Live data from Hacker News

After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

blog.robbowley.net

41–50 of 489 posts

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#41

The singularity. I don't think most authors of articles like these understand what the AI build up is about, they think it's another fad tool.

We've had AI booms before. In terms of capabilities, this one is following exactly the same trajectory. Human researchers come up with some sort of breakthrough improvement to AI methods, that results in exponential like growth of capability as we both solve the low hanging fruit the method offers at it, and scale up the compute and data available to the limits of what is useful for the method. Then, capabilities start to plateau, and there is a long tail of the new techniques being applied in specific situations as they get combined with domain specific tuning and architecture.

We are well into this process already. Core chat capabilities have pretty much stalled out. But most of the attempts at application are still very thin layers over chat bots.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#42
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we make money on it, especially if massive amounts of the population lose their jobs?

dude again, we have computers that can talk and make decisions. We have birthed something here. We have something, this is big.

I had a computer that could talk and make decisions in 1982. It sounded pretty robotic and the decisions were 1982-level AI: Lots of if statements.

I'm not really trying to be snarky; I'm trying to point out to you that you're being really vague. And that when you actually get really, really concrete about what we have it ... starts to seem a little less magical than saying "computers that talk and think". Computers that are really quite good at sampling from a distribution of high-likelihood next language tokens based upon complex and long context window is still a pretty incredible thing, but it seems a little less likely to put us all out of a job in the next 10 years.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

who cares about a bubble? we are on the cusp of intelligent machines. The implications will last for hundreds of years, maybe impact the trajectory of humanity

My dude, it's literally just fancy autocomplete and isn't intelligent at all.

What makes you so sure that you aren't just fancy autocomplete?

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#44
post #4

I cant believe people still arent grasping the profound implications of computers that can talk and make decisions.

..except they can't

It's blatantly obvious to see if you work with something you personally have a lot of expertise in. They're effectively advanced search engines. Useful sure.. but they're not anywhere close to "making decisions"

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#45
post #17

He writes as if only datacenters and network equipment remain after the AI bubble bursts. Like there won't be any AI models anymore, nothing left after the big training runs and trillion-dollar R&D, and no inference served.

The point is, after the bubble burst, will there be enough funds, cash flow and... a viable market, to make these still run?

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#46
post #17

He writes as if only datacenters and network equipment remain after the AI bubble bursts. Like there won't be any AI models anymore, nothing left after the big training runs and trillion-dollar R&D, and no inference served.

Who's going to pay to run those models? They are currently running at a huge loss.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#47
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How do we make money on it, especially if massive amounts of the population lose their jobs?

dude again, we have computers that can talk and make decisions. We have birthed something here. We have something, this is big.

Define "make decisions" such that an 'if' statement does not qualify but an llm does.

LLMs may be a stepping stone to AGI. It's impressive tech. But nobody's proven anything like that yet, and you're running on pure faith not facts here.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anyone underestimates that and a lot of people can't wait to see it.

anyone mentioning a bubble is underestimating the gravity of whats going on

I'm old enough to have heard this before, once or thrice.

It's always different this time.

More seriously: there are decent arguments that say that LLMs have an upper bound of usefulness and that we're not necessarily closer to transcending that with a different AI technology than we were 10 or 30 years ago.

The LLMs we have, even if they are approaching an upper bound, are a big deal. They're very interesting and have lots of applications. These applications might be net-negative or net-positive, it will probably vary by circumstance. But they might not become what you're extrapolating them into.

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#49

> Most of the money is being spent on incredibly expensive GPUs that have a 1-3 year lifespan due to becoming obsolete quickly and wearing out under constant, high-intensity use. How about chips during the dotcom period? What was their lifespan?

That’s irrelevant because the primary assets left after the dotcom bubble was fiber in the ground with a lifetime measure in decades.

[deleted]

Re: After the AI boom: what might we be left with?

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can have a bubble, and still have profound impact from AI. See also the dotcom boom.

who cares about a bubble? we are on the cusp of intelligent machines. The implications will last for hundreds of years, maybe impact the trajectory of humanity

brother please
Post reply on HN