Tough truths about climate • Hacker News Board

Re: Tough truths about climate

#41

Post by jshen » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:08 AM UTC

Retric wrote: post #39

jshen wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're splitting hairs, but that still leaves the question, "what probability of societal collapse do you think is acceptable?

IMO it’s about minimizing harm at this point. There’s levels of societal collapse, mass migration can destroy the existing social fabric without necessarily being that terrible. Fertility rates being so low means developed countries will likely want large numbers of immigrants. At the other end stopping all CO2 production tomorrow would result in severe consequences. We can’t transport food to cities without burning…

I don't see any progress in terms of the rate of increase in atmospheric co2 over time.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/...

Re: Tough truths about climate

#42

Post by OtherShrezzing » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:12 AM UTC

I’m not sure this article is especially helpful. It’s addressed to the attendees of COP, but the attendees of COP already believe (almost unanimously) that adaptation has equal importance to mitigation. And it’s one of the only forums where poorer & disaffected nations are given a real opportunity.

I’m also not sure that anyone anywhere earnestly believes that climate change is an extinction level event that’ll render the entire planet unliveable. Certainly not the people at COP.

The piece seems unnecessarily broadly combative and contrarian.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#43

Post by fulafel » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:15 AM UTC

energy123 wrote: post #22

Animats wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on where you are in the world. For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. The US may have to give up on Miami and New Orleans, and build seawalls for New York. Some crops may have to be grown further north. Some irrigation systems will need upgrades. More power will be needed for air conditioning. Those will not seriously damage a society. After all, right now the biggest proble…

> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.

Also increased threat of far-right rule in democracies and general dehumanizing attitude toward people in trouble.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#44

Post by ares623 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:16 AM UTC

energy123 wrote: post #22

Animats wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on where you are in the world. For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. The US may have to give up on Miami and New Orleans, and build seawalls for New York. Some crops may have to be grown further north. Some irrigation systems will need upgrades. More power will be needed for air conditioning. Those will not seriously damage a society. After all, right now the biggest proble…

> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.

Food supply chains disrupted. Piracy will increase and spread.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#45

Post by jgord » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:20 AM UTC

Before I read the article, Ill summarize the facts that seem to be hard and true about climate :

- we are nearing or at +1.5C above pre-industrial baseline

- human carbon burning CO2 emissions are at a max and likely long plateau

- mean temp is rising by around +0.3C per decade

- we will be nearing +2.0C in around 15 years, 2040 give or take

- warming is mainly caused by us humans burning carbon, emitting CO2 and some CH4

- if we reach net-zero, we will be at peak CO2 and thus peak heat, for a long while

In addition, the only economically viable way to bring down the temp seems to be deliberate pollution by emitting sulphur or other particles aka Solar Radiation Management to brighten clouds, reduce heat absorption by the ocean. Volcanoes and shipping fuels have essentially proven that this brings down the temperature, in the short term.

We geo-engineered our way into this hot mess, and we will need to geo-engineer our way out of it.

If the temp reaches +2.5 or +3C .. I think that means quite a lot of crop failure, forced migration, geopolitical tension, lack of stable food supply.. and death to a large number of humans seems to follow logically from that.

So, now Ill look at the article to see if any of these tough truths were mentioned .. sorta-kinda no-so-much, it seems like he thinks things are not that urgent. ?!?

Re: Tough truths about climate

#46

Post by lucabs » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:21 AM UTC

[dead]

Re: Tough truths about climate

#47

Post by ACCount37 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:21 AM UTC

OtherShrezzing wrote: post #42

I’m not sure this article is especially helpful. It’s addressed to the attendees of COP, but the attendees of COP already believe (almost unanimously) that adaptation has equal importance to mitigation. And it’s one of the only forums where poorer & disaffected nations are given a real opportunity. I’m also not sure that anyone anywhere earnestly believes that climate change is an extinction level event that’ll rende…

> I’m also not sure that anyone anywhere earnestly believes that climate change is an extinction level event that’ll render the entire planet unliveable. Certainly not the people at COP.

A lot of people do believe that, unfortunately. Decades worth of the most alarmist coverage possible sure didn't help the public awareness.

Now, people at COP? Hopefully not. But COP doesn't end with the people at COP. And there are a lot of people in this very thread whose reaction to "climate change cannot cause extinction of humankind" is shock and disbelief.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#48

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:22 AM UTC

energy123 wrote: post #22

Animats wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on where you are in the world. For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. The US may have to give up on Miami and New Orleans, and build seawalls for New York. Some crops may have to be grown further north. Some irrigation systems will need upgrades. More power will be needed for air conditioning. Those will not seriously damage a society. After all, right now the biggest proble…

> For the developed world, climate change will be annoying but not serious. Spillover of problems like mass migration away from the equator and increase in conflicts.

[deleted]

Re: Tough truths about climate

#49

Post by johngossman » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:24 AM UTC

This is one of these nuanced takes that will please few. It acknowledges all sorts of uncertainty and adopts ethical priorities that cannot be established empirically even if (unlikely) the facts are universally agreed upon. I applaud the attempt and wish there could be real debate over this and other complex positions.

Re: Tough truths about climate

#50

Post by ACCount37 » Tue, Oct 28, 2025, 6:25 AM UTC

andsoitis wrote: post #3

”Unfortunately, the doomsday outlook is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emissions goals, and it’s diverting resources from the most effective things we should be doing to improve life in a warming world.” How do we change incentives to be long-term aligned rather than counter-productive, anxious short-termism?

I'm afraid that humanity doesn't have sufficiently advanced incentive-engineering technology for that.

Solving climate change is really really hard. Solving mass media being biased towards alarmism and allergic to nuance, decision-makers in politics and at corporations favoring short-term thinking? Hard enough to make solving climate change look easy.