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Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

anthropic.com

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Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And your claim is that those will never be solved? As a professional robotics engineer I can tell you for a fact they are coming soon.

you are talking high cost emvironments, at least for the moment? Come on... show me a robot that can run a farm that grows organic produce at an affordable price. It is the lowest wage job out there. Automating it would make prices far out of range for the 99% - but the billionaires could care less?

You need an AI to do that, affordable robots are already here but the intelligence is not.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#42

Much like the end of history wasn’t the end of history LLM-Attention centric AI isn’t the end of AI development So if they are successful at locking in it will be at their own demise because it doesn’t cover the infinity many pathways for AI to continue down, specifically intersections with robotics and physical manipulation, that are ultimately way more impactful on society. Until the plurality of humans on the eart…

I highly doubt there is ever going to be "effective governance" of technology for multiple reasons. It would require impossible foreknowledge of the impacts of every possible tech and dystopian levels of control to prevent new ideas from coming into play. We cannot even get the direction of impact right a-priori. Even if they had that this dystopia would have to remain both stable and unmutated over generations. All…

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Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#43

If you write policy about AI you're doing it wrong. AI is an implementation, but policies must be written for outcomes. Discrimination by law enforcement, exclusion from loan approval, bad moderation on social networking, cheating on exams, creating fake news or media about people, swallowing up user data... all the negative social impact of AI can be achieved without it, and much of it is already illegal anyway. Leg…

One outcome which is not unique to AI, but fairly exclusive: The value of human cognitive labor eventually drops below subsistence income. This isn't here, yet; but it's a hard problem so we should be devoting substantial resources to solutions before it hits.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#44

If you write policy about AI you're doing it wrong. AI is an implementation, but policies must be written for outcomes. Discrimination by law enforcement, exclusion from loan approval, bad moderation on social networking, cheating on exams, creating fake news or media about people, swallowing up user data... all the negative social impact of AI can be achieved without it, and much of it is already illegal anyway. Leg…

> all the negative social impact of AI can be achieved without it,

With the big differences being massive automatisation, huge reduction of cost and no one to blame when things go wrong... It's like saying a nuke and a knife are the same because they both kill

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#45

i see the comments here are pretty cynical about this post, and probably for good reason. especially "you might have to start taxing consumption instead of income because people won't have income anymore" but at least a couple of these proposals seem to boil down to needing to tax the absolute crap out of the AI companies. which seems pretty obviously true, and its interesting that the ai companies are already saying…

> its interesting that the ai companies are already saying that. This is just cheap PR to launder legitimacy and urgency. To create false equivalence between AI agent and an employee. I think this is a sign of weakness, having seen AI rolled out in many companies where it already shows signs of being absolute disaster (like summaries changing meaning and losing important details - so tasks go in wrong direction and t…

Personally, if I were going to publish something like this as a leader of a major AI company today, I would actually try very hard to put together a good faith proposal that I genuinely believed to be in the best interests of the public.

I can't speak to this particular proposal or the motivations behind it, but I think my approach is the smart play in the present circumstances. Why publish something brazenly self-serving that will at best be forgotten two weeks later, or at worst be added to the list of reasons a bunch of people have to hate you, when you could instead earn some goodwill as a benevolent thought leader and maybe get some academics and politicians to come out of the woodwork backing your ideas?

If the industry is successful and a particular player doesn't fall behind the competition, they're going to be making obscene amounts of money regardless. Better to have a happy and successful public that can't imagine life without you than a public in Great-Depression-like conditions that wants you dead and will only vote for politicians who campaign on banning your product.

As an aside, I'm not sold on the idea of taxes that specifically increase the cost of AI. I don't think it's wise to disincentivize AI usage or artificially inflate costs. (That would particularly hurt anyone with use cases that aren't connected to immediate profit.) If AI has the impact most of us would like it to have, the economy will become way more productive and the public will get its share of that through corporate taxes anyway. I'd rather just close tax loopholes and start laying the groundwork for a future system of distributing resources in a post-employment world.

