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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#41

Post by AnimalMuppet »

Libidinalecon wrote: post #27
tomrod wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

K shaped economy with increasing expenditure means the wealthier increase their spending as a portion of the economy and at an absolute level. It is not interpreted as the polity doing well - if anything, it is cause for concern.

I don't know if it is just the wealthy either. The retired middle class boomers I know are completely outside the business cycle. While I don't think they have enough to really be considered wealthy, they have no mortgage payment, a social security check, a pension and most have a 401k. The business cycle will not change their spending one bit.

It may, a bit. If the 401k is in the stock market, and the stock market is down, their total visible money is down. That tends to decrease enthusiasm for spending.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#42

Post by venturecruelty »

jdiff wrote: post #23
rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.

I wonder if it has anything to do with all of the 10-200% taxes we've levied on random things.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#44

Post by SoftTalker »

jdiff wrote: post #23
rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.

Construction, trades, and basically physical-world stuff that AI cannot do are still hiring.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#45

Post by almosthere »

master_crab wrote: post #24
3Mathematicians wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg. If anything, in my opinion, this strengthens the k-shaped economic growth stat that the article mentions.

Yup, only the rich are powering this economy now. That bodes poorly for the country’s stability long term.

can also look at it as an opportunity to gather friends and start a small drywall company. Those are in demand, for example. The rich are building more buildings than ever. If you live in the bay area, you can very well see 300k / year if you keep yourself busy.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#46

Post by dudus »

programmertote wrote: post #34
chasd00 wrote: post #4

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish” Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

I postponed all of my CPG and miscellaneous purchases (think AA batteries, socks, winter pants, skin lotion, body wash, etc.) until Black Friday "sales". I also stocked up on stuff like Ramen. I did NOT buy anything special for myself (e.g., I really wanted Switch 2, but I think it's too overpriced and decided not to pull the trigger). I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices ros…

Same here. My big purchase for Black Friday last year was an OLED TV.

This year was prescription glasses.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#47

Post by aorloff »

jdiff wrote: post #23
rhinoceraptor wrote: post #20

From my experience, it's grim at the moment for software developer jobs. I got laid off in August and it's been rough. I'm in my early 30s so I can't compare it to 2008, but I've been laid off before and I've never seen it this bad.

It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.

I gotta tell you man, if you can find someone in charge at the backend of the Home Depot and let them hire you as a systems uptime troubleshooter you would easily make any salary you could name for them tenfold.

I at at a Home Depot like 10 times a week and let me tell you, they have a major systems problem that is making their operations look like a joke

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#48

Post by SoftTalker »

thinkingtoilet wrote: post #19
nrhrjrjrjtntbt wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Black friday is a datapoint. But maybe people are deferring purchases to these sale periods. What proportion of goods were luxury vs. not. Also poor people can get into debt they are still poor. Maybe they can afford a nintendo switch but not afford to raise a family.

The only things I bought on Black Friday were things I would normally have bought but just waited a few weeks/months to get.

Same among people I know. My MIL needed to replace some kitchen appliances and waited for BF sales.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#49

Post by 3eb7988a1663 »

jeffbee wrote: post #38
master_crab wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat. Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

You also have to adjust such things for population, which was up about .6% in August vs. last August, the latest data we have.

Last report I saw said US population was set to drop this year - first time in 250 years. With our demographic boomer bubble, continually dropping fertility, and anti-immigration stance, the trend is likely to continue.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#50

Post by bequanna »

venturecruelty wrote: post #42
jdiff wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's grim everywhere, for everything, all at once. I haven't been able to find work as a graphic designer, motion designer, web designer, web developer, software developer, and a large variety of retail jobs. Been on the job hunt since May, all I've been able to find is a part time position at The Home Depot.

I wonder if it has anything to do with all of the 10-200% taxes we've levied on random things.

Offshoring (India + LATAM) with a side of h1b.

Offshoring is by far the biggest culprit. Plenty of Jr/Mid roles hiring…but not US based.

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