has food seen a 4x increase? No, right? So gold is volatile on a level way beyond inflation. QED. Are CPI measurements difficult? Sure. It takes a bunch of expert eggheads and a lot of shouting to come to consensus. Still better than trusting some kind of magical commodity market to tell you.

> Gold is four times as expensive today as it was at this time in 2015 easy to explain. Gold has a supply constraint. More demand causes prices to rise. When you have a currency following a heavy inflationary trend, people buy Gold, so the price of Gold goes up.

People buying gold speculatively as an inflation hedge is exactly the opposite of gold being a source of stable value, though. Gold is "inflating" far, far faster than currency (edit to clarify: far faster than currency-valued goods; gold "interpreted as" a currency is deflating catastrophically), you just pointed it out!

There are a shocking number of gold-happy nerds on this site who are going to be shocked and horrified the next time it crashes (which is has, and will again). The nonsense the largely-partisan smarter-than-thou media you're watching is feeding you is nonsense, and at some point you're going to discover that via great suffering.

Re: S&P500 Priced in Gold

#50

Post by OutOfHere »

bot403 wrote: post #30
OutOfHere wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Storing gold costs nothing but a little space which isn't an issue given how compact it is.

Oh good. I have a spare spot in my front yard to place it. Or maybe I'll just set it down on my dining room table. Wait...I might want something more secure than that. And if I have a lot of gold I might need to pay people to protect it. These storage costs are going up.

Ridiculous. Gold takes very little space. No individual really has a lot of it where storage becomes a constraint. It is obvious when someone has an agenda against it.
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