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Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

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Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#41

Post by tptacek »

kmfrk wrote: post #25
sxcurry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think he has a leaning one way or the other - he tries to be unbiased, and arrive at data-driven conclusions. What have you seen from Nate that makes him seem a "biased liberal" to you? I'd be very interested to know. Also, we'll see in about a month how good his meta-analysis is.

I don't really see why it's wrong that Nate has political opinions. The alternative is Jim Lehrer who values his "objectivity" so much that he doesn't even vote at elections. Sometimes, facts favour liberals, sometimes they don't.

Who said it was wrong for Silver to have opinions?

The overrating of objectivity has been a hobbyhorse of Jack Shafer's for awhile, and he can be fun to read; here, for instance:

http://blogs.reuters.com/jackshafer/2011/09/20/media-bias-gi...

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#42

Post by MartinCron »

anamax wrote: post #36
derleth wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

> Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat? The correlation is with misunderstanding all three and coming to bogus conclusions. Let's take evolution. There are lots of folks, typically Democrats, who insist that it is fundamental to all of science. (Hint - that's clearly false. Disagree? How does evolution matter outside biol…

There are lots of folks, typically Democrats, who insist that it is fundamental to all of science

You can't, on the basis of zero real evidence, dismiss the theory that best fits the known facts, without causing harm to the understanding of the scientific method as a whole. So it is not that the one theory is so critical to all of science, but the act of throwing it out because it offends religious sensibilities is damaging.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#43

Post by MartinCron »

mtgx wrote: post #27
sxcurry wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think he has a leaning one way or the other - he tries to be unbiased, and arrive at data-driven conclusions. What have you seen from Nate that makes him seem a "biased liberal" to you? I'd be very interested to know. Also, we'll see in about a month how good his meta-analysis is.

Must be because "reality has a liberal bias".

I wonder if I am the only liberal who hates this phrase?

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#44

Post by tatsuke95 »

wilfra wrote: post #24
tatsuke95 wrote: post #16

Nate Silver came from the fantastic world of the statistical analysis of baseball, specifically Baseball Prospectus. You can check out his body of work here (some articles require a subscription): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/author/nate_silver/ His big contribution was a model used to predict player statistics. When he first started writing about politics, I assumed the name was a coincidence.

Actually he came from the fantastic World of poker :) He gravitated to Sabermetrics from there.

There you go. Dynamic guy. Almost like he enjoys numbers.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#45

Post by MaysonL »

anamax wrote: post #36
derleth wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

> Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat? The correlation is with misunderstanding all three and coming to bogus conclusions. Let's take evolution. There are lots of folks, typically Democrats, who insist that it is fundamental to all of science. (Hint - that's clearly false. Disagree? How does evolution matter outside biol…

So why are only 6% of scientists Republicans, when in Eisenhower's time it was 40%?

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#46

Post by paulgb »

seunosewa wrote: post #10

I'm lost. What are some of his latest predictions that came true?

From Wikipedia[1]:

> Silver's final 2008 presidential election forecast accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia (missing only the prediction for Indiana). As his model predicted, the races in Missouri and North Carolina were particularly close. He also correctly predicted the winners of every U.S. Senate race. The accuracy of his predictions won him further acclaim, including abroad,[49] and added to his reputation as a leading political prognosticator.[50]

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver#2008_U.S._elections

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#48

Post by Alex3917 »

wilfra wrote: post #20
andrewljohnson wrote: post #7

Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…

He is a biased liberal and reading any of his commentary should be viewed through that lens. He doesn't even make much of an effort to hide it, in 2008 on 538 he was basically rooting for Obama. However that doesn't mean his models are wrong. When they show that Republicans are going to win (or have improved), he states that just as clearly as when the same is true for Democrats.

"He is a biased liberal and reading any of his commentary should be viewed through that lens."

Are we reading the same blog? I've never seen him take sides on any issue.

Re: Nate Silver has made a career out of predicting things

#50

Post by joshuahedlund »

derleth wrote: post #8
andrewljohnson wrote: post #7

Republicans say Nate Silver is a biased liberal, and reading his blog this election cycle makes it seem that way to me even. But I would like to know - is there a Republican analog to Nate Silver? Someone who predicts 90% of the races at the end, does the meta-math, and has a computer model? If there is no Republican analog, can you possibly say Nate Silver is liberal or biased? Does using a computer model and math,…

Does following the scientific consensus on issues like anthropogenic global warming, evolution, and sex education make you a Democrat?

Yes, but only if you also ignore the scientific consensus on genetically modified food, vaccines, nuclear energy, and hydraulic fracking :)
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