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How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

technologyreview.com

41–50 of 99 posts

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#41
post #26
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who tolerates a website which immediately pushes three overlapping pop-ups in free user's face? Why would anyone subject themselves to so much hatred? Have some standards.

You should probably ask an AI to read it and summarize it for you.

I see what you did there, and I approve.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#42
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who tolerates a website which immediately pushes three overlapping pop-ups in free user's face? Why would anyone subject themselves to so much hatred? Have some standards.

Who raw-dogs the internet without an adblocker? Have some standards.

Pi-hole and ad blocker, and I still repro.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#43
post #49

[stub for offtopicness]

Not one but TWO cookie consent banners, one with a huge list of radio buttons to disable, then two more banners, and 3 seconds into reading once again an ad blocks the screen. Who the heck tolerates this

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#44
Ray Kurzweil and his "Age of Spiritual Machines", which I read in 1999, is much more to blame than the others like Goertzel that came after him but Kurzweil doesn't get a mention. Kurzweil is also a MIT grad closely associated with MIT and possibly the MIT Technology Review.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#45

I remember when ChatGPT 3.5 was going to be AGI, then 4, then 4o, etc. It's kinda like the dooms day predictions, even if they fail it's ok. Because the next one though, oh that's the real doomsday. I, for one, am waiting for a true AI Scotsman [0]. [0]: https://idiallo.com/byte-size/ai-scotsman

I honestly don’t remember many if any people saying that at all, those would have been extremely fringe positions.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#47
post #49

[stub for offtopicness]

To those who say ”just use an adblocker” - if your local cafe had a group of waiters beating puppies right inside the entrance, would you just wear earplugs and close your eyes? Oh how low humanity has sunk when we accept such garbage.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#48
Imagine someone in the year 1900 started talking about moon landings, and risk of extinction from atomic weapons. A clearly unhinged individual.

That the claims appear extreme and apocalyptic doesn't tell us anything about correctness.

Yes, there are tons of people saying nonsense, but look back at events. For a while it seemed as though AI was improving extremely quickly. People extrapolated from that. I wouldn't call that extrapolation irrational or conspiratorial, even if it proves incorrect.

Re: How AGI became the most consequential conspiracy theory of our time

#50
I always find the claims that we'll have AGI impossible to believe, on the basis that nobody even knows what AGI is. The definition is so vague and hand-wavy that it might as well have never been defined in the first place. As in: I seriously can't think of a definition that would actually work. I'll explain my thought process, because I may be over-analyzing things.

If we define it as "a machine that can match humans on a wide range of cognitive tasks," that begs the questions: which humans? Which range? What cognitive tasks? I honestly think there is no answer you could give to these three alone that wouldn't cause everything to break down again:

For the first question, if you say "all humans," how do you measure that?

If we use IQs? If so, then you have just created an AI which is able to match the average IQ of whatever "all" happens to be. I'm pretty sure (though have no data to prove) that the vast super-majority of people don't take IQ tests, if they've ever even heard of them. So that limits your set to "all the IQ scores we have". But again... Who is we? Which test organization? There are quite a few IQ testing centers/orgs, and they all have variations in their metrics, scoring, weights, etc.

If you measure it by some other thing, what's the measurement? What's the thing? And, does that risk us spiraling into an infinite debate on what intelligence is? Because if so, the likelihood of us ever getting an AGI is nil. We've been trying to define intelligence for literally thousands of years and we still can't find a definition that is even halfway universal.

If you say anything other than all, like "the smartest humans" or "the humans we tested it against," well... Do I really need to explain how that breaks?

For the second and third questions, I honestly don't even know what you'd answer. Is there even one? Even if we collapse the second and third questions into "what wide range of cognitive tasks?", who creates the range of tasks? Are these tasks ones any human from, lets say, age 5 onward would be capable of doing? (Even if you answer yes here, what about those with learning disabilities or similar who may not be able to do whatever tasks you set at that age because it takes them longer to learn?) Or, are they tasks a PhD student would be able to do? (If you do this, then you've just broken the definition again.)

Even if we rewrite the definition to be narrower and less hand-wavy, like, an AI which matches some core properties or something, as was suggested elsewhere in these comments, who defines the properties? How do we measure them? How do we prove that us comparing the AI against these properties doesn't cause us to optimize for the lowest common denominator?

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