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The battle to stop clever people betting

economist.com

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Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#41

Post by mmcwilliams »

dangus wrote: post #10
Havoc wrote: post #3

I'd venture that actually smart people don't go near this at all because they know telling yourself "I'm better than others and won't get addicted"...all to chase a couple bucks is the height of folly. Polymarket has me intrigued though. Especially stuff like their geopolitics section...as a measure of how good one's read of the world is. Still gambling in disguise though

I imagine there’s lots of money to be made on fools in polymarket, like “Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025?” That topic had over a 10% “yes” chance in January. Betting no on that is better taking out a CD.

After the platform takes its cut the actual percentage is not as appealing.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#42

Post by blell »

m4ck_ wrote: post #26

I would love to see the gambling industry beaten back into whatever holes they slithered out of. If you want to gamble it should be in some smokey back room at a liquor store. I'm surprised the christian right isn't making more of a fuss about gambling, but I guess they're getting greased to look the other way.

Lately it feels like more and more people who are not religious invoke Christ to tell believers what they must do.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#43

Post by barnabee »

Havoc wrote: post #3

I'd venture that actually smart people don't go near this at all because they know telling yourself "I'm better than others and won't get addicted"...all to chase a couple bucks is the height of folly. Polymarket has me intrigued though. Especially stuff like their geopolitics section...as a measure of how good one's read of the world is. Still gambling in disguise though

I know people who profitably run algorithms on Betfair, etc.

Smart people will treat it like any other “trading” or “arbitrage” opportunity, given half a chance.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#44

Post by ekjhgkejhgk »

If you want to bet, you could do so in regulated markets like financial markets.

This isn't a smartass remark "stock market is gambling". I literally mean that the financial markets went through all this bullshit 100 years ago, and came up with rules to make them fairer. For example, you won't be blocked from the stock market just because you do really well.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#45

Post by apothegm »

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #19
Havoc wrote: post #3

I'd venture that actually smart people don't go near this at all because they know telling yourself "I'm better than others and won't get addicted"...all to chase a couple bucks is the height of folly. Polymarket has me intrigued though. Especially stuff like their geopolitics section...as a measure of how good one's read of the world is. Still gambling in disguise though

The analogue that people have of betting is, for some reason, drugs. Addiction is an inherent property of taking drugs. Gambling is not like this in any way. It is not inherently addictive, 99% of people who gamble have no issue with it. It isn't to chase a couple of bucks either. Billy Walter has made hundreds of millions. A recent court case leaked that Tony Bloom's syndicate was making £200m in profit per year. Th…

Ban fast food? No. Regulate it and find a way to re-internalize some of the externalities? Perhaps. The invisible hand is neither benevolent nor infallible.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#46

Post by billy99k »

blell wrote: post #42
m4ck_ wrote: post #26

I would love to see the gambling industry beaten back into whatever holes they slithered out of. If you want to gamble it should be in some smokey back room at a liquor store. I'm surprised the christian right isn't making more of a fuss about gambling, but I guess they're getting greased to look the other way.

Lately it feels like more and more people who are not religious invoke Christ to tell believers what they must do.

This is what many evil people do.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#47

Post by int32_64 »

As the middle class continues to shrink in the West the gambling crisis will only get worse.

It has to be understood by older people that for many young people the only way to afford a lifestyle previously achievable in many cities with a basic job is to win the lottery.

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#48

Post by istjohn »

Gambling disorder was the first behavioral addiction to be officially recognized alongside chemical dependencies; the DSM-5 reclassified gambling disorder from "impulse control disorder" to "substance-related and addictive disorders."

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#49

Post by shlant »

deadbabe wrote: post #37

Why wouldn’t you ban clever people? Isn’t the point to let all players have a fairly equal chance? Someone’s going to win the money regardless, so it’s not like you’re saving money. If the same data savvy people are just going to win most of the time, why would people bother playing? Ultimately you would not have enough players and the industry collapses. I don’t understand why this makes the casinos the bad guys.

> Isn’t the point to let all players have a fairly equal chance?

Do you genuinely think this is why clever players are banned?

> Someone’s going to win the money regardless, so it’s not like you’re saving money.

What? banning people who have a better edge vs. the house won't save money?

Re: The battle to stop clever people betting

#50

Post by skippyboxedhero »

skybrian wrote: post #27
skippyboxedhero wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The analogue that people have of betting is, for some reason, drugs. Addiction is an inherent property of taking drugs. Gambling is not like this in any way. It is not inherently addictive, 99% of people who gamble have no issue with it. It isn't to chase a couple of bucks either. Billy Walter has made hundreds of millions. A recent court case leaked that Tony Bloom's syndicate was making £200m in profit per year. Th…

While it’s true that many (most?) people won’t have a problem, a minority have their lives ruined as well as family members, and the risk of that is reason enough to regulate it. This isn’t all that different from alcohol.

Okay, but gambling is heavily regulated...so that isn't the discussion here. You believe that alcohol should be banned then?
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