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Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

news.ycombinator.com

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Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#41

Post by XiphiasX »

constantcrying wrote: post #20
XiphiasX wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So...the big fish set up a plan to transition "everyone" to their new Bitcoin 2.0. (Before the supposed "quantum crypto" smashes the punch bowl.) A bunch of the little people are unable or unwilling to transition. On the day the miners stop recognizing the old-crypto wallets & keys, those all become worthless. But that’s not the case. The should be transitioning NOW, but that’s not happening. Also, even if it was d…

>The should be transitioning NOW, but that’s not happening. Can quantum computers factor arbitrary numbers with 4 digits already?

No, but when they can it will be too late, so systems should be transitioning NOW.

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#42

Post by XiphiasX »

constantcrying wrote: post #35
trallnag wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it non-functional? Over ten years ago I was able to use Bitcoin to buy stuff on one of the Silkroad derivatives. And I assume this is still possible to this day. It's better than nothing.

>Why is it non-functional? The main reason, ironically, is because it can not be regulated. This puts it in direct conflict with every government, who all desire control over their own currency. This guarantees that Bitcoin will only ever be used for things which can only happen outside a regulated banking system. It is also not particularly good at criminal transactions, since it is more transparent than a bank acco…

How can you not understand. Bitcoin’s main and only FEATURE is the fact than from all assets in this planet, and possibly from all assets jn this Solar System, it CANNOT be cofniscated and censored. That’s the knly reason it has any value at all, to circumvent controls. All other assets like gold, real estate, emeralds, fiat, stocks… CAN be confiscated. Bitcoin’s only unique selling point is circumvention of controls.

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#43

Post by i80and »

XiphiasX wrote: post #38
amanaplanacanal wrote: post #18

Why do you think quantum computers are going to get that good in the next couple of years? I suspect the odds of that happening are approximately zero.

Because advanacements accelerate with geometric progression, not linear one.

You asked the question, but don't want to hear the answer.

Advancements are more often logarithmic than geometric: a brief flurry of progress as easy barriers are overcome, followed by a long unsexy slog of incrementalism.

Bitcoin may well be broken someday, but the time scale is on decades, which is well beyond the horizon for high-volatility markets like Bitcoin

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#44

Post by i80and »

XiphiasX wrote: post #5
cinntaile wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could consider the price functions as a prediction market; it's telling you smart money doesn't believe it will be cracked around 2027-2028.

Look, even experts say Bitcoin will be cracked at 2030 worst. That’s only 5 years away. Even if it’s 5 years, not 2, why is it 110k? Gold should be outperforming BTC, but it isn’t. What am I missing???

No experts think this. You are consuming extremely bad information.

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#45

Post by ArtTimeInvestor »

The way I understand it:

Introducing quantum resistant addresses is possible via a soft-fork, so rather easy.

Work on it already started: https://github.com/jlopp/bips/blob/quantum_migration/bip-pos...

If capable quantum computers become more probable and the soft fork is not already happening, it will be accelerated. And then everybody will move their coins to quantum resistant addresses.

So it does not look like a major problem. It will lower the price a bit though. Because old, lost coins will be revived and come to the market.

There will also be some type of war around "code is law" because some people will suggest to invalidate old coins on non-quantum-resistant addresses. That will be interesting to watch.

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#46

Post by lossolo »

XiphiasX wrote: post #5
cinntaile wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could consider the price functions as a prediction market; it's telling you smart money doesn't believe it will be cracked around 2027-2028.

Look, even experts say Bitcoin will be cracked at 2030 worst. That’s only 5 years away. Even if it’s 5 years, not 2, why is it 110k? Gold should be outperforming BTC, but it isn’t. What am I missing???

Answering your question, "experts" you write about are delusional.

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#47

Post by XiphiasX »

i80and wrote: post #44
XiphiasX wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, even experts say Bitcoin will be cracked at 2030 worst. That’s only 5 years away. Even if it’s 5 years, not 2, why is it 110k? Gold should be outperforming BTC, but it isn’t. What am I missing???

No experts think this. You are consuming extremely bad information.

Why???

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#48

Post by constantcrying »

XiphiasX wrote: post #42
constantcrying wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Why is it non-functional? The main reason, ironically, is because it can not be regulated. This puts it in direct conflict with every government, who all desire control over their own currency. This guarantees that Bitcoin will only ever be used for things which can only happen outside a regulated banking system. It is also not particularly good at criminal transactions, since it is more transparent than a bank acco…

How can you not understand. Bitcoin’s main and only FEATURE is the fact than from all assets in this planet, and possibly from all assets jn this Solar System, it CANNOT be cofniscated and censored. That’s the knly reason it has any value at all, to circumvent controls. All other assets like gold, real estate, emeralds, fiat, stocks… CAN be confiscated. Bitcoin’s only unique selling point is circumvention of controls…

I do understand all of that. But all of that makes sure that Bitcoin will never function as a currency, as outlined in the reasons above.

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#49

Post by einsteinx2 »

> Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

Because the current state of the art in Quantum can only factor 2 digit numbers (maybe) and are probably decades away or breaking traditional encryption or Bitcoin.

> Smart entities are able to extrapolate and understand that quantum computers will be able to crack encryption before 2030 due to accelerating advancements both in intelligence and quantum computers.

This is false. What “smart money” do you know that has indicated they believe this?

>Accelerating advancements, not linear.

Also false. What gives you the impression that this is true? Quantum computing is definitely not increasing at an exponential rate, and LLMs have already hit the top of the S-curve and new models are not exponentially better than previous models, they’re incrementally better.

> So smart money knows that there is not an unreasonable chance Bitcoin gets cracked at around 2027-2028.

Again false. Why do you believe that “smart money” believes this?

Could it be that you believe it, but smart money does not which is why they are still investing in Bitcoin?

Re: Can someone explain why Bitcoin isn't crashing due to quantum?

#50

Post by XiphiasX »

constantcrying wrote: post #48
XiphiasX wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you not understand. Bitcoin’s main and only FEATURE is the fact than from all assets in this planet, and possibly from all assets jn this Solar System, it CANNOT be cofniscated and censored. That’s the knly reason it has any value at all, to circumvent controls. All other assets like gold, real estate, emeralds, fiat, stocks… CAN be confiscated. Bitcoin’s only unique selling point is circumvention of controls…

I do understand all of that. But all of that makes sure that Bitcoin will never function as a currency, as outlined in the reasons above.

Yes, and it doesn’t have to function as currency. We have enough of those already!
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