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I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

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Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#41

Post by OutOfHere »

danielscrubs wrote: post #15
neffy wrote: post #8

If they optimize though - and this is coming at some point - local AI becomes possible, and their entire business case as a cloud monopoly evaporates. I think they know they're in a race between centralized control, and widespread use and control, and that is what is really driving this.

Yes, if you see the LLM as a compressed dictionary of all available information. But if they succeed with agentic reasoning models (we are absolutly not there yet) then I think meritocracy will be replaced with assetocracy. The better the model, the more expensive it will be and the better the software will be. I don’t worry about it myself, but I do worry for my kids. Im not even sure what to teach them anymore to h…

The best thing to teach them is how to use AI really well, how to be educated enough to do so, and perhaps how to improve AI.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#42

Post by chrisweekly »

Modified3019 wrote: post #37
NebulaStorm456 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are people who are experts in a generalist sense. When a new field opens up, they quickly snatch up the opportunity and make immense progress and name for themselves in the evolving field. So in this case the first author is the mouse who ate the cheese and died.

>is the mouse who ate the cheese and died. I don’t follow what this means

They're referencing a famous book / parable about navigating change in business, "Who Moved My Cheese"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Who_Moved_My_Cheese%3F

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#43

Post by danaris »

kronicum2025 wrote: post #18

I see a lot of comments here criticizing the author, and I think both teams have a point. There's definitely a bubble, because companies are buying up infrastructure which doesn't need to be used right now. But also, the companies are buying up this infrastructure because whoever controls the infrastructure also controls the industry in around 5 years time.

...if the bubble hasn't already popped by then.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#44

Post by boutell »

He lost me a bit at the end talking about running chat bots on CPUs. I know it's possible, but it's inherently parallel computing isn't it? Would that ever really make sense? I expected to hear something more like low end consumer gpus.

Recent generation llms do seem to have some significant efficiency gains. And routers to decide if you really need all of their power on a given question. And Google is building their custom tpus. So I'm not sure if I buy the idea that everyone ignores efficiency.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#45

Post by OutOfHere »

derf_ wrote: post #25
danielscrubs wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, if you see the LLM as a compressed dictionary of all available information. But if they succeed with agentic reasoning models (we are absolutly not there yet) then I think meritocracy will be replaced with assetocracy. The better the model, the more expensive it will be and the better the software will be. I don’t worry about it myself, but I do worry for my kids. Im not even sure what to teach them anymore to h…

Teach them basic financial literacy. The time value of money, the power of compounding, the relationship between risk and expected returns. Grade school does not cover any of this. It does not matter what your income is if you cannot budget and save.

Financial literacy is a red herring. If one only stores their savings in gold or an index fund, that gets them practically all the way there. It takes all of two minutes to teach it. It compounds itself.

Risk too is sort of a red herring. Just buy in whenever it dips, and you are set. Diversify just enough to dilute the aggregate risk, and it practically disappears.

Savings are not even possible with low income, only with medium to high income. The lesson to learn is to avoid wasteful excessive spending that benefits oneself only in the moment.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#46

Post by danaris »

jstummbillig wrote: post #36
Levitz wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can Satya Nadella be honest regarding this subject? "Ah yes we invested $13B into OpenAI but it's a bubble"

Being the CEO of a notable publicly traded company (and liable if caught lying about what they do with billions of shareholders dollars) surely a little more than random HN commentator without sources...?

And just when was the last time you saw CEO of a company as big as Microsoft "caught lying to shareholders" about anything actually face any punishment?

CEOs of big public companies lie to their shareholders all the time. It would be fantastic if they could be held accountable for those lies, but AFAIK when the SEC has tried, they always weasel out of it by saying things like "well, from what I knew at the time, it was true" or "if you interpret it this (ridiculous) way it was true". It's very, very hard to prove malicious intent—that is, prove what was going on in the CEO's head when they said it—with something like this beyond doubt, and that's effectively what's required.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#47

Post by gnat »

boutell wrote: post #44

He lost me a bit at the end talking about running chat bots on CPUs. I know it's possible, but it's inherently parallel computing isn't it? Would that ever really make sense? I expected to hear something more like low end consumer gpus. Recent generation llms do seem to have some significant efficiency gains. And routers to decide if you really need all of their power on a given question. And Google is building their…

(Hi, Tom!) Reread the article and look for “CPU”. The whole article is about doing deep learning on CPUs not GPUs. Moonshine, the open source project and startup he talks about, shows speech recognition and realtime translation on the device rather than on a server. My understanding is that doing The Math in parallel is itself a performance hack, but Doing Less Math is also a performance hack.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#48

Post by jumpman_miya »

chrisweekly wrote: post #39
greenchair wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Military then a trade then a small business with employees doing the trade then done.

Hard disagree. How is putting guns in your children's hands a wise and loving first step?

[dead]

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#49

Post by jsnell »

littlecranky67 wrote: post #16
Havoc wrote: post #14

Sounds like someone that got lucky in big picture (in ML during Alexnet era), but then unlucky in picking the sub-genre. >I see hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on hardware >I don’t see are people waving large checks at ML infrastructure engineers like me Which seemed like a valid question mark until you look at the github. I don't think we can conclude much of anything about the datacenter build out from…

> That's not the game the hyperscalers are playing The hyperscalers are playing the game hyperscalers are playing - and only them. Where do they expect to find talent then? If the logic is, you need to work at a hyperscaler to work at a hyperscaler, no wonder they won't find any talent. That would be like NASA only hiring astronauts to send to space if they had already experience being in space.

That's not the logic, they obviously hire from outside. The author's complaint is not that he can't get hired. He doesn't want to get hired, even! The complaint is rather that investors aren't funding his startup.

Re: I know we're in an AI bubble because nobody wants me

#50

Post by bathtub365 »

OutOfHere wrote: post #45
derf_ wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teach them basic financial literacy. The time value of money, the power of compounding, the relationship between risk and expected returns. Grade school does not cover any of this. It does not matter what your income is if you cannot budget and save.

Financial literacy is a red herring. If one only stores their savings in gold or an index fund, that gets them practically all the way there. It takes all of two minutes to teach it. It compounds itself. Risk too is sort of a red herring. Just buy in whenever it dips, and you are set. Diversify just enough to dilute the aggregate risk, and it practically disappears. Savings are not even possible with low income, only…

Plenty of people have bought what they thought was the dip, only to watch an instrument go to almost zero and never recover. Look at Bed Bath and Beyond. It’s not quite that simple.
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