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Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

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41–50 of 107 posts

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#41

Imagine a future where a resourceful computer will be unobtanium, because AI companies decided to outbid consumers. Your PC will be just powerful enough to work as a terminal, with all the heavy lifting done by cloud compute data centers. Every functionality be will subscription-based. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy.

That is the logical conclusion. The era of personal computers is coming to an end. It had a good run though.

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#42

Imagine a future where a resourceful computer will be unobtanium, because AI companies decided to outbid consumers. Your PC will be just powerful enough to work as a terminal, with all the heavy lifting done by cloud compute data centers. Every functionality be will subscription-based. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy.

“Heavy lifting” here being running 108 MB of JavaScript to render shopping cart of an online store, correct?

Or consuming 2 GB of RAM to have Teams running in the background doing nothing?

Yeah, if we got rid of that as a result of RAM shortages, that’d be great.

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#43

Article completely misses the true cause of the price increase - Sam Altman/OAI made a deal with Samsung and SK Hynix get 40% of their RAM wafer production for the 2026 period. This was economic warfare against OpenAI's competitors, and the competitors along with the data centers responded by buying up every bit of DDR5 in sight. This price increase was engineered. The deal was inked on October 1, 2025, and rumors of…

Right! Raw wafers, not even memory. I have seen no evidence that this move was anything but a means of taking product out of the global supply chain.

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#44
post #41

Imagine a future where a resourceful computer will be unobtanium, because AI companies decided to outbid consumers. Your PC will be just powerful enough to work as a terminal, with all the heavy lifting done by cloud compute data centers. Every functionality be will subscription-based. You'll own nothing and you'll be happy.

That is the logical conclusion. The era of personal computers is coming to an end. It had a good run though.

Luckily Beelinks are still cheap, work decently, and can run Linux/Windows, so if all someone needs is to browse the Internet and do basic stuff, honestly? They’re fine. We’ll see how long that lasts though.

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#45
"However, this is not just a cyclical shortage driven by a mismatch in supply and demand, but a potentially permanent, strategic reallocation of the world’s silicon wafer capacity. [...] This is a zero-sum game: every wafer allocated to an HBM stack for an Nvidia GPU is a wafer denied to the LPDDR5X module of a mid-range smartphone or the SSD of a consumer laptop."

I wonder if this will result in writing more memory-efficient software? The trend for the last couple of decades has been that nearly all consumer software outside of gaming has moved to browsers or browser-based runtimes like Electron. There's been a vicious cycle of heavier software -> more RAM -> heavier software but if this RAM shortage is permanent, the cycle can't continue.

Apple and Google seemed to be working on local AI models as well. Will they have to scale that back due to lack of RAM on the devices? Or perhaps they think users will pay the premium for more RAM if it means they get AI?

Or is this all a temporary problem due to OpenAI's buying something like 40% of the wafers?

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#46

Article completely misses the true cause of the price increase - Sam Altman/OAI made a deal with Samsung and SK Hynix get 40% of their RAM wafer production for the 2026 period. This was economic warfare against OpenAI's competitors, and the competitors along with the data centers responded by buying up every bit of DDR5 in sight. This price increase was engineered. The deal was inked on October 1, 2025, and rumors of…

Right! Raw wafers, not even memory. I have seen no evidence that this move was anything but a means of taking product out of the global supply chain.

That's correct and a good point I almost forgot about - they can't even utilize what they bought!

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#47
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the logical conclusion. The era of personal computers is coming to an end. It had a good run though.

Luckily Beelinks are still cheap, work decently, and can run Linux/Windows, so if all someone needs is to browse the Internet and do basic stuff, honestly? They’re fine. We’ll see how long that lasts though.

[deleted]

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#48
post #45

"However, this is not just a cyclical shortage driven by a mismatch in supply and demand, but a potentially permanent, strategic reallocation of the world’s silicon wafer capacity. [...] This is a zero-sum game: every wafer allocated to an HBM stack for an Nvidia GPU is a wafer denied to the LPDDR5X module of a mid-range smartphone or the SSD of a consumer laptop." I wonder if this will result in writing more memory-…

There's plenty of scope for local AI models to become more efficient, too. MoE doesn't need too much RAM: only the parameters for experts that are active at any given time truly need to be in memory, the rest can be in read-only storage and be fetched on demand. If you're doing CPU inference this can even be managed automatically by mmap, whereas loading params into VRAM must currently be managed as part of running an inference step. (This is where GPU drivers/shader languages/programming models could also see some improvement, TBH)

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#49
post #34

One of the things I’ve been hoping for every time a new EC2 instance comes out is for them to unpin the memory:core ratio a bit. I don’t expect they have enough r# and c# users to completely balance things out so what they’re really doing is selling people more CPUs to get the memory they need. It would be nice if it were creeping up generation to generation. But if this keeps up I fear the opposite.

The best way of "unpinning" those ratios for many ephemeral workloads is to use Lambda/FaaS, not EC2.

Re: Global Memory Shortage Crisis: Market Analysis

#50

Article completely misses the true cause of the price increase - Sam Altman/OAI made a deal with Samsung and SK Hynix get 40% of their RAM wafer production for the 2026 period. This was economic warfare against OpenAI's competitors, and the competitors along with the data centers responded by buying up every bit of DDR5 in sight. This price increase was engineered. The deal was inked on October 1, 2025, and rumors of…

Doesn't Apple routinely do the same thing? Reserve chip production for the leading-edge nodes, and sometimes enter into similar deals for other tech such as displays? I'm not seeing any evidence that this was intentional "warfare" on OpenAI's part: they're just making a high-stakes bet that they can ultimately find a better and higher-margin use for that raw DRAM than HNers' gaming battlestations, or whatever the next-best use was when they made that deal.
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