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Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

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Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#41

Post by legitster »

ambicapter wrote: post #8
abcd_f wrote: post #5

The market will correct before mid-terms next year. This is almost a certainty. By how much and when exactly - now, that's where the shorting profits are. PS. Burry infamously made several more bets after the "big short", bets that misfired. That is, his record is far from being 100% right.

What makes it an (almost) certainty?

It being a certainty is wrong, but there is a huge differential between the growth of total market value and the lackluster fundamentals, GDP growth, and jobs numbers.

To put another way, there's a lot of "potential energy" being built up in the markets right now. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll pop like a bubble - but there's really no precedent for them to continue rising.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#42

Post by UltraSane »

piltdownman wrote: post #18
prodigycorp wrote: post #4

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

You're betting against a middle-east Marshall Plan and AIPAC lobbyists vs. a company that just set up its AI industrial Hub in Europe and has some serious compute-engine hosting cost sticker-shock incoming. As far as I can see, shorting Thiel is shorting Israel at the moment. Don't do it while Trump is in Cabinet and pressuring Tel Aviv to pardon Bibi.

I will never understand what it is about Israel that makes people lose their minds.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#44

Post by [deleted] »

pinko wrote: post #26
JKCalhoun wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ask an LLM how to short specific stocks.

I did exactly this last Friday as an experiment and Claude Sonnet 4.5 recommended that I go long in an inverse ETF lol. When I told it that was terrible advice, it apologized and suggested buying puts.

[deleted]

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#45

Post by ivape »

piltdownman wrote: post #18
prodigycorp wrote: post #4

Palantir's valuation is far more egregious than Nvidia's. Palantir is Becky (IBM) with the good hair.

You're betting against a middle-east Marshall Plan and AIPAC lobbyists vs. a company that just set up its AI industrial Hub in Europe and has some serious compute-engine hosting cost sticker-shock incoming. As far as I can see, shorting Thiel is shorting Israel at the moment. Don't do it while Trump is in Cabinet and pressuring Tel Aviv to pardon Bibi.

That was actually my own gut reaction to Palantir's valuation. There is some massive entity that is propping that up, and I can easily see it being a state actor.

NVDA on the other hand ...

What are you going to really do about something that posts 40B+ in revenue every quarter? Okay, you can short it I suppose. You'd have to time it with the expected drop off in AI compute spend, which means if you have a history of being early (which Burry does), you will lose.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#46

Post by embedding-shape »

FanaHOVA wrote: post #34
_f9cu wrote: post #6

how to do such betting ?

The equivalent of "If you have to ask, you can't afford it" here is "If you have to ask, you shouldn't do it".

Overall for the common person I'd agree, but I assume we're all more or less hackers here and for us, I'd say "If you have to ask, ask and learn, then do it".

If everyone followed your advice no one would ever do anything, as we all begin somewhere, something that should OK.

Of course, don't do million dollar trades when you begin, but we shouldn't push back on people wanting to learn, feels very backwards compared to hacker ethos.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#48

Post by ProjectArcturis »

sfblah wrote: post #33

The problem with these kinds of bets is the Fed Put. That's the invisible force levitating stocks. I don't really see that changing unless/until the country genuinely enters a debt or currency crisis. The path is unsustainable, but they'll keep it going as long as they possibly can.

When Trump replaces Powell next year, the odds of the Fed doing something other than bathing a crisis in liquidity goes way up.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#49

Post by the__alchemist »

lvl155 wrote: post #28

Just because something is expensive doesn’t mean you should short it via puts as Burry had done. Both Palantir and Nvidia have high IVs. You’re paying for that. You’re much better off looking for cheaper puts on securities with enough correlation. Since Volmageddon and pandemic craze, deep OTM options have been scalped to death. Rarely good value. Nvidia also didn’t report earnings yet which means you’re paying for t…

Can someone explain why puts make sense over shorting? For example, I'm betting against 5 quantum computing companies with short positions. I considered adding puts to the position, but it didn't make sense based on 2 reasons: High bid ask spread, and if it's a fraudulent company/otherwise worth betting against, the volatility will be high, so you option costs too much compared to the upside; the amount it has to drop to break even is too big.

Re: Michael Burry a.k.a. "Big Short",discloses $1.1B bet against Nvidia&Palantir

#50

Post by prasadjoglekar »

_f9cu wrote: post #27
strictnein wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not usually a good idea if you're not a skilled investor, but here's a place to start: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/06/sellingoptions.a...

thanks! is my understanding right? I make a PUT option on a stock for a price. This price is usually lower than the current market price of the stock. 1.When I do that, the premium amount is to be paid by me when i make the PUT option or I get paid while making the PUT option. 2. Do I have to pay upfront money before hand, while making the PUT option? 3. Is there a deadline for my PUT option. For example, if it doesn…

If you buy a PUT, you pay the premium. You'll lose that if your option expires out of the money.

If you sell a PUT, your exposure is much greater; you're the one who has to pay up if the option ends up in the money.

The deadline is the date of the option.

If you do lose money, it's a capital loss (tax benefit) and vice versa for capital gains.

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