My current preference is a guaranteed educational/training stipend for any unemployed adult who wants one, and changing the standard career advice for the next generation from "learn to code" to "learn to startup". Looking forward a decade from now, if employment as we know it is scarce, but the economy is flush with capital and automated labor is dirt cheap, it seems to me that self-employment will reemerge as the dominant career path — and anyone who can't raise funding for their business (or acquire grants for their research) will simply need to keep leveling up until they can. Maybe eventually we'll have the resources to transition to a full UBI, but in the meantime, we'd need a transitional system that could provide for the unemployed masses without incentivizing everyone else to suddenly quit jobs that were still necessary. Just my 2c.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#46

The most immediate impact might be the bursting of the AI bubble and a dotcom-like crash of tech stocks and businesses like Anthropic. Financial circularity could also lead to instability.

>bursting of the AI bubble

I hope people will eventually revisit these predictions and admit they were wrong.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#47
> "you might have to start taxing consumption instead of income because people won't have income anymore"

Proposal written by billionaire trying to shift taxation even more away from themselves and even more to everyone else.

> Accelerate permits and approvals for AI infrastructure

Oh, they want that? Who would not say.

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#48
post #43

If you write policy about AI you're doing it wrong. AI is an implementation, but policies must be written for outcomes. Discrimination by law enforcement, exclusion from loan approval, bad moderation on social networking, cheating on exams, creating fake news or media about people, swallowing up user data... all the negative social impact of AI can be achieved without it, and much of it is already illegal anyway. Leg…

One outcome which is not unique to AI, but fairly exclusive: The value of human cognitive labor eventually drops below subsistence income. This isn't here, yet; but it's a hard problem so we should be devoting substantial resources to solutions before it hits.

"No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have researched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby."

>> https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/H._L._Mencken

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#49

If you write policy about AI you're doing it wrong. AI is an implementation, but policies must be written for outcomes. Discrimination by law enforcement, exclusion from loan approval, bad moderation on social networking, cheating on exams, creating fake news or media about people, swallowing up user data... all the negative social impact of AI can be achieved without it, and much of it is already illegal anyway. Leg…

Oh, so we can't address any specific problems with any technology, because we should actually be fixing all of society at the root of all those problems. So while you wait for our broken political system to solve those root causes, enjoy feeling smug about not having implemented any imperfect, temporary bandaids to stop some bleeding. Are you working on fixing those root problems? Or after dismissing short term polic…

> So while you wait for our broken political system

Yeah we better let these important topics in the hands of very stable people like Musk or Thiel, they for sure know what the people want

> make more money in the short run if governments don't do any tech regulation in the short run?

"Money money money money", homo sapiens decerebration under capitalism is quite something to witness. Maybe just maybe there is more to life than raw productivity and money... The root causes you're talking about are greed and an unbound quest for "progress", piling more in top will certainly not help

Re: Preparing for AI's economic impact: exploring policy responses

#50
post #31

I'm having trouble understanding what they want to "upskill" those people to do. What skills won't be replaced? The only ones I can think of either have a large physical component, or are only doable by a tiny fraction of the current workforce. As for the ones with a physical component (plumbers being the most cited), the cognitive parts of the job (the "skilled" part of skilled labor) can be replaced while having th…

I don't think "replaced" is a good word here.. augmented and expanded. With AI we are expanding our activities, users expect more, competition forces companies to do more. But AI can't be held liable for its actions, that is one role. It has no direct access to the context it is working in, so it needs humans as a bridge. In the end AI produce outcomes in the same local context, which is for the user. So from intent…

> I don't think "replaced" is a good word here.. augmented and expanded. With AI we are expanding our activities, users expect more, competition forces companies to do more.

Daily reminder that the vast majority of value generated by productivity boost brought by technology in the last 50 years doesn't benefit the workers

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSG4s-x...

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