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Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

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Re: Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn’t flag it, but it looks like accounting nonsense. These advance commitments probably aren’t assets on the books and there is likely no debt between OpenAI and its vendors. So at most, it’s a stock market bubble. If OpenAI doesn’t pay, its vendors have whatever data centers that they’ve built so far and can use them themselves or rent them to someone else.

I think the main point is in the closing of the article; that valuations of companies are driven up by OpenAI spent commitments, and that those companies combined now would represent 40% of S&P 500. You’re right, this is not accounting debt. I don’t think OpenAI’s spending commitments alone are the problem, but OpenAI imploding will have a cascading effect and a realization check for everyone in the industry. What ar…

If the bubble bursts then lots of investors will discover that they're poorer than they thought. I think the big tech firms will come out of it okay, though, due to holding lots of cash and little debt. They have other sources of income.

But apparently there are ways to keep the debt used to build data centers off the books? What happens if the data centers are no longer needed? I can't tell if that's an accounting fiction (the tech company has to buy the data centers anyway) or if the tech company can say "never mind, I don't need any more datacenters" and bondholders lose their money.

Re: Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

#42
post #16

what is this article/website? it’s all very confusing. a blog post? a community post? is there an author? I really don’t mean to concern troll or anything but this text is so bizarre, it’s like it landed from space into the middle of some random website.

Their about page: > TickerFeed is a discussion forum centered around the stock market, public companies, investing strategies, financial news, and economic trends. Our goal is to foster insightful conversations that help investors and market watchers make sense of financial movements. Basically HN but for financial folks.

... but available only to users of google/apple/microsoft:

https://tickerfeed.net/login

I'd be interested in an "HN for financial folks" but the very modest ability to handle auth/login is a minimum requirement for me ...

Re: Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

#43
post #42
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their about page: > TickerFeed is a discussion forum centered around the stock market, public companies, investing strategies, financial news, and economic trends. Our goal is to foster insightful conversations that help investors and market watchers make sense of financial movements. Basically HN but for financial folks.

... but available only to users of google/apple/microsoft: https://tickerfeed.net/login I'd be interested in an "HN for financial folks" but the very modest ability to handle auth/login is a minimum requirement for me ...

Sounds reasonable, but you posted it to the wrong forum ;)

Re: Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

#44

I'm fairly bearish on AI. It's the unbelievable time crunch that he expected that is going to bite him back, not the technology overall. AI does work, just not the way he wants it to. It isn't an instant money machine.

Current AI could be run as a normal profit making business if they just charged users what it costs to run. I think the current drive to either provide it at zero cost or force it on people who don't even want it is a mistake, both financially and for the environment.

Re: Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the main point is in the closing of the article; that valuations of companies are driven up by OpenAI spent commitments, and that those companies combined now would represent 40% of S&P 500. You’re right, this is not accounting debt. I don’t think OpenAI’s spending commitments alone are the problem, but OpenAI imploding will have a cascading effect and a realization check for everyone in the industry. What ar…

If the bubble bursts then lots of investors will discover that they're poorer than they thought. I think the big tech firms will come out of it okay, though, due to holding lots of cash and little debt. They have other sources of income. But apparently there are ways to keep the debt used to build data centers off the books? What happens if the data centers are no longer needed? I can't tell if that's an accounting f…

[deleted]

Re: Sam Altman Is Getting Desperate and It Is Starting to Show

#46
post #44

I'm fairly bearish on AI. It's the unbelievable time crunch that he expected that is going to bite him back, not the technology overall. AI does work, just not the way he wants it to. It isn't an instant money machine.

Current AI could be run as a normal profit making business if they just charged users what it costs to run. I think the current drive to either provide it at zero cost or force it on people who don't even want it is a mistake, both financially and for the environment.

I'd be genuinely curious what it ACTUALLY costs for a lot of these services. $10/mo for copilot I expect is entirely unsustainable, and the question is if it costs $20/mo, or $200/mo.
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